Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Heavy Rainfall And Damaging Winds
for parts of Central Tablelands, Central West Slopes and Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Lower Western and Upper Western Forecast Districts.
Issued at 8:44 pm Thursday, 28 January 2021.
Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure over inland NSW is bringing unsettled conditions.
HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Central Tablelands, Central West Slopes and Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Lower Western and Upper Western
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Parkes, Young, West Wyalong, Griffith, Cobar and Ivanhoe.
67.2 mm was observed at MURRUMBURRAH in the 3hrs to 28.01.2021 18:00
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* Trees that have been damaged by fire are likely to be more unstable and more likely to fall.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
* If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
* Be aware that run-off from rainfall in fire affected areas may behave differently and be more rapid. It may also contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* After bushfires, heavy rain and the loss of foliage can make the ground soft and heavy, leading to a greater chance of landslides.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 11:45 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Shepherds (35.0167°S, 147.4667°E, 247m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW
15° 22° Chance of rain: 80% Likely amount: 20-40mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 5:58am EDT 6:26am EDT 8:21pm EDT 8:48pm EDT NOW16.7° Feels Like: 13.1° Relative Humidity: 92% Dew: 15.4° Wind: E 28km/h Gust: 32km/h Rainfall since 9am: 30.0mm Pressure: 1017.9hPa -
Today Weather
ShepherdsNow16.8°cFeels Like:12.4°Wind:NE 30km/hGusts:35km/hHumidity:85%
15°Min22°MaxToday in ShepherdsCloudy. Very high chance of showers. A thunderstorm likely, possibly severe. Heavy falls possible. Winds E 30 to 40 km/h turning NE 20 to 30 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 23 to 29.Tomorrow
15°Min22°MaxPartly cloudy. High chance of showers in the SE, medium chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds NE 15 to 25 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming S/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 18 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. A thunderstorm likely, possibly severe. Heavy falls possible. Winds E 30 to 40 km/h turning NE 20 to 30 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 23 to 29.
Forecast for Shepherds (35.0167°S, 147.4667°E, 247m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary 
Minimum 15° 17° 17° 17° 16° 12° 12° Maximum 22° 29° 31° 31° 23° 24° 26° Chance of rain 80% 80% 30% 50% 60% 20% 40% Likely amount 20-40mm 1-5mm < 1mm 5-10mm 10-20mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 31
(km/h)27
(km/h)13
(km/h)16
(km/h)8
(km/h)8
(km/h)24
(km/h)20
(km/h)25
(km/h)26
(km/h)11
(km/h)14
(km/h)12
(km/h)12
(km/h)Wind direction ENE ENE NNE WNW E WSW ENE NE WNW W W W E NNW Relative humidity 77% 82% 83% 58% 75% 40% 64% 46% 71% 50% 64% 39% 64% 35% Dew point 14°C 16°C 17°C 18°C 18°C 15°C 15°C 17°C 13°C 10°C 10°C 8°C 11°C 8°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Shepherds Rain Forecast
Shepherds 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
HIGH29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
Feb 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
4
LOW5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
9
10
11
12
13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
LOW24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Shepherds Rain Forecast
Shepherds 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2021988668855787105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Shepherds Rain Forecast
Shepherds 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
HIGH29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
Feb 1
MEDIUM2
LOW3
4
LOW5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
9
10
11
12
13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
LOW24
25
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Shepherds Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Jan 2417.9 °C 40.8 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2522.7 °C 40.4 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 2624.2 °C 27.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Jan 2718.6 °C 32.1 °C 2.2 mmThursday
Jan 2820.3 °C 22.8 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Shepherds minimum temp history (35.0167°S, 147.4667°E, 247m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 40.8° 24/01/2021 Coldest this month 8.3° 17/01/2021 Hottest on record 44.8 23/01/2001 Coldest on record 3.4 13/01/1975 Hottest this year 40.8° 24/01/2021 Coldest this year 8.3° 17/01/2021 Long term average 31.9° Long term average 16.4° Average this month 31.6° Average this month 16.4° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 35.8° 1979 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 12.2° 1987 Shepherds rainfall history (35.0167°S, 147.4667°E, 247m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 10.6mm 07/01/2021 Total This Month 18.0mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 40.4mm 5.4 days Wettest January on record 174.4mm 1984 Driest on record 0.0mm 1957 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
- Broadmeadows
- Broome
- Cairns
- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
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Year to Date
Shepherds Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 40.4mm 5.4 day(s) Total For 2021 18.0mm 3.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 12.8mm 8.0 day(s) Wettest Day 10.6mm Jan 7 Lowest Temperature 8.3°C Jan17 Highest Temperature 40.8°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Shepherds Climatology
Shepherds Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.9 31.0 27.7 22.6 17.4 13.9 12.8 14.5 17.7 21.7 26.0 29.6 22.2 Mean Min (°C) 16.4 16.5 13.5 9.2 5.9 3.7 2.8 3.5 5.1 7.8 11.0 14.0 9.1 Mean Rain (mm) 40.4 40.4 45.0 39.7 50.6 50.9 53.8 52.1 49.2 56.9 47.4 46.3 574.3 Mean Rain Days 5.4 5.3 5.6 6.8 9.6 12.3 14.6 13.4 10.5 9.4 7.5 6.2 106.6
