Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Marine Wind Warning Summary for New South Wales
Issued at 04:05 PM EDT on Tuesday 19 March 2024
for the period until midnight EDT Wednesday 20 March 2024
Wind Warnings for Tuesday 19 March
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Hunter Coast, Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast, Batemans Coast and Eden Coast
Wind Warnings for Wednesday 20 March
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast, Batemans Coast and Eden Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Sydney Enclosed Waters, Macquarie Coast and Hunter Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:10 am EDT Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Valentine (33.0089°S, 151.6352°E, 16m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY20° 25° increasing sunshine Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:32am EDT 6:56am EDT 7:06pm EDT 7:30pm EDT NOW26.3° Feels Like: 27.4° Relative Humidity: 71% Dew: 20.6° Wind: E 15km/h Gust: 20km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1015.4hPa -
Today Weather
ValentineNow24.4°cFeels Like:26.2°Wind:E 13km/hGusts:15km/hHumidity:83%20°Min25°MaxToday in ValentinePartly cloudy. The chance of morning fog about the Upper Hunter. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures around 30.Tomorrow21°Min25°MaxPartly cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Showers tending to rain in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h shifting S/SE 20 to 30 km/h in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 31. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog about the Upper Hunter. Slight chance of a shower. Light winds becoming E/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures around 30.
Forecast for Valentine (33.0089°S, 151.6352°E, 16m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 20° 21° 19° 19° 18° 18° 18° Maximum 25° 25° 20° 22° 22° 22° 24° Chance of rain 20% 90% 50% 40% 40% 40% 30% Likely amount < 1mm 10-20mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index High Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate High Fire Danger Rating No Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 9
(km/h)19
(km/h)13
(km/h)12
(km/h)25
(km/h)21
(km/h)10
(km/h)14
(km/h)6
(km/h)13
(km/h)12
(km/h)16
(km/h)7
(km/h)10
(km/h)Wind direction N ENE NNE W S SSE ENE E SW SSE WSW SE WNW E Relative humidity 88% 75% 83% 84% 60% 57% 71% 61% 80% 68% 85% 70% 73% 63% Dew point 19°C 20°C 20°C 20°C 12°C 12°C 14°C 14°C 16°C 16°C 17°C 17°C 16°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Valentine Rain Forecast
Valentine 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Valentine Rain Forecast
Valentine 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025676688648647105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Valentine Rain Forecast
Valentine 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Valentine Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 1517.5 °C 26.3 °C 3.6 mmSaturday
Mar 1612.6 °C 24.9 °C 0.2 mmSunday
Mar 1717.3 °C 23.9 °C 3.2 mmMonday
Mar 1817.1 °C 25.7 °C 4.8 mmTuesday
Mar 1917.9 °C 28.5 °C 1.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Valentine minimum temp history (33.0089°S, 151.6352°E, 16m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.4° 14/03/2024 Coldest this month 12.3° 05/03/2024 Hottest on record Coldest on record Hottest this year 40.9° 26/01/2024 Coldest this year 12.3° 05/03/2024 Long term average 26.7° Long term average 16.0° Average this month 28.2° Average this month 16.3° Hottest - On Record Avg. max. temp. - - Coldest - on record Avg. min. temp. - - Valentine rainfall history (33.0089°S, 151.6352°E, 16m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 4.8mm 18/03/2024 Total This Month 18.6mm
8.0 daysLong Term Average 166.4mm 15.9 days Wettest - on record - - Driest on record 50.6mm 2009 -
Year to Date
Valentine Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 414.4mm 41.6 day(s) Total For 2024 168.2mm 30.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 243.8mm 29.0 day(s) Wettest Day 25.6mm Feb16 Lowest Temperature 12.3°C Mar 5 Highest Temperature 40.9°C Jan26 -
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Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
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- Cairns Airport
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- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
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- Gladstone
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Valentine Climatology
Valentine Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 28.7 28.0 26.7 24.3 21.3 18.5 18.6 19.9 22.7 24.3 25.9 27.4 23.8 Mean Min (°C) 17.9 17.4 16.0 12.0 7.8 6.6 5.0 5.1 8.0 11.0 14.0 16.0 11.4 Mean Rain (mm) 109.6 138.4 166.4 88.9 47.5 94.5 71.7 48.7 59.7 89.8 103.6 88.2 1107.9 Mean Rain Days 12.2 13.5 15.9 14.3 12.9 15.1 11.9 8.6 10.6 13.1 12.3 12.8 152.9