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Forecast

Reserve Creek (28.3546°S, 153.4841°E, 16m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Late thunder 21° 29°
    late thunder
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:14am EDT 6:38am EDT 7:21pm EDT 7:44pm EDT
    NOW
    27.7° Feels Like: 29.6°
    Relative Humidity: 63%
    Dew: 20.0°
    Wind: S 9km/h
    Gust: 11km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 1.0mm
    Pressure: 1008.4hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Reserve Creek
    Now
    25.9°c
    Feels Like:
    27.6°
    Wind:
    S 13km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    75%
    Late thunder
     
    21°
    Min
    29°
    Max
    Today in Reserve Creek
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures around 30.
    Tomorrow
    Clearing shower
    21°
    Min
    29°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming SE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 20 with daytime temperatures reaching the high 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Reserve Creek

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures around 30.

    Forecast for Reserve Creek (28.3546°S, 153.4841°E, 16m AMSL)
      Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
    Summary Late thunder Clearing shower Mostly sunny Sunny Mostly cloudy Thunderstorms Showers
    Minimum 21° 21° 20° 21° 21° 21° 21°
    Maximum 29° 29° 29° 30° 29° 28° 27°
    Chance of rain 50% 30% 10% 20% 60% 90% 90%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 5-10mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 8
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SW SE SSW S SW S W E SSW SSE S SE SSE ESE
    Relative humidity 85% 70% 83% 64% 80% 60% 77% 55% 83% 69% 88% 75% 87% 79%
    Dew point 22°C 23°C 21°C 21°C 20°C 21°C 21°C 20°C 22°C 23°C 22°C 23°C 22°C 24°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Reserve Creek Rain Forecast


    Reserve Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    Mar 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    HIGH
    4
    HIGH
    5
    HIGH
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    HIGH
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    HIGH
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    HIGH
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Feb27

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 March to 11 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 March to 9 March, and 11 March to 15 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 March to 11 March, 11 March to 15 March, and 27 March to 31 March.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Reserve Creek Rain Forecast


    Reserve Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    2020
    2021
    10
    6
    7
    7
    6
    7
    6
    6
    7
    7
    5
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Feb 12

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout January with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 as per December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 1.3 in January. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, cooling even further by mid 2020. Six out of eight international models continue to maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of the year, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, which is what you will expect for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values until the austral winter, with indications we could see another positive event late winter/spring. However, the skill of the models is low at this time of the year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours average-to-below average rainfall for parts of inland NSW and Qld for the end of summer and autumn. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) had its latest onset on record in early February at Darwin (by its technical definition) with the current prognosis suggesting another below average wet season for northern Australia. The northern half of the country however, could see a wet end to the wet season compared to the season thus far. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Reserve Creek Rain Forecast


    Reserve Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    Mar 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    HIGH
    4
    HIGH
    5
    HIGH
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    HIGH
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    HIGH
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    HIGH
    21
    LOW
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Feb27

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 March to 11 March, 13 March to 17 March, and 22 March to 26 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 March to 9 March, and 11 March to 15 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 March to 11 March, 11 March to 15 March, and 27 March to 31 March.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Reserve Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Feb 23
    19.0 °C 26.1 °C
    3.0 mm
    Monday
    Feb 24
    19.9 °C 25.4 °C
    8.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Feb 25
    20.3 °C 27.5 °C
    22.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Feb 26
    20.1 °C 30.2 °C
    9.0 mm
    Thursday
    Feb 27
    20.5 °C 27 °C
    14.5 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Reserve Creek minimum temp history (28.3546°S, 153.4841°E, 16m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 34.9° 03/02/2020 Coldest this month 19.0° 23/02/2020
    Hottest on record 40.9 21/02/2004 Coldest on record 13.8 05/02/1984
    Hottest this year 34.9° 03/02/2020 Coldest this year 15.9° 04/01/2020
    Long term average 29.0° Long term average 19.6°
    Average this month 28.9° Average this month 21.2°
    Hottest February On Record Avg. max. temp. 31.7° 2004 Coldest February on record Avg. min. temp. 18.2° 2000
    Reserve Creek rainfall history (28.3546°S, 153.4841°E, 16m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 191.0mm 13/02/2020 Total This Month 699.1mm
    17.0 days
    Long Term Average 220.6mm 15.9 days Wettest February on record 645.6mm 1973
    Driest on record 15.2mm 2014
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Reserve Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Feb 432.0mm 30.9 day(s)
    Total For 2020 963.0mm 28.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 44.9mm 16.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 191.0mm Feb13
    Lowest Temperature 15.9°C Jan 4
    Highest Temperature 34.9°C Feb 3
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Reserve Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.5 29.0 28.1 26.1 23.5 21.2 21.0 22.4 25.0 26.5 27.7 29.1 25.8
    Mean Min (°C) 19.7 19.6 18.3 15.6 12.6 9.9 8.5 8.8 11.5 14.1 16.7 18.5 14.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 211.4 220.6 224.5 154.4 132.6 105.5 61.8 55.4 41.4 104.1 124.7 168.9 1611.2
    Mean Rain Days 15.0 15.9 17.0 14.2 12.6 11.0 8.7 7.8 8.0 10.4 12.8 13.6 143.0