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Forecast

Valentine (33.0089°S, 151.6352°E, 16m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Increasing sunshine 20° 25°
    increasing sunshine
    Chance of rain: 20%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:32am EDT 6:56am EDT 7:06pm EDT 7:30pm EDT
    NOW
    26.3° Feels Like: 27.4°
    Relative Humidity: 71%
    Dew: 20.6°
    Wind: E 15km/h
    Gust: 20km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1015.4hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Valentine
    Now
    24.4°c
    Feels Like:
    26.2°
    Wind:
    E 13km/h
    Gusts:
    15km/h
    Humidity:
    83%
    Increasing sunshine
     
    20°
    Min
    25°
    Max
    Today in Valentine
    Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog about the Upper Hunter. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures around 30.
    Tomorrow
    Wind and rain increasing
    21°
    Min
    25°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Showers tending to rain in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h shifting S/SE 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 31.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog about the Upper Hunter. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures around 30.

    Forecast for Valentine (33.0089°S, 151.6352°E, 16m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Increasing sunshine Wind and rain increasing Mostly cloudy Clearing shower Mostly sunny Clearing shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 20° 21° 19° 19° 18° 18° 18°
    Maximum 25° 25° 20° 22° 22° 22° 24°
    Chance of rain 20% 90% 50% 40% 40% 40% 30%
    Likely amount < 1mm 10-20mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index High Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate High
    Fire Danger Rating No Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 9
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N ENE NNE W S SSE ENE E SW SSE WSW SE WNW E
    Relative humidity 88% 75% 83% 84% 60% 57% 71% 61% 80% 68% 85% 70% 73% 63%
    Dew point 19°C 20°C 20°C 20°C 12°C 12°C 14°C 14°C 16°C 16°C 17°C 17°C 16°C 17°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Valentine Rain Forecast


    Valentine 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Valentine Rain Forecast


    Valentine 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    2024
    2025
    6
    7
    6
    6
    8
    8
    6
    4
    8
    6
    4
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Mar 5

    ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Long range rainfall forecast

    Valentine Rain Forecast


    Valentine 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  13. Past 5 Days

    Valentine Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Mar 15
    17.5 °C 26.3 °C
    3.6 mm
    Saturday
    Mar 16
    12.6 °C 24.9 °C
    0.2 mm
    Sunday
    Mar 17
    17.3 °C 23.9 °C
    3.2 mm
    Monday
    Mar 18
    17.1 °C 25.7 °C
    4.8 mm
    Tuesday
    Mar 19
    17.9 °C 28.5 °C
    1.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Valentine minimum temp history (33.0089°S, 151.6352°E, 16m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 34.4° 14/03/2024 Coldest this month 12.3° 05/03/2024
    Hottest on record Coldest on record
    Hottest this year 40.9° 26/01/2024 Coldest this year 12.3° 05/03/2024
    Long term average 26.7° Long term average 16.0°
    Average this month 28.2° Average this month 16.3°
    Hottest - On Record Avg. max. temp. - - Coldest - on record Avg. min. temp. - -
    Valentine rainfall history (33.0089°S, 151.6352°E, 16m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 4.8mm 18/03/2024 Total This Month 18.6mm
    8.0 days
    Long Term Average 166.4mm 15.9 days Wettest - on record - -
    Driest on record 50.6mm 2009
  15. Year to Date

    Valentine Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Mar 414.4mm 41.6 day(s)
    Total For 2024 168.2mm 30.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2023 243.8mm 29.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 25.6mm Feb16
    Lowest Temperature 12.3°C Mar 5
    Highest Temperature 40.9°C Jan26
  16. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Valentine Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.7 28.0 26.7 24.3 21.3 18.5 18.6 19.9 22.7 24.3 25.9 27.4 23.8
    Mean Min (°C) 17.9 17.4 16.0 12.0 7.8 6.6 5.0 5.1 8.0 11.0 14.0 16.0 11.4
    Mean Rain (mm) 109.6 138.4 166.4 88.9 47.5 94.5 71.7 48.7 59.7 89.8 103.6 88.2 1107.9
    Mean Rain Days 12.2 13.5 15.9 14.3 12.9 15.1 11.9 8.6 10.6 13.1 12.3 12.8 152.9