Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Central Ranges, Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 04:39 PM EDT on Saturday 14 December 2019
Weather Situation
Hot and dry winds will generate dangerous fire conditions across parts of the central and northern inland on Sunday.
For Sunday 15 December:
Very High Fire Danger for the following areas:
Central Ranges, Northern Slopes and North Western
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Sunday.
Forecast
Puddledock (30.3842°S, 151.7486°E, 1108m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY11° 32° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:18am EDT 5:45am EDT 7:52pm EDT 8:19pm EDT NOW15.7° Feels Like: 14.8° Relative Humidity: 96% Dew: 15.1° Wind: ENE 13km/h Gust: 15km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.8hPa -
Today Weather
PuddledockNow16.7°cFeels Like:16.0°Wind:SE 13km/hGusts:15km/hHumidity:94%11°Min32°MaxToday in PuddledockHot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Slight chance of a shower in the north, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 29 to 35.Tomorrow13°Min34°MaxHot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Light winds becoming SW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then shifting E/SE in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 13 and 20 with daytime temperatures reaching 31 to 39. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Slight chance of a shower in the north, near zero chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 29 to 35.
Forecast for Puddledock (30.3842°S, 151.7486°E, 1108m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary Minimum 11° 13° 10° 7° 10° 15° 14° Maximum 32° 34° 28° 31° 35° 37° 38° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 10% 5% 10% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 13
(km/h)26
(km/h)25
(km/h)28
(km/h)24
(km/h)26
(km/h)24
(km/h)25
(km/h)17
(km/h)21
(km/h)19
(km/h)26
(km/h)21
(km/h)23
(km/h)Wind direction WNW WSW WSW SW ESE ESE E ESE W SW W SSE WNW SSW Relative humidity 52% 18% 28% 14% 57% 30% 48% 22% 34% 13% 35% 21% 37% 19% Dew point 10°C 5°C 5°C 3°C 8°C 9°C 5°C 7°C 7°C 3°C 8°C 12°C 10°C 11°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Puddledock Rain Forecast
Puddledock 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
MEDIUM26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
HIGH8
HIGH9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Puddledock Rain Forecast
Puddledock 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020356675646657105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Puddledock Rain Forecast
Puddledock 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LOW23
MEDIUM24
MEDIUM25
MEDIUM26
MEDIUM27
MEDIUM28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
MEDIUM2
HIGH3
MEDIUM4
LOW5
MEDIUM6
MEDIUM7
HIGH8
HIGH9
LOW10
LOW11
LOW12
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec14Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 December to 27 December, 30 December to 3 January, and 12 January to 16 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 December to 30 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Puddledock Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Tuesday
Dec 1014.0 °C 33.1 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1117.6 °C 34.1 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 1214.4 °C 31.3 °C 5.2 mmFriday
Dec 1315.3 °C 23.6 °C 0.2 mmSaturday
Dec 1413.8 °C 28 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Puddledock minimum temp history (30.3842°S, 151.7486°E, 1108m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.1° 11/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.3° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 33.7 29/12/2013 Coldest on record 1.3 07/12/2002 Hottest this year 36.0° 19/01/2019 Coldest this year -5.9° 31/05/2019 Long term average 24.7° Long term average 12.1° Average this month 27.6° Average this month 12.8° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.3° 2016 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 10.3° 2011 Puddledock rainfall history (30.3842°S, 151.7486°E, 1108m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 11.6mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 19.0mm
4.0 daysLong Term Average 107.2mm 13.3 days Wettest December on record 161.8mm 2016 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Puddledock Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 856.4mm 143.7 day(s) Total For 2019 288.0mm 101.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 583.4mm 139.0 day(s) Wettest Day 33.6mm Jan28 Lowest Temperature -5.9°C May31 Highest Temperature 36.0°C Jan19 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Puddledock Climatology
Puddledock Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.0 25.2 23.1 19.7 15.8 12.7 12.1 13.8 17.5 20.5 22.9 24.7 19.5 Mean Min (°C) 13.4 13.2 11.4 7.8 4.3 2.4 1.3 1.8 4.8 7.2 10.2 12.1 7.5 Mean Rain (mm) 94.9 98.6 78.3 40.7 44.6 53.5 47.3 50.3 54.8 75.1 111.1 107.2 858.9 Mean Rain Days 12.0 12.5 11.9 11.1 11.9 14.8 12.6 10.1 10.2 10.5 12.8 13.3 134.0