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Forecast

Scotts Head (30.7467°S, 152.9927°E, 8m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Windy 17° 31°
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:12am EDT 5:39am EDT 7:29pm EDT 7:55pm EDT
    NOW
    28.5° Feels Like: 26.7°
    Relative Humidity: 46%
    Dew: 15.8°
    Wind: ENE 19km/h
    Gust: 20km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1010.5hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Scotts Head
    Now
    24.9°c
    Feels Like:
    17.7°
    Wind:
    NNE 50km/h
    Gusts:
    57km/h
    Humidity:
    64%
    Windy
     
    17°
    Min
    31°
    Max
    Today in Scotts Head
    Hot and mostly sunny. Medium chance of showers in the south during this afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h tending NE in the late afternoon then tending NW/NE in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 30 to 38.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    17°
    Min
    29°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers inland, slight chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm inland in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending SE/SW early in the morning then tending NE/SE in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 33.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Medium chance of showers in the south during this afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h tending NE in the late afternoon then tending NW/NE in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 30 to 38.

    Forecast for Scotts Head (30.7467°S, 152.9927°E, 8m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Windy Mostly sunny Clearing shower Late shower Late shower Late shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 17° 17° 17° 16° 16° 16° 14°
    Maximum 31° 29° 27° 29° 32° 25° 26°
    Chance of rain 30% 80% 80% 50% 60% 50% 20%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 33
    (km/h)
    41
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNE NE NNE NE NNE NE NNE NE NNE NE SSW SSE SE E
    Relative humidity 68% 66% 72% 68% 79% 73% 71% 66% 71% 65% 71% 67% 70% 67%
    Dew point 18°C 23°C 18°C 23°C 18°C 21°C 17°C 21°C 18°C 24°C 13°C 18°C 14°C 19°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Scotts Head Rain Forecast


    Scotts Head 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    HIGH
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 December to 16 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 26 December to 30 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 November to 2 December, 4 December to 8 December, and 10 December to 14 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 December to 13 December, and 22 December to 26 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Scotts Head Rain Forecast


    Scotts Head 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    3
    3
    5
    6
    6
    7
    6
    6
    8
    6
    6
    3
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Scotts Head Rain Forecast


    Scotts Head 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    LOW
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    HIGH
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    HIGH
    18
    LOW
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 December to 16 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 26 December to 30 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 November to 2 December, 4 December to 8 December, and 10 December to 14 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 December to 13 December, and 22 December to 26 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Scotts Head Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Nov 18
    15.3 °C -
    8.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Nov 19
    - -
    -
    Wednesday
    Nov 20
    - 28.1 °C
    -
    Thursday
    Nov 21
    16.1 °C 24.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Nov 22
    18.8 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Scotts Head minimum temp history (30.7467°S, 152.9927°E, 8m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 30.6° 08/11/2019 Coldest this month 13.0° 06/11/2019
    Hottest on record 41.7 18/11/1968 Coldest on record 9.0 17/11/2006
    Hottest this year 33.6° 05/02/2019 Coldest this year 7.2° 13/08/2019
    Long term average 24.6° Long term average 16.8°
    Average this month 25.3° Average this month 16.0°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.5° 1968 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 15.1° 1999
    Scotts Head rainfall history (30.7467°S, 152.9927°E, 8m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 8.0mm 18/11/2019 Total This Month 13.0mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 115.9mm 11.7 days Wettest November on record 434.8mm 1968
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Scotts Head Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 1365.9mm 124.7 day(s)
    Total For 2019 799.4mm 88.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 1158.1mm 96.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 74.0mm Mar 8
    Lowest Temperature 7.2°C Aug13
    Highest Temperature 33.6°C Feb 5
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Scotts Head Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 27.1 27.2 26.3 24.3 21.7 19.4 18.9 20.1 22.0 23.5 24.6 26.1 23.4
    Mean Min (°C) 19.7 19.8 18.8 16.7 14.5 12.3 11.3 11.9 13.6 15.2 16.8 18.5 15.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 146.8 170.6 187.1 169.6 132.0 138.2 76.8 82.0 56.6 90.3 115.9 117.7 1485.9
    Mean Rain Days 13.5 13.9 15.5 12.9 11.2 10.4 8.2 8.1 8.4 10.9 11.7 12.7 136.7