Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Marine Wind Warning Summary for New South Wales
Issued at 04:05 PM EDT on Tuesday 19 March 2024
for the period until midnight EDT Wednesday 20 March 2024
Wind Warnings for Tuesday 19 March
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Hunter Coast, Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast, Batemans Coast and Eden Coast
Wind Warnings for Wednesday 20 March
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast, Batemans Coast and Eden Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Sydney Enclosed Waters, Macquarie Coast and Hunter Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:10 am EDT Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Varroville (34.0103°S, 150.823°E, 50m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW18° 27° heavy showers Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:35am EDT 7:00am EDT 7:07pm EDT 7:32pm EDT NOW25.6° Feels Like: 27.6° Relative Humidity: 72% Dew: 20.2° Wind: NE 9km/h Gust: 15km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
VarrovilleNow24.8°cFeels Like:25.1°Wind:NE 17km/hGusts:22km/hHumidity:73%18°Min27°MaxToday in VarrovilleCloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h shifting SW 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then tending S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon. Wind reaching 40 to 55 km/h near the coast from late afternoon.Tomorrow18°Min27°MaxCloudy. Winds S 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h before dawn then turning SE 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h shifting SW 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then tending S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon. Wind reaching 40 to 55 km/h near the coast from late afternoon.
Forecast for Varroville (34.0103°S, 150.823°E, 50m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary Minimum 18° 12° 12° 12° 14° 13° 14° Maximum 27° 23° 25° 26° 28° 28° 28° Chance of rain 80% 10% 30% 50% 20% 30% 90% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Low Moderate Moderate High High High High Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 5
(km/h)15
(km/h)10
(km/h)12
(km/h)5
(km/h)8
(km/h)5
(km/h)10
(km/h)5
(km/h)6
(km/h)5
(km/h)8
(km/h)7
(km/h)11
(km/h)Wind direction NNW SSW SSW SE WSW NE SW ESE WSW WSW W N SW SE Relative humidity 96% 74% 72% 52% 81% 56% 85% 61% 88% 46% 78% 41% 75% 57% Dew point 21°C 20°C 12°C 11°C 14°C 14°C 15°C 17°C 16°C 14°C 14°C 13°C 15°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Varroville Rain Forecast
Varroville 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Varroville Rain Forecast
Varroville 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025586688755648105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Varroville Rain Forecast
Varroville 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Varroville Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1516.2 °C 25.1 °C 2.6 mmSaturday
Mar 1613.4 °C 25.5 °C 0.4 mmSunday
Mar 1716.8 °C 21.7 °C 17.6 mmMonday
Mar 1815.5 °C 26.8 °C 0.2 mmTuesday
Mar 1917.2 °C 30.0 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Varroville minimum temp history (34.0103°S, 150.823°E, 50m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 35.4° 12/03/2024 Coldest this month 13.1° 05/03/2024 Hottest on record 35.6 09/03/2016 Coldest on record 6.0 30/03/2008 Hottest this year 39.3° 29/02/2024 Coldest this year 11.8° 25/02/2024 Long term average 26.9° Long term average 15.2° Average this month 29.2° Average this month 16.2° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.2° 2016 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 13.4° 2008 Varroville rainfall history (34.0103°S, 150.823°E, 50m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 17.6mm 17/03/2024 Total This Month 29.0mm
6.0 daysLong Term Average 113.4mm 13.5 days Wettest March on record 225.6mm 2017 Driest on record 26.8mm 2018 -
Year to Date
Varroville Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 310.4mm 37.9 day(s) Total For 2024 183.6mm 38.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 226.2mm 35.0 day(s) Wettest Day 52.6mm Feb 6 Lowest Temperature 11.8°C Feb25 Highest Temperature 39.3°C Feb29 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Varroville Climatology
Varroville Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.1 28.5 26.9 24.1 21.1 17.8 17.8 19.4 22.5 25.0 26.7 28.3 24.0 Mean Min (°C) 17.3 16.8 15.2 11.4 7.2 5.7 4.0 4.7 7.4 10.5 13.4 15.2 10.7 Mean Rain (mm) 88.6 108.4 113.4 60.8 39.3 79.2 42.6 40.9 35.7 56.0 78.9 60.8 799.1 Mean Rain Days 12.2 12.2 13.5 10.2 7.8 12.0 10.3 7.7 8.5 9.8 11.1 11.9 126.3