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Forecast

Warregah Island (29.3988°S, 153.2216°E, 0m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Sunny 23°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:07am EST 6:32am EST 5:14pm EST 5:39pm EST
    NOW
    10.9° Feels Like: 8.3°
    Relative Humidity: 82%
    Dew: 8.0°
    Wind: W 11km/h
    Gust: 13km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1020.8hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Warregah Island
    Now
    14.8°c
    Feels Like:
    12.8°
    Wind:
    N 9km/h
    Gusts:
    11km/h
    Humidity:
    68%
    Sunny
     
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Today in Warregah Island
    Sunny. Patchy fog early this morning. Light winds becoming NW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending N in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    13°
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Sunny. The chance of fog inland in the early morning. Light winds becoming NW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Sunny. Patchy fog early this morning. Light winds becoming NW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending N in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

    Forecast for Warregah Island (29.3988°S, 153.2216°E, 0m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Sunny Sunny Clearing shower Possible shower Sunny Sunny Sunny
    Minimum 13° 16° 16° 11°
    Maximum 23° 27° 22° 25° 21° 20° 20°
    Chance of rain 5% 40% 60% 40% 5% 5% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 9
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNW NE N NNE S SSE N NW W SW W SE WSW SE
    Relative humidity 73% 57% 71% 62% 83% 77% 85% 60% 52% 40% 60% 46% 65% 54%
    Dew point 9°C 13°C 14°C 18°C 17°C 17°C 17°C 16°C 5°C 6°C 6°C 7°C 8°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Warregah Island Rain Forecast


    Warregah Island 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    Aug 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Warregah Island Rain Forecast


    Warregah Island 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2021
    2022
    8
    7
    7
    8
    7
    8
    7
    7
    6
    7
    7
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 13

    ENSO status: Neutral, however two models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again from September. IOD status: Neutral, although it was negative for six weeks between mid-May and late-June SAM status: Negative. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, prompting the US Climate Prediction Centre to issue a La Niña Watch this week. Two models forecast temperatures reaching the La Niña threshold during September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although we saw six consecutive weeks below the negative IOD threshold between mid-May and late-June. The IOD index needs to stay below -0.4C for eight consecutive weeks to be officially declared as a negative IOD event. The IOD ducked back into neutral territory thanks to recent warming in the western Indian Ocean. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly values may enhance rainfallacross central and southern Australia. Three of the five models are forecasting the negative IOD to develop in winter, with another one indicating development in early spring. Most of the models suggest that the negative IOD will continue through until mid spring. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and southwestern TAS. The weekly negative IOD values may be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from southwestern TAS and WA. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Warregah Island Rain Forecast


    Warregah Island 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    Aug 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    HIGH
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Warregah Island Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jul 26
    8.1 °C 22.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jul 27
    9.0 °C 22.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 28
    12.1 °C 24.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 29
    15.1 °C 22.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Jul 30
    7.0 °C 21.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Warregah Island minimum temp history (29.3988°S, 153.2216°E, 0m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 24.1° 28/07/2021 Coldest this month 6.7° 07/07/2021
    Hottest on record 29.6 29/07/1958 Coldest on record 2.8 21/07/1944
    Hottest this year 31.8° 09/03/2021 Coldest this year 6.7° 07/07/2021
    Long term average 19.1° Long term average 9.6°
    Average this month 20.3° Average this month 10.8°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 20.6° 2016 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 7.4° 1970
    Warregah Island rainfall history (29.3988°S, 153.2216°E, 0m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 30.4mm 01/07/2021 Total This Month 86.4mm
    14.0 days
    Long Term Average 100.3mm 9.7 days Wettest July on record 707.5mm 1950
    Driest on record 0.0mm 1878
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Warregah Island Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 1039.3mm 90.7 day(s)
    Total For 2021 1329.4mm 109.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 1303.8mm 98.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 114.6mm Mar22
    Lowest Temperature 6.7°C Jul 7
    Highest Temperature 31.8°C Mar 9
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Warregah Island Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.4 26.6 25.8 24.0 21.6 19.6 19.1 20.1 21.8 23.1 24.4 25.7 23.2
    Mean Min (°C) 20.2 20.4 19.2 16.4 13.2 10.9 9.6 10.3 12.9 15.4 17.4 19.1 15.4
    Mean Rain (mm) 140.2 159.4 188.0 160.3 154.4 136.7 100.3 76.7 58.4 78.5 92.5 116.4 1459.1
    Mean Rain Days 12.6 13.9 16.2 13.9 13.1 11.3 9.7 8.7 8.9 10.1 10.5 11.6 140.2