Forecast
Polo Flat (36.2395°S, 149.1521°E, 828m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY8° 27° Chance of rain: 30% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:10am EDT 5:40am EDT 8:15pm EDT 8:46pm EDT NOW10.8° Feels Like: 6.0° Relative Humidity: 68% Dew: 5.1° Wind: SSW 19km/h Gust: 20km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1015.7hPa -
Today Weather
Polo FlatNow7.2°cFeels Like:6.0°Wind:CAL 0km/hGusts:0km/hHumidity:85%8°Min27°MaxToday in Polo FlatMostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze near the Victorian border. Light winds becoming SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.Tomorrow8°Min24°MaxPartly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the east, near zero chance elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze near the Victorian border. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Polo Flat
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze near the Victorian border. Light winds becoming SE/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.
Forecast for Polo Flat (36.2395°S, 149.1521°E, 828m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary Minimum 8° 8° 7° 9° 9° 9° 12° Maximum 27° 24° 28° 29° 30° 35° 35° Chance of rain 30% 5% 30% 20% 5% 5% 10% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 16
(km/h)19
(km/h)11
(km/h)18
(km/h)12
(km/h)24
(km/h)18
(km/h)30
(km/h)18
(km/h)25
(km/h)10
(km/h)18
(km/h)19
(km/h)22
(km/h)Wind direction SW SSW SW SW WNW WSW WNW W SW SSW W S WNW WSW Relative humidity 46% 22% 64% 26% 47% 21% 34% 14% 35% 17% 32% 8% 20% 11% Dew point 4°C 4°C 7°C 3°C 7°C 4°C 3°C -1°C 2°C 2°C 6°C -4°C 1°C 0°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Polo Flat Rain Forecast
Polo Flat 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
LOW13
LOW14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
28
LOW29
MEDIUM30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
2
3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Polo Flat Rain Forecast
Polo Flat 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020245764763436105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Dec 11
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive SAM status: Negative Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific continued to exhibit a slight warming during November. The Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.6 and 0.7 throughout the month of November. However, this has dropped to 0.4 since early December. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.3 in November. The current outlook continues to suggest warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Seven out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first quarter of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest a less than 40% chance of another El Nino developing over the next 6 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in the positive side of neutral, though it has significant strength after peaking in October . All six international models maintain a positive event until January. In terms of rainfall across Australia, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month across the west. However, the climate outlook for the eastern states has seen a significant drying over the past 2 months. The current outlook now favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for the eastern states. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones in Qld or East Coast Lows. For northern Australia, the current outlook favours a late onset of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Usually, Darwin tends to see the onset of NAM around christmas day. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to enhance frontal activity over southern SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern NSW. This has offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which continue to see average-to-above average rainfall odds through December and early January. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggests neutral odds for the second half of summer.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Polo Flat Rain Forecast
Polo Flat 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT12
LOW13
LOW14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
LOW26
LOW27
28
LOW29
MEDIUM30
31
MEDIUMJan 1
2
3
MEDIUM4
MEDIUM5
LOW6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec11Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 December to 2 January, 2 January to 6 January, and 11 January to 15 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 January to 6 January, 6 January to 10 January, and 11 January to 15 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Polo Flat Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Dec 072.0 °C 25.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 085.0 °C 28.5 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 097.5 °C 33.0 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Dec 109.5 °C 34.4 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 1112.0 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Polo Flat minimum temp history (36.2395°S, 149.1521°E, 828m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 34.0° 10/12/2019 Coldest this month -1.4° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 36.7 30/12/2005 Coldest on record -3.0 13/12/1996 Hottest this year 39.5° 16/01/2019 Coldest this year -9.0° 24/08/2019 Long term average 25.0° Long term average 8.9° Average this month 24.6° Average this month 5.5° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.8° 1979 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 6.3° 1984 Polo Flat rainfall history (36.2395°S, 149.1521°E, 828m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 0.0mm
0.0 daysLong Term Average 56.7mm 8.9 days Wettest December on record 184.6mm 1979 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Polo Flat Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 542.8mm 106.3 day(s) Total For 2019 301.9mm 60.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 272.8mm 80.0 day(s) Wettest Day 47.0mm Feb 8 Lowest Temperature -9.0°C Aug24 Highest Temperature 39.5°C Jan16 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Polo Flat Climatology
Polo Flat Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.3 26.3 23.8 19.4 15.6 11.9 11.4 13.4 16.3 19.5 22.5 25.0 19.4 Mean Min (°C) 10.8 10.6 8.2 4.1 0.7 -1.3 -2.7 -1.9 1.2 3.7 6.9 8.9 4.2 Mean Rain (mm) 58.2 60.3 58.1 40.1 29.6 41.1 28.2 27.0 36.2 44.7 62.6 56.7 543.8 Mean Rain Days 8.1 7.9 8.3 8.2 8.0 10.0 8.6 8.6 9.6 9.4 10.7 8.9 103.1