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Forecast

Warners Bay (32.9754°S, 151.6447°E, 11m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Hazy 16° 31°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:13am EDT 5:40am EDT 7:37pm EDT 8:05pm EDT
    NOW
    22.4° Feels Like: 20.7°
    Relative Humidity: 87%
    Dew: 20.1°
    Wind: E 28km/h
    Gust: 33km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Warners Bay
    Now
    26.0°c
    Feels Like:
    25.5°
    Wind:
    E 20km/h
    Gusts:
    28km/h
    Humidity:
    67%
    Hazy
     
    16°
    Min
    31°
    Max
    Today in Warners Bay
    Hot. Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm about the Upper Hunter during this afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming N/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 32 to 39.
    Tomorrow
    Hazy
    20°
    Min
    32°
    Max
    Hot. Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers about the Upper Hunter, slight chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h shifting E/SE 15 to 25 km/h during the morning and early afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 24 with daytime temperatures reaching 32 to 39.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Hot. Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm about the Upper Hunter during this afternoon and early evening. Light winds becoming N/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 32 to 39.

    Forecast for Warners Bay (32.9754°S, 151.6447°E, 11m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Hazy Hazy Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 16° 20° 18° 17° 17° 18° 16°
    Maximum 31° 32° 30° 23° 30° 33° 24°
    Chance of rain 5% 40% 70% 70% 60% 90% 60%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 8
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    Wind direction ENE ENE NNW SSE SW SE S S N ENE NNW N SSW SSE
    Relative humidity 79% 70% 50% 81% 82% 84% 87% 90% 80% 71% 60% 51% 64% 66%
    Dew point 19°C 25°C 19°C 21°C 22°C 24°C 17°C 19°C 19°C 24°C 16°C 20°C 12°C 17°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Warners Bay Rain Forecast


    Warners Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 November to 30 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 2 December to 6 December, and 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 November to 2 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 21 December to 25 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Warners Bay Rain Forecast


    Warners Bay 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    3
    4
    5
    6
    5
    7
    6
    8
    7
    5
    6
    2
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Warners Bay Rain Forecast


    Warners Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    LOW
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 November to 30 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 2 December to 6 December, and 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 November to 2 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 21 December to 25 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Warners Bay Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Nov 17
    16.4 °C 24.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Nov 18
    15.0 °C 26.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 19
    17.2 °C 33.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 20
    18.8 °C 25 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 21
    17 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Warners Bay minimum temp history (32.9754°S, 151.6447°E, 11m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 37.4° 08/11/2019 Coldest this month 9.2° 06/11/2019
    Hottest on record 42.0 20/11/2009 Coldest on record 4.7 05/11/2013
    Hottest this year 40.6° 05/01/2019 Coldest this year 2.2° 14/08/2019
    Long term average 26.0° Long term average 15.9°
    Average this month 28.5° Average this month 14.6°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.8° 2009 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 14.0° 2013
    Warners Bay rainfall history (32.9754°S, 151.6447°E, 11m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 16.2mm 04/11/2019 Total This Month 16.2mm
    1.0 days
    Long Term Average 113.5mm 11.8 days Wettest November on record 279.5mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Warners Bay Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 1059.6mm 119.0 day(s)
    Total For 2019 623.3mm 67.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 803.9mm 95.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 72.5mm Aug31
    Lowest Temperature 2.2°C Aug14
    Highest Temperature 40.6°C Jan 5
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Warners Bay Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.2 28.3 26.7 23.9 21.1 18.4 17.8 19.7 22.6 24.8 26.0 27.8 23.9
    Mean Min (°C) 19.4 19.4 17.4 13.9 10.5 8.7 7.5 8.0 10.8 13.3 15.9 17.8 13.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 89.6 137.0 123.2 135.5 90.3 123.7 60.1 59.2 69.1 58.4 113.5 68.6 1128.7
    Mean Rain Days 10.6 12.2 11.8 11.3 11.2 12.6 11.2 9.2 8.3 8.8 11.8 10.4 117.7