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Forecast

Warrumbungle (31.2776°S, 148.982°E, 438m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Possible shower
    possible shower
    Chance of rain: 70%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:19am EST 6:44am EST 5:33pm EST 5:58pm EST
    NOW
    6.4° Feels Like: 2.6°
    Relative Humidity: 87%
    Dew: 4.4°
    Wind: NW 13km/h
    Gust: 17km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure: 1015.2hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Warrumbungle
    Now
    8.5°c
    Feels Like:
    6.8°
    Wind:
    N 7km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    99%
    Possible shower
     
    Min
    Max
    Today in Warrumbungle
    Cloudy. Areas of morning fog. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending S/SW in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 14.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    Min
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the northeast in the early morning. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending S/SE 25 to 35 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 4 with daytime temperatures reaching between 15 and 18.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Warrumbungle

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Areas of morning fog. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending S/SW in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 14.

    Forecast for Warrumbungle (31.2776°S, 148.982°E, 438m AMSL)
      Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    Summary Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Rain Rain
    Minimum 10°
    Maximum 14° 15° 16° 19° 15° 14°
    Chance of rain 70% 10% 20% 20% 50% 90% 90%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 20-40mm 10-20mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 14
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW W SSW S ESE ENE NNE N N NW NNE NNE N NNW
    Relative humidity 89% 72% 87% 61% 84% 55% 85% 64% 80% 52% 83% 80% 96% 84%
    Dew point 5°C 4°C 7°C 6°C 6°C 6°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 11°C 10°C 11°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Warrumbungle Rain Forecast


    Warrumbungle 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    HIGH
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    HIGH
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 August to 26 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 5 September to 9 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Warrumbungle Rain Forecast


    Warrumbungle 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    8
    7
    9
    8
    7
    7
    10
    7
    6
    5
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 5

    ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific show a slight decrease in the intensity of cooling compared to June, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.0 in July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 4.2 in the same month, a swing into positive values compared to June. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific through the end of winter and potentially reach La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring, with four of these indicating La Nina by Spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 54:41 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Two of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becoming established during the Austral spring, with the remaining four indicating a neutral phase. Of the four neutral models, including the BOM, three are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, with only the Canadian model trending positive. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short-term outlook favours above average rainfall across most of Australia over the next fortnight, with the exception of western TAS, far southern VIC, and northern QLD and the NT. These expected wetter than average conditions will likely be due to the passage of moisture troughs inland and fronts, in part driven by the positive SAM. Models are then indicating a continued trend to above average rainfall for inland SA, all but the far north of the NT, western, central and southern QLD, northern and western NSW and parts of southern WA. Parts of WA’s Pilbara and Kimberley however are showing signs of below average rainfall into early spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Warrumbungle Rain Forecast


    Warrumbungle 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    HIGH
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    24
    LOW
    25
    HIGH
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 August to 26 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 5 September to 9 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Warrumbungle Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Tuesday
    Aug 04
    -0.7 °C 19.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Aug 05
    1.0 °C 12.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Aug 06
    -4.0 °C 13.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Aug 07
    2.0 °C 10.7 °C
    0.2 mm
    Saturday
    Aug 08
    7.4 °C -
    21.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Warrumbungle minimum temp history (31.2776°S, 148.982°E, 438m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 19.4° 02/08/2020 Coldest this month -4.0° 06/08/2020
    Hottest on record 29.0 23/08/2009 Coldest on record -7.6 05/08/1994
    Hottest this year 42.4° 05/01/2020 Coldest this year -4.0° 06/08/2020
    Long term average 17.0° Long term average 1.1°
    Average this month 16.6° Average this month -0.8°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.6° 1982 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. -2.2° 1994
    Warrumbungle rainfall history (31.2776°S, 148.982°E, 438m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 21.0mm 08/08/2020 Total This Month 21.2mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 52.5mm 7.3 days Wettest August on record 224.6mm 1886
    Driest on record 0.0mm 1914
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Warrumbungle Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 504.9mm 53.5 day(s)
    Total For 2020 679.5mm 69.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 234.2mm 37.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 62.5mm Feb19
    Lowest Temperature -4.0°C Aug 6
    Highest Temperature 42.4°C Jan 5
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Warrumbungle Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 31.4 30.7 28.1 24.1 19.5 16.0 15.1 17.0 20.4 24.2 27.5 30.2 23.7
    Mean Min (°C) 15.6 15.2 12.1 7.5 3.8 1.6 0.4 1.1 3.9 7.5 10.9 13.6 7.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 89.7 81.0 63.5 52.0 53.5 57.5 55.2 52.5 51.3 59.4 64.4 70.4 750.1
    Mean Rain Days 7.2 6.3 5.8 5.1 6.2 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.3 80.9