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Forecast

Shelly Beach (33.3687°S, 151.4857°E, 32m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Hazy 19° 22°
    Chance of rain: 40%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:12am EDT 5:40am EDT 7:40pm EDT 8:07pm EDT
    NOW
    20.0° Feels Like: 17.8°
    Relative Humidity: 90%
    Dew: 18.3°
    Wind: S 26km/h
    Gust: 30km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Shelly Beach
    Now
    20.4°c
    Feels Like:
    21.5°
    Wind:
    ESE 6km/h
    Gusts:
    7km/h
    Humidity:
    79%
    Hazy
     
    19°
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Today in Shelly Beach
    Hot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Medium chance of showers during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h shifting E/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late morning and early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 32 to 39.
    Tomorrow
    Late shower
    19°
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending E/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 27 to 36.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Medium chance of showers during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h shifting E/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the late morning and early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 32 to 39.

    Forecast for Shelly Beach (33.3687°S, 151.4857°E, 32m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Hazy Late shower Possible shower Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 19° 19° 18° 20° 20° 18° 20°
    Maximum 22° 21° 21° 22° 25° 20° 21°
    Chance of rain 40% 80% 80% 60% 70% 30% 30%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 10-20mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 11
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WSW SSE SSW SE S S NNE ENE NNE N S SE ENE E
    Relative humidity 67% 80% 86% 80% 81% 80% 85% 77% 64% 57% 65% 64% 67% 69%
    Dew point 16°C 17°C 18°C 17°C 17°C 17°C 19°C 17°C 15°C 14°C 12°C 12°C 14°C 14°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Shelly Beach Rain Forecast


    Shelly Beach 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    HIGH
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 December to 16 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 26 December to 30 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 November to 2 December, 4 December to 8 December, and 10 December to 14 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 December to 13 December, and 22 December to 26 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Shelly Beach Rain Forecast


    Shelly Beach 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    3
    4
    5
    6
    5
    7
    6
    8
    7
    5
    6
    2
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Shelly Beach Rain Forecast


    Shelly Beach 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    HIGH
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    HIGH
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 December to 16 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 26 December to 30 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 November to 2 December, 4 December to 8 December, and 10 December to 14 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 December to 13 December, and 22 December to 26 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Shelly Beach Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Nov 18
    16.4 °C 26.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 19
    16.1 °C 31.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Nov 20
    18.5 °C 24.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 21
    17.3 °C 28.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Nov 22
    19.9 °C 22 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Shelly Beach minimum temp history (33.3687°S, 151.4857°E, 32m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 36.2° 12/11/2019 Coldest this month 11.7° 06/11/2019
    Hottest on record 40.3 20/11/2015 Coldest on record 8.8 16/11/2006
    Hottest this year 39.5° 05/01/2019 Coldest this year 6.7° 15/08/2019
    Long term average 23.7° Long term average 16.8°
    Average this month 26.0° Average this month 16.0°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.5° 2015 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 14.8° 1999
    Shelly Beach rainfall history (33.3687°S, 151.4857°E, 32m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 17.0mm 04/11/2019 Total This Month 22.0mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 96.3mm 12.5 days Wettest November on record 305.2mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Shelly Beach Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 1148.6mm 133.4 day(s)
    Total For 2019 1045.2mm 146.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 956.2mm 144.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 82.6mm Aug31
    Lowest Temperature 6.7°C Aug15
    Highest Temperature 39.5°C Jan 5
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Shelly Beach Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.1 26.0 25.1 22.9 20.3 18.0 17.3 18.8 21.0 22.7 23.7 24.9 22.2
    Mean Min (°C) 19.7 20.0 18.9 15.9 13.1 11.1 9.7 10.5 12.8 14.8 16.8 18.4 15.1
    Mean Rain (mm) 89.7 115.3 123.8 139.3 141.7 148.4 89.4 73.6 72.7 58.4 96.3 70.3 1223.3
    Mean Rain Days 12.3 12.0 13.3 13.8 13.6 13.5 11.4 9.0 11.5 10.5 12.5 11.3 140.7