Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Illawarra, Southern Tablelands, Snowy Mountains and parts of South Coast, Central Tablelands, South West Slopes and Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:20 pm Tuesday, 20 August 2019.
VIGOROUS WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST NSW
Weather Situation: Vigorous northwest to southwesterly winds are expected across southeastern New South Wales as a cold front clips the southeast on Wednesday morning, followed by a second front on Thursday morning. Winds will ease in the wake of these fronts later Thursday.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h, with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h, are possible for the Southern Tablelands (including parts of the Australian Capital Territory), Snowy Mountains, Illawarra, higher parts of the South Coast and southeastern parts of the Central Tablelands forecast districts during Wednesday morning and again during Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
For Alpine areas above 1900 metres: DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 75 to 85 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 110 km/h are possible for Alpine areas above 1900 metres on Tuesday evening and again on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.
Winds are expected to ease during Thursday after the passage of the second front.
BLIZZARD conditions are likely at times from Tuesday evening through to Thursday morning. The NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service recommends that back country travel be postponed until conditions improve.
Locations which may be affected include Thredbo Top, Wollongong, Nowra, Bowral, Goulburn, Cooma and Yass.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Tuesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Tallwood (33.5009°S, 149.1235°E, 917m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW
2° 10° possible shower Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:11am EST 6:36am EST 5:38pm EST 6:03pm EST NOW4.1° Feels Like: -3.1° Relative Humidity: 83% Dew: 1.5° Wind: WSW 28km/h Gust: WSW 28km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1024.7hPa -
Today Weather
TallwoodNow6.4°cFeels Like:2.9°Wind:SW 9km/hGusts:15km/hHumidity:74%
2°Min10°MaxToday in TallwoodCloudy. Medium chance of showers in the south. Winds W 35 to 55 km/h decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the late afternoon. Winds possibly reaching up to 60 km/h in the SE in the morning and in the E during the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 16.Tomorrow
2°Min10°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the south in the morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W/SW 30 to 50 km/h tending S/SW 15 to 20 km/h during the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 3 and 8 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 17. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the south. Winds W 35 to 55 km/h decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the late afternoon. Winds possibly reaching up to 60 km/h in the SE in the morning and in the E during the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 1 and 6 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 16.
Forecast for Tallwood (33.5009°S, 149.1235°E, 917m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary 
Minimum 2° 3° -3° -2° 0° 1° 1° Maximum 10° 11° 14° 15° 15° 14° 14° Chance of rain 70% 60% 5% 5% 20% 20% 40% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - - Frost risk Moderate Moderate Severe Severe High High High 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 31
(km/h)36
(km/h)35
(km/h)37
(km/h)8
(km/h)15
(km/h)15
(km/h)23
(km/h)10
(km/h)20
(km/h)13
(km/h)18
(km/h)11
(km/h)16
(km/h)Wind direction WSW WSW WSW SW E WNW NW WNW WNW W W W SSE WSW Relative humidity 98% 78% 96% 56% 65% 38% 59% 36% 61% 37% 78% 48% 83% 52% Dew point 6°C 7°C 4°C 3°C -1°C 0°C -0°C 0°C 1°C 0°C 5°C 3°C 6°C 4°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Tallwood Rain Forecast
Tallwood 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
24
25
26
LOW27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
MEDIUM31
HIGHSep 1
2
LOW3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
LOW13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug20Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 August to 29 August, 6 September to 10 September, and 18 September to 22 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 August to 29 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 11 September to 15 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 August to 29 August, 31 August to 4 September, and 18 September to 22 September.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Tallwood Rain Forecast
Tallwood 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20192020444555765475105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SST's) continued a cooling trend over the central Pacific during July. The Nino3.4 index lingered at about 0.5 through the month of July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 in July, which is now in neutral territory. Current consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will remain across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Although, six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the remainder of 2019, none of these are reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. Moreover, the IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 50% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive. Six out of six international models maintain a positive event until mid-spring. The climate outlook for the four weeks left in winter and spring, favours average-to-below average rainfall across the southern half of Australia, in particular over the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during the end of winter and the first half of spring due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. SST's along the eastern seaboard remain significantly warmer than average (especially off NSW) maintaining a high risk of extreme weather events such as East Coast Lows (ECLs). These can bring intense periods of rainfall east of the Great Dividing Range, leading to flash flooding.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Tallwood Rain Forecast
Tallwood 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
24
25
26
LOW27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
MEDIUM31
HIGHSep 1
2
LOW3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
LOW13
LOW14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug20Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 August to 29 August, 6 September to 10 September, and 18 September to 22 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 August to 29 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 11 September to 15 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 August to 29 August, 31 August to 4 September, and 18 September to 22 September.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Tallwood Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Aug 16-2.1 °C 15.8 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Aug 170.3 °C 15.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Aug 181.3 °C 18.4 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Aug 190.5 °C 6.2 °C 0.2 mmTuesday
Aug 200.4 °C 8 °C 0.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Tallwood minimum temp history (33.5009°S, 149.1235°E, 917m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 18.4° 18/08/2019 Coldest this month -5.2° 14/08/2019 Hottest on record 19.5 23/08/2009 Coldest on record -6.2 03/08/1999 Hottest this year 37.5° 16/01/2019 Coldest this year -5.2° 20/06/2019 Long term average 11.2° Long term average 0.9° Average this month 11.1° Average this month -1.1° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 13.3° 2002 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. -0.9° 2002 Tallwood rainfall history (33.5009°S, 149.1235°E, 917m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 15.4mm 11/08/2019 Total This Month 30.4mm
9.0 daysLong Term Average 86.6mm 15.8 days Wettest August on record 240.8mm 2002 -
Popup - Radar
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Year to Date
Tallwood Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 564.0mm 97.8 day(s) Total For 2019 358.0mm 84.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 263.2mm 75.0 day(s) Wettest Day 39.6mm Feb 8 Lowest Temperature -5.2°C Jun20 Highest Temperature 37.5°C Jan16 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Tallwood Climatology
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.1 26.0 22.9 18.7 14.1 10.8 9.7 11.2 14.8 18.1 21.8 24.7 18.3 Mean Min (°C) 12.7 12.6 9.8 5.6 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.9 3.3 5.5 8.4 10.4 6.1 Mean Rain (mm) 62.2 77.5 71.0 44.9 50.5 87.9 83.4 86.6 83.9 75.6 83.7 91.5 897.2 Mean Rain Days 8.0 8.0 8.4 7.8 12.5 18.2 19.1 15.8 11.7 9.4 10.0 9.0 132.4
