Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Monaro Alpine, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, Southern Slopes and Eastern Riverina fire areas
Issued at 02:39 PM EDT on Monday 09 December 2019
Weather Situation
Hot dry northwesterly winds across New South Wales on Tuesday ahead of a cooler southwest to southerly change spreading through the west and southeast during the day.
For Tuesday 10 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Southern Ranges and Central Ranges
Very High Fire Danger for the following areas:
Monaro Alpine, Southern Slopes and Eastern Riverina
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Tuesday.
Forecast
Paling Yards (34.1289°S, 149.768°E, 907m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY17° 35° late shower Chance of rain: 50% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:12am EDT 5:41am EDT 8:05pm EDT 8:34pm EDT NOW18.7° Feels Like: 19.0° Relative Humidity: 91% Dew: 17.3° Wind: NNW 11km/h Gust: 15km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Paling YardsNow20.6°cFeels Like:19.3°Wind:W 11km/hGusts:11km/hHumidity:61%17°Min35°MaxToday in Paling YardsHot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the north in the afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming W/NW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then shifting E/SE in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 35 to 40.Tomorrow12°Min24°MaxPartly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h tending NW/SW in the early afternoon then tending NE/SE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 10 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 37. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the north in the afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming W/NW 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then shifting E/SE in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 35 to 40.
Forecast for Paling Yards (34.1289°S, 149.768°E, 907m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 17° 12° 12° 12° 12° 13° 13° Maximum 35° 24° 24° 19° 25° 25° 25° Chance of rain 50% 40% 60% 40% 30% 30% 50% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 13
(km/h)16
(km/h)11
(km/h)11
(km/h)5
(km/h)16
(km/h)8
(km/h)11
(km/h)9
(km/h)16
(km/h)14
(km/h)17
(km/h)4
(km/h)-
(km/h)Wind direction NW W E E N WSW ENE ENE NW WNW WNW W WNW - Relative humidity 28% 14% 69% 35% 65% 28% 74% 46% 57% 31% 46% 23% 51% n/a Dew point 9°C 4°C 10°C 8°C 11°C 5°C 9°C 7°C 10°C 7°C 8°C 3°C 8°C n/a -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Paling Yards Rain Forecast
Paling Yards 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT10
11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
15
16
LOW17
18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
MEDIUM22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
LOW6
LOW7
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Paling Yards Rain Forecast
Paling Yards 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020236664754516105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Paling Yards Rain Forecast
Paling Yards 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT10
11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
15
16
LOW17
18
LOW19
LOW20
LOW21
MEDIUM22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
29
LOW30
LOW31
MEDIUMJan 1
LOW2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
LOW5
LOW6
LOW7
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 9Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Paling Yards Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Thursday
Dec 059.5 °C 28.0 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0612.0 °C 27.0 °C 0.0 mmSaturday
Dec 074.5 °C 28.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Dec 086.5 °C 25.5 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Dec 0914.0 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Paling Yards minimum temp history (34.1289°S, 149.768°E, 907m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 28.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 4.5° 01/12/2019 Hottest on record 38.0 01/12/1982 Coldest on record -0.7 04/12/1987 Hottest this year 39.0° 17/01/2019 Coldest this year -7.0° 11/08/2019 Long term average 24.3° Long term average 9.9° Average this month 23.2° Average this month 8.1° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.9° 1979 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 7.1° 1964 Paling Yards rainfall history (34.1289°S, 149.768°E, 907m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 1.0mm 01/12/2019 Total This Month 1.8mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 63.5mm 8.6 days Wettest December on record 189.4mm 1979 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Paling Yards Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 778.7mm 117.0 day(s) Total For 2019 576.5mm 109.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 553.7mm 121.0 day(s) Wettest Day 62.0mm Feb 4 Lowest Temperature -7.0°C Aug11 Highest Temperature 39.0°C Jan17 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Paling Yards Climatology
Paling Yards Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 26.1 24.9 22.5 18.7 14.5 11.2 10.3 11.8 15.0 18.4 21.5 24.3 18.2 Mean Min (°C) 12.0 12.0 9.9 6.3 3.3 1.8 0.6 1.3 3.2 5.4 7.8 9.9 6.1 Mean Rain (mm) 70.5 67.7 65.4 55.3 54.5 76.2 67.1 64.5 60.4 68.4 65.2 63.5 778.6 Mean Rain Days 8.9 9.0 9.0 8.5 9.5 12.1 12.0 10.9 10.0 9.6 8.9 8.6 112.7