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Forecast

Warburn (34.1748°S, 145.9196°E, 116m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 10° 22°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 60%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:44am EST 7:10am EST 5:34pm EST 6:01pm EST
    NOW
    15.7° Feels Like: 10.6°
    Relative Humidity: 49%
    Dew: 5.0°
    Wind: N 20km/h
    Gust: 26km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1010.2hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Warburn
    Now
    13.5°c
    Feels Like:
    7.8°
    Wind:
    N 22km/h
    Gusts:
    32km/h
    Humidity:
    52%
    Mostly sunny
     
    10°
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Today in Warburn
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers near the Victorian border, slight chance elsewhere. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 18 and 23.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Cloudy. High chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds W/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to around 9 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers near the Victorian border, slight chance elsewhere. Winds N 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 18 and 23.

    Forecast for Warburn (34.1748°S, 145.9196°E, 116m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Mostly sunny Showers Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 10°
    Maximum 22° 15° 17° 14° 14° 15° 15°
    Chance of rain 60% 30% 80% 30% 30% 10% 30%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Moderate Slight Slight Slight Slight
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 19
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N NNW WSW SW ENE NE WNW W W W W W W WSW
    Relative humidity 49% 48% 93% 60% 83% 47% 89% 62% 90% 66% 96% 66% 95% 61%
    Dew point 5°C 10°C 10°C 7°C 6°C 5°C 7°C 6°C 6°C 7°C 8°C 8°C 8°C 7°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Warburn Rain Forecast


    Warburn 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    HIGH
    Aug 1
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    HIGH
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    HIGH
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Warburn Rain Forecast


    Warburn 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2021
    2022
    7
    6
    8
    8
    9
    6
    6
    8
    7
    4
    5
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 13

    ENSO status: Neutral, however two models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again from September. IOD status: Neutral, although it was negative for six weeks between mid-May and late-June SAM status: Negative. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, prompting the US Climate Prediction Centre to issue a La Niña Watch this week. Two models forecast temperatures reaching the La Niña threshold during September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although we saw six consecutive weeks below the negative IOD threshold between mid-May and late-June. The IOD index needs to stay below -0.4C for eight consecutive weeks to be officially declared as a negative IOD event. The IOD ducked back into neutral territory thanks to recent warming in the western Indian Ocean. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly values may enhance rainfallacross central and southern Australia. Three of the five models are forecasting the negative IOD to develop in winter, with another one indicating development in early spring. Most of the models suggest that the negative IOD will continue through until mid spring. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and southwestern TAS. The weekly negative IOD values may be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from southwestern TAS and WA. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Warburn Rain Forecast


    Warburn 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    HIGH
    Aug 1
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    HIGH
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    HIGH
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Warburn Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Tuesday
    Jul 27
    4.9 °C 18.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 28
    11.4 °C 17.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 29
    1.5 °C 15.4 °C
    0.2 mm
    Friday
    Jul 30
    0.8 °C 14.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Jul 31
    11.2 °C 15.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Warburn minimum temp history (34.1748°S, 145.9196°E, 116m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 19.3° 15/07/2021 Coldest this month -1.5° 22/07/2021
    Hottest on record 23.0 27/07/2002 Coldest on record -5.9 17/07/1977
    Hottest this year 41.7° 24/01/2021 Coldest this year -1.8° 16/05/2021
    Long term average 14.8° Long term average 3.3°
    Average this month 14.3° Average this month 4.1°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 17.1° 2002 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 0.9° 1977
    Warburn rainfall history (34.1748°S, 145.9196°E, 116m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 4.4mm 21/07/2021 Total This Month 25.2mm
    19.0 days
    Long Term Average 33.2mm 10.8 days Wettest July on record 88.4mm 1981
    Driest on record 1.1mm 1979
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Warburn Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 229.6mm 43.6 day(s)
    Total For 2021 278.8mm 61.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 303.8mm 69.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 43.2mm Mar23
    Lowest Temperature -1.8°C May16
    Highest Temperature 41.7°C Jan24
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Warburn Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 33.8 32.4 29.1 24.1 19.3 15.4 14.8 16.7 20.2 24.4 28.6 31.2 24.2
    Mean Min (°C) 18.4 17.7 14.6 10.4 6.8 4.3 3.3 3.8 5.9 9.5 13.4 16.0 10.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 31.2 29.6 35.9 28.9 34.3 36.5 33.2 33.6 33.2 39.1 34.0 32.5 396.1
    Mean Rain Days 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.7 6.8 8.7 10.8 9.0 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.9 75.9