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Forecast

South Kempsey (31.0942°S, 152.8326°E, 15m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Hazy 15° 33°
    Chance of rain: 40%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:13am EDT 5:40am EDT 7:30pm EDT 7:57pm EDT
    NOW
    19.0° Feels Like: 19.1°
    Relative Humidity: 86%
    Dew: 16.6°
    Wind: NE 11km/h
    Gust: 11km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1014.1hPa
  3. Today Weather

    South Kempsey
    Now
    21.2°c
    Feels Like:
    19.9°
    Wind:
    N 19km/h
    Gusts:
    22km/h
    Humidity:
    78%
    Hazy
     
    15°
    Min
    33°
    Max
    Today in South Kempsey
    Hot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower about higher ground in the afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h becoming NE 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then tending NW/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 30 to 38.
    Tomorrow
    Hazy
    15°
    Min
    33°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers inland, slight chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm inland in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending SE/SW early in the morning then tending NE/SE in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 33.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower about higher ground in the afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h becoming NE 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then tending NW/NE 15 to 25 km/h in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 30 to 38.

    Forecast for South Kempsey (31.0942°S, 152.8326°E, 15m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Hazy Hazy Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 15° 15° 15° 15° 15° 15° 13°
    Maximum 33° 31° 28° 30° 33° 27° 30°
    Chance of rain 40% 40% 60% 20% 80% 40% 40%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Very High High Very High High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 14
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNE NE NE ENE SE E NE NE NNE NE SSW SSE N ENE
    Relative humidity 49% 40% 60% 47% 72% 62% 64% 50% 55% 45% 63% 57% 59% 47%
    Dew point 14°C 17°C 16°C 17°C 18°C 19°C 16°C 18°C 15°C 19°C 16°C 16°C 14°C 18°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    South Kempsey Rain Forecast


    South Kempsey 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 November to 30 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 2 December to 6 December, and 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 November to 2 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 21 December to 25 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    South Kempsey Rain Forecast


    South Kempsey 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    3
    3
    5
    6
    6
    7
    6
    6
    8
    6
    6
    3
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    South Kempsey Rain Forecast


    South Kempsey 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    21
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    HIGH
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov21

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 November to 30 November, 11 December to 15 December, and 21 December to 25 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, 2 December to 6 December, and 12 December to 16 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 November to 2 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 21 December to 25 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    South Kempsey Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Nov 17
    14.6 °C 27.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Nov 18
    10.8 °C 26.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 19
    8.5 °C 32.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 20
    10.1 °C 31.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 21
    14.9 °C 30 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    South Kempsey minimum temp history (31.0942°S, 152.8326°E, 15m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 35.6° 08/11/2019 Coldest this month 4.5° 10/11/2019
    Hottest on record 39.8 29/11/2006 Coldest on record 5.8 03/11/2003
    Hottest this year 40.4° 07/10/2019 Coldest this year -4.1° 31/05/2019
    Long term average 26.9° Long term average 14.5°
    Average this month 28.5° Average this month 10.1°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.1° 2002 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 12.8° 2016
    South Kempsey rainfall history (31.0942°S, 152.8326°E, 15m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 2.2mm 06/11/2019 Total This Month 3.4mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 112.0mm 13.6 days Wettest November on record 239.6mm 2002
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    South Kempsey Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 1044.9mm 133.2 day(s)
    Total For 2019 315.8mm 98.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 792.2mm 122.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 29.6mm Oct17
    Lowest Temperature -4.1°C May31
    Highest Temperature 40.4°C Oct 7
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    South Kempsey Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.3 28.8 27.4 25.2 22.4 20.2 19.9 21.6 24.4 25.8 26.9 28.2 25.0
    Mean Min (°C) 17.8 18.0 16.4 13.1 8.6 6.7 5.0 5.3 8.2 10.9 14.5 16.3 11.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 124.2 164.7 156.2 75.1 72.9 138.6 22.7 60.2 44.0 74.3 112.0 101.7 1149.8
    Mean Rain Days 14.1 14.2 15.6 13.6 11.9 12.8 9.8 8.3 9.1 10.2 13.6 14.2 142.1