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Forecast

Ernabella (23.6971°S, 133.8725°E, 576m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Mostly sunny 21°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:53am CST 7:17am CST 6:02pm CST 6:27pm CST
    NOW
    5.6° Feels Like: 2.7°
    Relative Humidity: 50%
    Dew: -4.0°
    Wind: N 2km/h
    Gust: 4km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1022.6hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Ernabella
    Now
    10.7°c
    Feels Like:
    6.5°
    Wind:
    SSE 9km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    36%
    Mostly sunny
     
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Ernabella
    Mostly sunny. Light winds.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Sunny. Areas of morning frost. Light winds becoming S 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Ernabella

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Light winds.

    Forecast for Ernabella (23.6971°S, 133.8725°E, 576m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Mostly sunny Frost then sunny Mostly sunny Frost then sunny Frost then sunny Frost then sunny Frost then sunny
    Minimum
    Maximum 21° 23° 19° 17° 18° 19° 20°
    Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate High Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Moderate Moderate Slight High High High High
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 1
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    0
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    2
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    Wind direction ENE ESE NNW SSE S SSE S SSE ESE ESE E E ENE ESE
    Relative humidity 46% 24% 41% 15% 54% 32% 55% 31% 58% 26% 55% 24% 49% 22%
    Dew point -2°C -0°C -2°C -5°C 1°C 2°C -1°C -0°C 0°C -2°C -0°C -2°C -1°C -2°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Ernabella Rain Forecast


    Ernabella 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    5
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 July to 24 July, 27 July to 31 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 July to 25 July, and 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 July to 25 July, 29 July to 2 August, and 2 August to 6 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Ernabella Rain Forecast


    Ernabella 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    7
    9
    8
    7
    8
    8
    8
    1
    8
    2
    8
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Ernabella Rain Forecast


    Ernabella 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    5
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 July to 24 July, 27 July to 31 July, and 31 July to 4 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 July to 25 July, and 10 August to 14 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 July to 25 July, 29 July to 2 August, and 2 August to 6 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Ernabella Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Jul 04
    5.9 °C 16.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Jul 05
    3.7 °C 18.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jul 06
    -0.2 °C 16.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jul 07
    -0.7 °C 17.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 08
    -0.3 °C 17.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Ernabella minimum temp history (23.6971°S, 133.8725°E, 576m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 27.6° 01/07/2020 Coldest this month -0.7° 07/07/2020
    Hottest on record 31.6 23/07/1996 Coldest on record -7.5 17/07/1976
    Hottest this year 43.0° 03/01/2020 Coldest this year -0.9° 28/06/2020
    Long term average 19.7° Long term average 4.0°
    Average this month 18.7° Average this month 3.2°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 22.9° 2000 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. -1.0° 1977
    Ernabella rainfall history (23.6971°S, 133.8725°E, 576m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/07/2020 Total This Month 0.0mm
    0.0 days
    Long Term Average 15.1mm 2.6 days Wettest July on record 144.0mm 1986
    Driest on record 0.0mm 1942
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NT

  16. Year to Date

    Ernabella Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 178.4mm 23.1 day(s)
    Total For 2020 90.4mm 11.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 46.8mm 12.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 25.4mm Mar 3
    Lowest Temperature -0.9°C Jun28
    Highest Temperature 43.0°C Jan 3
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Ernabella Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 36.3 35.1 32.8 28.3 23.1 19.8 19.7 22.7 27.3 31.1 33.7 35.4 28.8
    Mean Min (°C) 21.5 20.7 17.5 12.6 8.2 5.0 4.0 6.0 10.3 14.7 17.9 20.3 13.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 41.1 42.5 30.8 16.7 18.7 13.5 15.1 9.0 8.7 20.3 28.1 39.2 284.4
    Mean Rain Days 4.8 4.6 3.2 2.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 1.9 2.4 4.4 5.5 6.1 42.6