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Forecast

Swan Vale (29.7698°S, 151.4847°E, 835m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Hazy 30°
    Chance of rain: 20%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:24am EDT 5:50am EDT 7:27pm EDT 7:53pm EDT
    NOW
    27.1° Feels Like: 20.7°
    Relative Humidity: 13%
    Dew: -3.7°
    Wind: NW 20km/h
    Gust: 24km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1017.5hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Swan Vale
    Now
    30.6°c
    Feels Like:
    25.0°
    Wind:
    WNW 17km/h
    Gusts:
    26km/h
    Humidity:
    12%
    Hazy
     
    Min
    30°
    Max
    Today in Swan Vale
    Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the east during the afternoon and early evening. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h tending NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 36.
    Tomorrow
    Hazy
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze, most likely in the morning. Slight chance of a shower and the chance of a thunderstorm on and east of the ranges in the afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending SE/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 34.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the east during the afternoon and early evening. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h tending NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 36.

    Forecast for Swan Vale (29.7698°S, 151.4847°E, 835m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Hazy Hazy Hazy Hazy Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 10° 11° 12°
    Maximum 30° 27° 28° 31° 33° 33° 33°
    Chance of rain 20% 30% 20% 5% 10% 30% 80%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 14
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    35
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW WNW NW W E NW NW W W SE NNE NNW NW N
    Relative humidity 20% 10% 47% 14% 52% 18% 47% 16% 27% 10% 42% 17% 33% 21%
    Dew point -1°C -4°C 9°C -3°C 8°C 2°C 9°C 2°C 4°C -2°C 9°C 5°C 7°C 8°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Swan Vale Rain Forecast


    Swan Vale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    HIGH
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    HIGH
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 November to 25 November, 28 November to 2 December, and 15 December to 19 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 December to 14 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 November to 26 November, 29 November to 3 December, and 20 December to 24 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Swan Vale Rain Forecast


    Swan Vale 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    2
    3
    6
    6
    6
    7
    6
    8
    6
    5
    6
    5
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Swan Vale Rain Forecast


    Swan Vale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    HIGH
    23
    LOW
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    HIGH
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 November to 25 November, 28 November to 2 December, and 15 December to 19 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 December to 14 December, and 14 December to 18 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 November to 26 November, 29 November to 3 December, and 20 December to 24 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Swan Vale Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Nov 11
    4.5 °C 25.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 12
    5.0 °C 25.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 13
    13.5 °C 25.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 14
    2.0 °C 25.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Nov 15
    5.5 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Swan Vale minimum temp history (29.7698°S, 151.4847°E, 835m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 28.5° 07/11/2019 Coldest this month 2.0° 14/11/2019
    Hottest on record 34.5 23/11/2014 Coldest on record 0.2 18/11/1983
    Hottest this year 36.5° 19/01/2019 Coldest this year -12.5° 12/08/2019
    Long term average 22.5° Long term average 9.9°
    Average this month 24.7° Average this month 7.7°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.3° 2014 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 7.7° 1971
    Swan Vale rainfall history (29.7698°S, 151.4847°E, 835m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 1.8mm 04/11/2019 Total This Month 3.4mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 90.3mm 10.0 days Wettest November on record 214.7mm 2014
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Swan Vale Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 735.8mm 100.1 day(s)
    Total For 2019 248.0mm 87.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 311.2mm 80.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 47.6mm Mar 9
    Lowest Temperature -12.5°C Aug12
    Highest Temperature 36.5°C Jan19
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Swan Vale Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 25.5 24.8 23.1 20.0 16.4 13.2 12.5 14.1 17.1 20.2 22.5 24.4 19.5
    Mean Min (°C) 13.5 13.4 11.5 8.0 4.6 1.9 0.7 1.3 4.1 7.1 9.9 12.1 7.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 106.4 91.5 71.0 41.2 48.0 52.9 55.4 49.0 54.9 75.2 90.3 109.2 845.3
    Mean Rain Days 11.2 10.5 9.1 7.3 8.4 9.6 9.5 8.0 7.5 9.0 10.0 11.4 110.3