Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Marine Wind Warning Summary for New South Wales
Issued at 10:00 PM EDT on Monday 09 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Tuesday 10 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Monday 09 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Hunter Coast, Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast and Batemans Coast
Wind Warnings for Tuesday 10 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Sydney Closed Waters, Byron Coast, Hunter Coast, Sydney Coast, Illawarra Coast, Batemans Coast and Eden Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:10 am EDT Tuesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Punchbowl (33.9257°S, 151.0546°E, 21m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW17° 37° Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:09am EDT 5:38am EDT 7:59pm EDT 8:28pm EDT NOW20.7° Feels Like: 23.1° Relative Humidity: 85% Dew: 18.1° Wind: NNE 2km/h Gust: 6km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
PunchbowlNow21.3°cFeels Like:22.7°Wind:ENE 7km/hGusts:7km/hHumidity:81%17°Min37°MaxToday in PunchbowlHot. Becoming cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or storm in the late afternoon. Areas of smoke haze, thick in the morning. Winds NW/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending NW/SW 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day then tending S 30 to 45 km/h in the early afternoon.Tomorrow17°Min37°MaxPartly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze, mainly in the west. Winds S 20 to 30 km/h tending SE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot. Becoming cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or storm in the late afternoon. Areas of smoke haze, thick in the morning. Winds NW/NE 15 to 25 km/h tending NW/SW 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day then tending S 30 to 45 km/h in the early afternoon.
Forecast for Punchbowl (33.9257°S, 151.0546°E, 21m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 17° 16° 16° 16° 15° 16° 16° Maximum 37° 23° 23° 22° 28° 28° 29° Chance of rain 20% 40% 40% 30% 10% 40% 10% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 9
(km/h)24
(km/h)18
(km/h)22
(km/h)13
(km/h)22
(km/h)10
(km/h)19
(km/h)8
(km/h)21
(km/h)11
(km/h)22
(km/h)9
(km/h)22
(km/h)Wind direction N SSE SSW SSE S SSE SE ESE NW E NW ESE SE ESE Relative humidity 65% 49% 69% 59% 70% 61% 63% 56% 62% 49% 60% 49% 59% 46% Dew point 19°C 21°C 14°C 15°C 14°C 15°C 13°C 13°C 14°C 17°C 15°C 15°C 14°C 17°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Punchbowl Rain Forecast
Punchbowl 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
10
LOW11
12
LOW13
LOW14
15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
HIGH20
LOW21
LOW22
23
LOW24
25
LOW26
LOW27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
HIGH3
LOW4
LOW5
LOW6
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Punchbowl Rain Forecast
Punchbowl 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020136586665627105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Punchbowl Rain Forecast
Punchbowl 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT9
10
LOW11
12
LOW13
LOW14
15
LOW16
LOW17
MEDIUM18
MEDIUM19
HIGH20
LOW21
LOW22
23
LOW24
25
LOW26
LOW27
MEDIUM28
LOW29
30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
HIGH3
LOW4
LOW5
LOW6
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Punchbowl Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Dec 0511.0 °C 33.5 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0615.0 °C 28.7 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 0714.7 °C 26.8 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 0818.0 °C 25.5 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0920.2 °C 27 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Punchbowl minimum temp history (33.9257°S, 151.0546°E, 21m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 33.5° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 8.5° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 40.3 01/12/2004 Coldest on record 8.5 26/12/2006 Hottest this year 38.9° 31/01/2019 Coldest this year 1.1° 24/08/2019 Long term average 26.5° Long term average 16.8° Average this month 27.5° Average this month 14.8° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.6° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 14.9° 1995 Punchbowl rainfall history (33.9257°S, 151.0546°E, 21m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 64.7mm 10.4 days Wettest December on record 176.2mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Punchbowl Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 963.6mm 127.9 day(s) Total For 2019 688.4mm 91.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 704.8mm 113.0 day(s) Wettest Day 54.2mm Sep18 Lowest Temperature 1.1°C Aug24 Highest Temperature 38.9°C Jan31 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Punchbowl Climatology
Punchbowl Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.8 27.3 26.0 23.4 20.6 18.1 17.5 19.0 21.9 23.7 24.8 26.5 23.1 Mean Min (°C) 18.4 18.4 16.5 12.8 9.3 7.1 5.8 6.5 9.5 12.1 14.9 16.8 12.4 Mean Rain (mm) 86.8 106.7 82.0 110.9 78.9 109.0 66.6 68.6 47.4 62.6 79.4 64.7 966.9 Mean Rain Days 11.3 11.5 12.4 11.5 10.8 12.7 11.1 8.0 8.0 8.5 11.7 10.4 120.1