Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Illawarra, South Coast and parts of Hunter, Metropolitan, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands and Snowy Mountains Forecast Districts.
Issued at 11:02 am Thursday, 22 August 2019.
VIGOROUS WINDS OVER EASTERN NSW
Strong to gale-force winds are affecting southeast New South Wales as a series of cold fronts skim across southeast Australia. The last of these fronts will clear the region later today, after which conditions will gradually ease.
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 55 to 65 km/h, with gusts in excess of 90 km/h, are likely in parts of eastern NSW today.
For inland areas, the main threat is during the morning, possibly lingering into early afternoon before easing.
For the coast, areas south of Sydney may be affected in the morning and afternoon, while Sydney and north should see the windiest weather in the afternoon and early evening, before easing overnight.
Locations which may be affected include Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong, Nowra, Batemans Bay and Goulburn.
Severe weather is no longer occurring in the Mid North Coast, South West Slopes, Australian Capital Territory and Northern Tablelands districts and the warning for these districts is CANCELLED.
Wind gusts during Wednesday: Green Cape 102 km/h, Mt Ginini 95 km/h, Goulburn 93 km/h.
Wind gusts Thursday morning: Albion Park 95 km/h, High Range 98 km/h, Mount Boyce 98 km/h, Green Cape 109 km/h, Montague Island 104 km/h, Gabo Island 91k m/h.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Thursday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Polo Flat (36.2395°S, 149.1521°E, 828m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
4° 10° Chance of rain: 10% Likely amount: < 1mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:13am EST 6:39am EST 5:36pm EST 6:02pm EST NOW7.4° Feels Like: -5.0° Relative Humidity: 52% Dew: -1.8° Wind: SW 52km/h Gust: SW 52km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1015.8hPa -
Today Weather
Polo FlatNow6.3°cFeels Like:-6.3°Wind:SW 52km/hGusts:72km/hHumidity:51%
4°Min10°MaxToday in Polo FlatPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers near the Victorian border, slight chance elsewhere, clearing around the middle of the day. Morning snow possible above 1300 metres. Winds SW 35 to 55 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.Tomorrow
-8°Min19°MaxSunny. Areas of morning frost, locally severe. Winds W/SW 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming W/NW 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers near the Victorian border, slight chance elsewhere, clearing around the middle of the day. Morning snow possible above 1300 metres. Winds SW 35 to 55 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.
Forecast for Polo Flat (36.2395°S, 149.1521°E, 828m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary 
Minimum 4° -8° -4° -4° -1° -4° -3° Maximum 10° 19° 17° 14° 13° 14° 15° Chance of rain 10% 5% 40% 30% 20% 5% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - - Frost risk Slight Severe Severe Severe Severe Severe Severe 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 41
(km/h)38
(km/h)11
(km/h)16
(km/h)23
(km/h)28
(km/h)15
(km/h)18
(km/h)9
(km/h)14
(km/h)9
(km/h)14
(km/h)18
(km/h)22
(km/h)Wind direction SW SW NNE NW NW WNW SW SW WSW SSW N WNW NW WNW Relative humidity 63% 45% 55% 16% 45% 32% 84% 45% 80% 37% 78% 36% 68% 36% Dew point -1°C -2°C -7°C -7°C -3°C -0°C -1°C 2°C 1°C -1°C 0°C -1°C 1°C -0°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Polo Flat Rain Forecast
Polo Flat 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT22
LOW23
24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
27
28
MEDIUM29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
Sep 1
LOW2
LOW3
HIGH4
HIGH5
LOW6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
MEDIUM9
LOW10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
HIGH14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 August to 4 September, 12 September to 16 September, and 25 September to 29 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 September to 29 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 August to 3 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 24 September to 28 September.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Polo Flat Rain Forecast
Polo Flat 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul20192020445566665586105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Aug 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SST's) continued a cooling trend over the central Pacific during July. The Nino3.4 index lingered at about 0.5 through the month of July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 in July, which is now in neutral territory. Current consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will remain across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Although, six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the remainder of 2019, none of these are reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. Moreover, the IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 50% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive. Six out of six international models maintain a positive event until mid-spring. The climate outlook for the four weeks left in winter and spring, favours average-to-below average rainfall across the southern half of Australia, in particular over the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during the end of winter and the first half of spring due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. SST's along the eastern seaboard remain significantly warmer than average (especially off NSW) maintaining a high risk of extreme weather events such as East Coast Lows (ECLs). These can bring intense periods of rainfall east of the Great Dividing Range, leading to flash flooding.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Polo Flat Rain Forecast
Polo Flat 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT22
LOW23
24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
27
28
MEDIUM29
HIGH30
MEDIUM31
Sep 1
LOW2
LOW3
HIGH4
HIGH5
LOW6
MEDIUM7
MEDIUM8
MEDIUM9
LOW10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
HIGH14
LOW15
MEDIUM16
LOW17
LOW18
LOW19
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug22Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 August to 4 September, 12 September to 16 September, and 25 September to 29 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 September to 29 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 August to 3 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 24 September to 28 September.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Polo Flat Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Aug 170.3 °C 14.1 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Aug 18-2.9 °C 19.8 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Aug 19-0.8 °C 8.8 °C 2.8 mmTuesday
Aug 20-4.2 °C 12.7 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Aug 21-0.8 °C 18 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Polo Flat minimum temp history (36.2395°S, 149.1521°E, 828m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 19.8° 18/08/2019 Coldest this month -7.8° 03/08/2019 Hottest on record 24.5 26/08/1995 Coldest on record -10.5 08/08/2006 Hottest this year 39.5° 16/01/2019 Coldest this year -8.8° 20/06/2019 Long term average 13.4° Long term average -1.9° Average this month 13.7° Average this month -2.6° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 17.1° 1982 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. -4.1° 1994 Polo Flat rainfall history (36.2395°S, 149.1521°E, 828m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 10.4mm 09/08/2019 Total This Month 13.7mm
4.0 daysLong Term Average 27.0mm 8.6 days Wettest August on record 108.3mm 1982 -
Popup - Radar
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Year to Date
Polo Flat Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 342.6mm 67.7 day(s) Total For 2019 244.5mm 44.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 180.0mm 54.0 day(s) Wettest Day 47.0mm Feb 8 Lowest Temperature -8.8°C Jun20 Highest Temperature 39.5°C Jan16 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Polo Flat Climatology
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.3 26.3 23.8 19.4 15.6 11.9 11.4 13.4 16.3 19.5 22.5 25.0 19.4 Mean Min (°C) 10.8 10.6 8.2 4.1 0.7 -1.3 -2.7 -1.9 1.2 3.7 6.9 8.9 4.2 Mean Rain (mm) 58.2 60.3 58.1 40.1 29.6 41.1 28.2 27.0 36.2 44.7 62.6 56.7 543.8 Mean Rain Days 8.1 7.9 8.3 8.2 8.0 10.0 8.6 8.6 9.6 9.4 10.7 8.9 103.1
