Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Heavy Rainfall, Damaging Winds And Large Hailstones
for parts of Northern Rivers, North West Slopes and Plains and Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 11:28 pm Wednesday, 26 February 2020.
HEAVY RAINFALL, DAMAGING WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES for the following areas:
Northern Rivers, North West Slopes and Plains and Northern Tablelands
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Moree, Byron Bay, Ballina, Casino and Kyogle.
Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in the Mid North Coast district and the warning for this district is CANCELLED.
95 km/h wind gust was recorded at Williamtown Airport at 4:07pm.
Keeva recorded 28mm of rainfall in 30 min.
Newcastle (Lookout Road Reservoir) recorded 64.6mm of rainfall in 60min to 4pm.
Macquarie College recorded 74mm of rainfall in 60 min to 4pm (48mm of which fell in 30min)
Warning for the following areas:
Mid North Coast
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* Trees that have been damaged by fire are likely to be more unstable and more likely to fall.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
* If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
* Be aware that run-off from rainfall in fire affected areas may behave differently and be more rapid. It may also contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* After bushfires, heavy rain and the loss of foliage can make the ground soft and heavy, leading to a greater chance of landslides.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 2:30 am Thursday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Tucki Tucki (28.9088°S, 153.3277°E, 18m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW
20° 29° possible shower Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:13am EDT 6:37am EDT 7:22pm EDT 7:46pm EDT NOW21.4° Feels Like: 22.2° Relative Humidity: 92% Dew: 20.0° Wind: N 15km/h Gust: 20km/h Rainfall since 9am: 12.8mm Pressure: 1009.2hPa -
Today Weather
Tucki TuckiNow21.0°cFeels Like:21.8°Wind:N 17km/hGusts:20km/hHumidity:98%
20°Min29°MaxToday in Tucki TuckiPartly cloudy. High chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s with daytime temperatures reaching around 30.Tomorrow
20°Min29°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming E/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 20 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming S/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s with daytime temperatures reaching around 30.
Forecast for Tucki Tucki (28.9088°S, 153.3277°E, 18m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary 
Minimum 20° 19° 20° 18° 18° 19° 20° Maximum 29° 29° 27° 28° 30° 27° 26° Chance of rain 80% 60% 60% 30% 60% 80% 90% Likely amount 5-10mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 5
(km/h)15
(km/h)7
(km/h)16
(km/h)13
(km/h)21
(km/h)10
(km/h)15
(km/h)5
(km/h)13
(km/h)8
(km/h)18
(km/h)9
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction WSW SSE SW SE SSW S SW S W SSE SSW SSE S SSE Relative humidity 82% 79% 87% 75% 88% 69% 82% 59% 79% 52% 84% 66% 83% 66% Dew point 23°C 23°C 21°C 24°C 20°C 21°C 18°C 20°C 18°C 19°C 20°C 20°C 19°C 19°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Tucki Tucki Rain Forecast
Tucki Tucki 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
MEDIUMMar 1
HIGH2
HIGH3
HIGH4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
LOW9
MEDIUM10
LOW11
LOW12
HIGH13
HIGH14
LOW15
LOW16
MEDIUM17
HIGH18
HIGH19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Feb26Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 March to 9 March, 11 March to 15 March, and 28 March to 1 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 March to 10 March, and 14 March to 18 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 March to 6 March, 6 March to 10 March, and 24 March to 28 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Tucki Tucki Rain Forecast
Tucki Tucki 12-month Rainfall ForecastFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan202020211067767667757105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Feb 12
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout January with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 as per December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 1.3 in January. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, cooling even further by mid 2020. Six out of eight international models continue to maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of the year, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, which is what you will expect for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values until the austral winter, with indications we could see another positive event late winter/spring. However, the skill of the models is low at this time of the year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours average-to-below average rainfall for parts of inland NSW and Qld for the end of summer and autumn. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) had its latest onset on record in early February at Darwin (by its technical definition) with the current prognosis suggesting another below average wet season for northern Australia. The northern half of the country however, could see a wet end to the wet season compared to the season thus far. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Tucki Tucki Rain Forecast
Tucki Tucki 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
MEDIUMMar 1
HIGH2
HIGH3
HIGH4
MEDIUM5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
LOW9
MEDIUM10
LOW11
LOW12
HIGH13
HIGH14
LOW15
LOW16
MEDIUM17
HIGH18
HIGH19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
MEDIUM23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Feb26Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 March to 9 March, 11 March to 15 March, and 28 March to 1 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 March to 10 March, and 14 March to 18 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 March to 6 March, 6 March to 10 March, and 24 March to 28 March.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Tucki Tucki Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Feb 2220.0 °C 26.5 °C 4.0 mmSunday
Feb 2318.2 °C 25.3 °C 7.2 mmMonday
Feb 2419.6 °C 25.2 °C 6.8 mmTuesday
Feb 2519.8 °C 27.0 °C 23.8 mmWednesday
Feb 2619.9 °C 32 °C 9.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Tucki Tucki minimum temp history (28.9088°S, 153.3277°E, 18m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 37.1° 03/02/2020 Coldest this month 17.8° 01/02/2020 Hottest on record 42.8 12/02/2017 Coldest on record 13.0 08/02/2014 Hottest this year 38.4° 05/01/2020 Coldest this year 13.8° 05/01/2020 Long term average 29.5° Long term average 18.6° Average this month 28.8° Average this month 20.7° Hottest February On Record Avg. max. temp. 31.8° 2017 Coldest February on record Avg. min. temp. 17.1° 2007 Tucki Tucki rainfall history (28.9088°S, 153.3277°E, 18m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 112.8mm 07/02/2020 Total This Month 383.4mm
19.0 daysLong Term Average 139.2mm 14.3 days Wettest February on record 306.4mm 2013 Driest on record 20.2mm 2014 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Tucki Tucki Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Feb 299.2mm 29.3 day(s) Total For 2020 628.8mm 27.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2019 59.6mm 15.0 day(s) Wettest Day 128.6mm Jan18 Lowest Temperature 13.8°C Jan 5 Highest Temperature 38.4°C Jan 5 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Tucki Tucki Climatology
Tucki Tucki Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 30.0 29.5 28.1 25.9 23.4 20.7 20.7 22.5 25.6 27.3 28.7 29.4 26.0 Mean Min (°C) 18.8 18.6 17.1 14.1 9.8 8.1 6.2 6.7 9.8 12.5 15.5 17.3 12.9 Mean Rain (mm) 160.0 139.2 182.3 123.5 76.5 99.2 37.0 69.5 41.0 75.7 108.1 121.9 1238.1 Mean Rain Days 15.0 14.3 17.9 17.1 15.5 14.9 11.9 10.2 9.2 10.8 12.3 13.8 154.6
