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Forecast

Rugby (34.3672°S, 149.0324°E, 594m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Windy 14° 25°
    Chance of rain: 10%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:15am EDT 6:42am EDT 7:55pm EDT 8:21pm EDT
    NOW
    15.6° Feels Like: 8.5°
    Relative Humidity: 64%
    Dew: 8.8°
    Wind: WNW 35km/h
    Gust: 56km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 2.4mm
    Pressure: 1006.9hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Rugby
    Now
    19.1°c
    Feels Like:
    15.8°
    Wind:
    WSW 17km/h
    Gusts:
    24km/h
    Humidity:
    56%
    Windy
     
    14°
    Min
    25°
    Max
    Today in Rugby
    Partly cloudy. Areas of raised dust possible. Medium chance of showers near the Victorian border during the morning and afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then turning SW in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 25.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    11°
    Min
    28°
    Max
    Sunny. Winds W/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching 23 to 28.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Rugby

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Areas of raised dust possible. Medium chance of showers near the Victorian border during the morning and afternoon. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then turning SW in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 17 and 25.

    Forecast for Rugby (34.3672°S, 149.0324°E, 594m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Windy Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 14° 11° 12° 13° 15° 17° 19°
    Maximum 25° 28° 29° 29° 31° 34° 35°
    Chance of rain 10% 5% 30% 10% 10% 20% 50%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Very High Very High Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 27
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W W S W ESE WNW E E E ENE E WNW NW WNW
    Relative humidity 73% 46% 69% 34% 76% 35% 72% 46% 75% 40% 75% 45% 65% 40%
    Dew point 11°C 12°C 10°C 10°C 13°C 11°C 12°C 16°C 16°C 16°C 18°C 20°C 19°C 19°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Rugby Rain Forecast


    Rugby 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    Mar 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Feb18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 February to 1 March, 10 March to 14 March, and 20 March to 24 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 March to 13 March, 14 March to 18 March, and 19 March to 23 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 February to 29 February, 11 March to 15 March, and 21 March to 25 March.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Rugby Rain Forecast


    Rugby 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    2020
    2021
    9
    7
    7
    5
    7
    7
    5
    5
    4
    7
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Feb 12

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout January with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 as per December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 1.3 in January. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, cooling even further by mid 2020. Six out of eight international models continue to maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of the year, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, which is what you will expect for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values until the austral winter, with indications we could see another positive event late winter/spring. However, the skill of the models is low at this time of the year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours average-to-below average rainfall for parts of inland NSW and Qld for the end of summer and autumn. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) had its latest onset on record in early February at Darwin (by its technical definition) with the current prognosis suggesting another below average wet season for northern Australia. The northern half of the country however, could see a wet end to the wet season compared to the season thus far. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Rugby Rain Forecast


    Rugby 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    Mar 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    HIGH
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Feb18

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 February to 1 March, 10 March to 14 March, and 20 March to 24 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 March to 13 March, 14 March to 18 March, and 19 March to 23 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 February to 29 February, 11 March to 15 March, and 21 March to 25 March.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Rugby Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Feb 14
    15.8 °C 26.1 °C
    5.6 mm
    Saturday
    Feb 15
    16.0 °C 28.4 °C
    0.2 mm
    Sunday
    Feb 16
    15.9 °C 22.5 °C
    18.4 mm
    Monday
    Feb 17
    15.9 °C 23.9 °C
    0.6 mm
    Tuesday
    Feb 18
    16.1 °C -
    0.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Rugby minimum temp history (34.3672°S, 149.0324°E, 594m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 41.0° 01/02/2020 Coldest this month 10.5° 04/02/2020
    Hottest on record 41.2 11/02/2017 Coldest on record 3.3 13/02/1996
    Hottest this year 41.7° 04/01/2020 Coldest this year 10.5° 04/02/2020
    Long term average 26.5° Long term average 13.6°
    Average this month 25.6° Average this month 16.6°
    Hottest February On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.1° 2004 Coldest February on record Avg. min. temp. 10.9° 1996
    Rugby rainfall history (34.3672°S, 149.0324°E, 594m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 48.8mm 10/02/2020 Total This Month 118.6mm
    13.0 days
    Long Term Average 60.0mm 9.5 days Wettest February on record 167.0mm 2001
    Driest on record 2.5mm 1979
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Rugby Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Feb 121.5mm 19.3 day(s)
    Total For 2020 147.0mm 23.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 124.6mm 20.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 48.8mm Feb10
    Lowest Temperature 10.5°C Feb 4
    Highest Temperature 41.7°C Jan 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Rugby Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 27.9 26.5 24.0 20.0 15.9 12.3 11.5 13.2 16.5 19.8 22.9 25.9 19.6
    Mean Min (°C) 13.7 13.6 11.3 7.8 4.6 2.6 1.6 2.2 4.6 7.0 9.6 11.8 7.4
    Mean Rain (mm) 61.5 60.0 56.7 44.6 40.6 54.8 42.2 53.0 49.8 52.0 62.7 62.7 640.9
    Mean Rain Days 9.8 9.5 11.0 11.0 12.2 15.4 15.9 13.7 11.1 11.0 11.0 9.7 132.8