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Forecast

Swan Bay (32.7024°S, 151.9655°E, 0m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Windy with showers 10° 17°
    windy with showers
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 10-20mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:27am EST 6:54am EST 4:54pm EST 5:21pm EST
    NOW
    14.1° Feels Like: 7.9°
    Relative Humidity: 60%
    Dew: 6.5°
    Wind: W 28km/h
    Gust: 39km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1011.6hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Swan Bay
    Now
    15.9°c
    Feels Like:
    10.3°
    Wind:
    SW 24km/h
    Gusts:
    41km/h
    Humidity:
    52%
    Windy with showers
     
    10°
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Today in Swan Bay
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers along the coastal fringe, medium chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm near the coast. Gusty winds along the coastal fringe during this afternoon and evening. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending S/SW in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures between 13 and 18.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    11°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers about the Lower Hunter, medium chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm from the late morning. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 13 and 17.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers along the coastal fringe, medium chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm near the coast. Gusty winds along the coastal fringe during this afternoon and evening. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending S/SW in the middle of the day. Daytime maximum temperatures between 13 and 18.

    Forecast for Swan Bay (32.7024°S, 151.9655°E, 0m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Windy with showers Showers Showers Possible shower Mostly sunny Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum 10° 11° 11° 10°
    Maximum 17° 19° 19° 19° 19° 18° 20°
    Chance of rain 90% 90% 50% 50% 20% 70% 70%
    Likely amount 10-20mm 10-20mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low Moderate - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 30
    (km/h)
    38
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W SW SSW SSW SW S W SSE NNW E NNW NNE NNW NNW
    Relative humidity 62% 75% 88% 70% 89% 67% 91% 69% 93% 66% 85% 65% 88% 60%
    Dew point 7°C 11°C 13°C 13°C 13°C 12°C 12°C 12°C 11°C 12°C 10°C 10°C 11°C 11°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Swan Bay Rain Forecast


    Swan Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    HIGH
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    Jul 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 June to 1 July, 2 July to 6 July, and 7 July to 11 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 July to 9 July, and 15 July to 19 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 June to 3 July, 7 July to 11 July, and 15 July to 19 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Swan Bay Rain Forecast


    Swan Bay 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    2021
    2022
    6
    6
    7
    7
    6
    8
    6
    8
    7
    6
    7
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral. IOD status: Neutral, although during the past three weeks it has been negative. SAM status: Positive. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, which is predicted to continue until at least October. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. although the last 3 weekly values have been negative.The negative value would need to continue for another 5 weeks for a negative IOD to be declared. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly value may enhance rainfall across central and southern Australia. A negative IOD is forecast during winter or early spring by 3 out of 5 climate models. However, the confidence in the IOD forecast at this time of the year is low, specifically because the models are showing a range of outcomes from mid winter onwards. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and much of TAS. The weekly negative IOD valuesmay be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from western TAS. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Swan Bay Rain Forecast


    Swan Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    LOW
    23
    LOW
    24
    HIGH
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    LOW
    Jul 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 June to 1 July, 2 July to 6 July, and 7 July to 11 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 July to 9 July, and 15 July to 19 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 June to 3 July, 7 July to 11 July, and 15 July to 19 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Swan Bay Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Tuesday
    Jun 15
    6.0 °C 18.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jun 16
    4.8 °C 20.1 °C
    -
    Thursday
    Jun 17
    8.8 °C 17.4 °C
    0.4 mm
    Friday
    Jun 18
    10.7 °C 19.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Jun 19
    11.4 °C 14.7 °C
    0.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Swan Bay minimum temp history (32.7024°S, 151.9655°E, 0m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 21.2° 02/06/2021 Coldest this month 3.7° 11/06/2021
    Hottest on record 26.6 05/06/1958 Coldest on record -1.8 30/06/2010
    Hottest this year 38.4° 26/01/2021 Coldest this year 3.7° 11/06/2021
    Long term average 17.7° Long term average 8.0°
    Average this month 17.4° Average this month 6.9°
    Hottest June On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.9° 1957 Coldest June on record Avg. min. temp. 5.6° 2004
    Swan Bay rainfall history (32.7024°S, 151.9655°E, 0m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 12.8mm 04/06/2021 Total This Month 24.0mm
    7.0 days
    Long Term Average 132.6mm 13.9 days Wettest June on record 414.2mm 2007
    Driest on record 14.6mm 2001
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Swan Bay Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jun 681.4mm 76.5 day(s)
    Total For 2021 988.6mm 90.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 574.6mm 86.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 96.4mm Mar19
    Lowest Temperature 3.7°C Jun11
    Highest Temperature 38.4°C Jan26
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Swan Bay Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.3 27.7 26.3 23.7 20.4 17.7 17.2 18.8 21.5 23.8 25.6 27.4 23.2
    Mean Min (°C) 18.2 18.1 16.4 13.2 10.1 8.0 6.4 6.8 9.1 12.0 14.4 16.6 12.4
    Mean Rain (mm) 98.2 109.7 125.1 106.1 109.4 132.6 69.9 65.4 62.0 78.5 80.5 79.3 1116.6
    Mean Rain Days 11.7 12.1 13.2 12.1 13.5 13.9 10.5 10.0 9.7 11.6 11.4 10.9 139.6