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Forecast

Reserve Creek (28.3546°S, 153.4841°E, 16m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Rain 17° 22°
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:54am EST 6:18am EST 5:24pm EST 5:48pm EST
    NOW
    19.5° Feels Like: 18.5°
    Relative Humidity: 85%
    Dew: 16.9°
    Wind: N 17km/h
    Gust: 20km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 2.6mm
    Pressure: 1008.5hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Reserve Creek
    Now
    18.8°c
    Feels Like:
    18.1°
    Wind:
    N 20km/h
    Gusts:
    28km/h
    Humidity:
    100%
    Rain
     
    17°
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Today in Reserve Creek
    Mostly clear. Slight chance of a shower along the coastal fringe. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds W 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Sunny. Light winds becoming W 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching the low 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly clear. Slight chance of a shower along the coastal fringe. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds W 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening.

    Forecast for Reserve Creek (28.3546°S, 153.4841°E, 16m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Rain Sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 17° 14° 11°
    Maximum 22° 23° 22° 22° 25° 23° 22°
    Chance of rain 90% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate High High High High - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 13
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N NW WSW WSW WSW SSW WNW NNE WNW WNW W W W W
    Relative humidity 88% 67% 60% 37% 52% 35% 52% 41% 50% 35% 43% 34% 48% 37%
    Dew point 17°C 16°C 8°C 8°C 6°C 5°C 7°C 8°C 10°C 8°C 5°C 6°C 6°C 7°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Reserve Creek Rain Forecast


    Reserve Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    LOW
    Sep 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug15

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 8 September to 12 September, and 16 September to 20 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 September to 18 September, and 18 September to 22 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 August to 25 August, 7 September to 11 September, and 14 September to 18 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Reserve Creek Rain Forecast


    Reserve Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    2020
    2021
    7
    7
    8
    7
    7
    7
    6
    6
    7
    7
    7
    4
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 5

    ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific show a slight decrease in the intensity of cooling compared to June, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.0 in July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 4.2 in the same month, a swing into positive values compared to June. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific through the end of winter and potentially reach La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring, with four of these indicating La Nina by Spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 54:41 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Two of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becoming established during the Austral spring, with the remaining four indicating a neutral phase. Of the four neutral models, including the BOM, three are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, with only the Canadian model trending positive. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short-term outlook favours above average rainfall across most of Australia over the next fortnight, with the exception of western TAS, far southern VIC, and northern QLD and the NT. These expected wetter than average conditions will likely be due to the passage of moisture troughs inland and fronts, in part driven by the positive SAM. Models are then indicating a continued trend to above average rainfall for inland SA, all but the far north of the NT, western, central and southern QLD, northern and western NSW and parts of southern WA. Parts of WA’s Pilbara and Kimberley however are showing signs of below average rainfall into early spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Reserve Creek Rain Forecast


    Reserve Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    LOW
    Sep 1
    LOW
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug15

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 8 September to 12 September, and 16 September to 20 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 September to 18 September, and 18 September to 22 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 August to 25 August, 7 September to 11 September, and 14 September to 18 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Reserve Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Tuesday
    Aug 11
    14.2 °C 21.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Aug 12
    10.1 °C 23.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Aug 13
    9.5 °C 28.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Aug 14
    10.0 °C 24.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Aug 15
    15.8 °C -
    2.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Reserve Creek minimum temp history (28.3546°S, 153.4841°E, 16m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 28.3° 13/08/2020 Coldest this month 5.1° 06/08/2020
    Hottest on record 35.9 24/08/2009 Coldest on record -1.4 15/08/2008
    Hottest this year 34.9° 03/02/2020 Coldest this year 2.2° 05/07/2020
    Long term average 22.4° Long term average 8.8°
    Average this month 22.9° Average this month 9.7°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.5° 2009 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 5.7° 2008
    Reserve Creek rainfall history (28.3546°S, 153.4841°E, 16m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 13.0mm 08/08/2020 Total This Month 22.0mm
    3.0 days
    Long Term Average 55.4mm 7.8 days Wettest August on record 255.0mm 1987
    Driest on record 0.0mm 2012
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Reserve Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 1166.2mm 102.2 day(s)
    Total For 2020 1429.4mm 85.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 548.7mm 70.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 191.0mm Feb13
    Lowest Temperature 2.2°C Jul 5
    Highest Temperature 34.9°C Feb 3
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Reserve Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.5 29.0 28.1 26.1 23.5 21.2 21.0 22.4 25.0 26.5 27.7 29.1 25.8
    Mean Min (°C) 19.7 19.6 18.3 15.6 12.6 9.9 8.5 8.8 11.5 14.1 16.7 18.5 14.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 211.4 220.6 224.5 154.4 132.6 105.5 61.8 55.4 41.4 104.1 124.7 168.9 1611.2
    Mean Rain Days 15.0 15.9 17.0 14.2 12.6 11.0 8.7 7.8 8.0 10.4 12.8 13.6 143.0