Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Marine Wind Warning Summary for New South Wales
Issued at 10:45 AM EDT on Friday 06 December 2019
for the period until midnight EDT Saturday 07 December 2019
Wind Warnings for Friday 06 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Eden Coast
Wind Warnings for Saturday 07 December
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Eden Coast
Cancellation for the following areas:
Macquarie Coast
The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Friday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Forecast
Pipeclay (31.4392°S, 152.5527°E, 18m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY15° 31° Chance of rain: 20% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:09am EDT 5:36am EDT 7:42pm EDT 8:10pm EDT NOW29.3° Feels Like: 27.7° Relative Humidity: 42% Dew: 15.1° Wind: ENE 17km/h Gust: 24km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1005.2hPa -
Today Weather
PipeclayNow33.3°cFeels Like:27.6°Wind:NE 28km/hGusts:39km/hHumidity:22%15°Min31°MaxToday in PipeclayMostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze, thick at times. Winds W/NW 15 to 25 km/h tending NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 31 to 37.Tomorrow16°Min27°MaxMostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze. Winds S/SW 15 to 25 km/h turning E/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 27 to 33. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke haze, thick at times. Winds W/NW 15 to 25 km/h tending NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening then becoming light in the late evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 31 to 37.
Forecast for Pipeclay (31.4392°S, 152.5527°E, 18m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 15° 16° 15° 16° 17° 17° 17° Maximum 31° 27° 27° 27° 31° 29° 25° Chance of rain 20% 30% 30% 20% 5% 40% 90% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Very High - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 7
(km/h)16
(km/h)22
(km/h)25
(km/h)10
(km/h)22
(km/h)12
(km/h)26
(km/h)16
(km/h)26
(km/h)12
(km/h)20
(km/h)10
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction W E SW SSE E E NE ENE NNE NE SSW SE SSE SE Relative humidity 38% 38% 58% 57% 67% 63% 67% 65% 69% 60% 67% 66% 71% 72% Dew point 12°C 14°C 16°C 17°C 17°C 19°C 18°C 20°C 20°C 22°C 19°C 21°C 18°C 19°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Pipeclay Rain Forecast
Pipeclay 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
17
LOW18
19
MEDIUM20
HIGH21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Pipeclay Rain Forecast
Pipeclay 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020236676656648105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Pipeclay Rain Forecast
Pipeclay 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
LOW9
LOW10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
MEDIUM15
MEDIUM16
17
LOW18
19
MEDIUM20
HIGH21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
LOW26
LOW27
LOW28
LOW29
LOW30
31
LOWJan 1
MEDIUM2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Pipeclay Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0211.3 °C 28.2 °C 0.6 mmTuesday
Dec 037.5 °C 26.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 047.6 °C 29.6 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 057.8 °C 30 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0614 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Pipeclay minimum temp history (31.4392°S, 152.5527°E, 18m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 30.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 7.5° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 43.3 24/12/2005 Coldest on record 8.0 21/12/2010 Hottest this year 39.7° 12/02/2019 Coldest this year -3.5° 31/05/2019 Long term average 26.7° Long term average 16.9° Average this month 27.9° Average this month 11.1° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 29.4° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 15.1° 2006 Pipeclay rainfall history (31.4392°S, 152.5527°E, 18m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 2.8mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 3.4mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 110.1mm 12.5 days Wettest December on record 247.6mm 2005 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Pipeclay Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 1465.2mm 143.7 day(s) Total For 2019 481.2mm 106.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 1038.6mm 130.0 day(s) Wettest Day 32.0mm Mar10 Lowest Temperature -3.5°C May31 Highest Temperature 39.7°C Feb12 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Pipeclay Climatology
Pipeclay Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.7 27.6 26.4 24.3 21.6 19.5 18.8 20.2 22.6 24.1 25.2 26.7 23.7 Mean Min (°C) 18.4 18.4 17.0 13.9 10.4 8.2 6.6 6.8 9.4 11.9 15.2 16.9 12.8 Mean Rain (mm) 159.3 187.6 177.0 141.5 115.6 139.3 67.2 71.1 64.7 74.6 157.2 110.1 1468.6 Mean Rain Days 12.2 13.4 15.3 13.5 13.0 11.4 10.5 8.5 9.3 10.2 13.9 12.5 137.0