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Forecast

Brunchilly (19.6511°S, 134.1843°E, 378m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly cloudy 13° 22°
    mostly cloudy
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:45am CST 7:08am CST 6:07pm CST 6:31pm CST
    NOW
    13.4° Feels Like: 5.2°
    Relative Humidity: 41%
    Dew: 0.4°
    Wind: ESE 32km/h
    Gust: 48km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1026.4hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Brunchilly
    Now
    8.6°c
    Feels Like:
    5.6°
    Wind:
    S 6km/h
    Gusts:
    7km/h
    Humidity:
    60%
    Mostly cloudy
     
    13°
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Today in Brunchilly
    Less humid and sunny. Winds SE 25 to 35 km/h.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    13°
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Sunny. Winds SE 20 to 30 km/h.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Brunchilly

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Less humid and sunny. Winds SE 25 to 35 km/h.

    Forecast for Brunchilly (19.6511°S, 134.1843°E, 378m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Mostly cloudy Sunny Sunny Sunny Sunny Sunny Sunny
    Minimum 13° 13° 11° 11° 12° 13° 14°
    Maximum 22° 22° 23° 25° 25° 26° 27°
    Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index High High High High High - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 40
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    34
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SE SE SE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE SE SE SE SE SE SE
    Relative humidity 38% 20% 36% 20% 30% 17% 34% 16% 34% 19% 34% 25% 38% 26%
    Dew point 1°C -2°C 0°C -2°C -3°C -3°C -1°C -2°C -0°C 0°C 1°C 5°C 3°C 6°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Brunchilly Rain Forecast


    Brunchilly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Aug 1
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 30 July to 3 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 July to 17 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 6 August to 10 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 31 July to 4 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Brunchilly Rain Forecast


    Brunchilly 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    2020
    2021
    9
    9
    9
    8
    7
    9
    9
    1
    7
    8
    3
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Brunchilly Rain Forecast


    Brunchilly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    Aug 1
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 30 July to 3 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 July to 17 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 6 August to 10 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 31 July to 4 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Brunchilly Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jun 29
    12.4 °C 25.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jun 30
    13.8 °C 27.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 01
    15.0 °C 30.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 02
    15.6 °C 30.1 °C
    -
    Friday
    Jul 03
    17.6 °C 26.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Brunchilly minimum temp history (19.6511°S, 134.1843°E, 378m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 30.1° 02/07/2020 Coldest this month 15.0° 01/07/2020
    Hottest on record 34.7 16/07/1995 Coldest on record 4.5 14/07/1978
    Hottest this year 43.8° 15/01/2020 Coldest this year 6.7° 23/05/2020
    Long term average 24.6° Long term average 12.3°
    Average this month 27.2° Average this month 16.1°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.9° 1975 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 10.2° 1977
    Brunchilly rainfall history (19.6511°S, 134.1843°E, 378m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/07/2020 Total This Month 0.0mm
    0.0 days
    Long Term Average 5.0mm 0.7 days Wettest July on record 74.2mm 1978
    Driest on record 0.0mm 1970
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NT

  16. Year to Date

    Brunchilly Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 328.2mm 30.4 day(s)
    Total For 2020 343.2mm 28.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 30.4mm 12.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 86.4mm Feb 2
    Lowest Temperature 6.7°C May23
    Highest Temperature 43.8°C Jan15
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Brunchilly Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 36.6 35.7 34.5 31.8 27.7 24.5 24.6 27.5 31.7 34.8 36.5 37.1 31.9
    Mean Min (°C) 24.9 24.4 23.3 20.4 16.4 12.9 12.3 14.4 18.4 21.7 23.8 24.8 19.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 118.4 121.2 53.1 16.7 8.1 5.7 5.0 2.5 7.8 19.5 40.3 77.0 476.1
    Mean Rain Days 10.1 9.3 5.9 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.9 3.6 5.6 8.3 49.5