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Forecast

Obx Creek (29.8°S, 152.7333°E, 98m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Hazy 19° 37°
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:14am EDT 5:41am EDT 7:41pm EDT 8:08pm EDT
    NOW
    23.7° Feels Like: 27.1°
    Relative Humidity: 85%
    Dew: 21.0°
    Wind: NE 4km/h
    Gust: 6km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Obx Creek
    Now
    23.6°c
    Feels Like:
    23.4°
    Wind:
    NNE 20km/h
    Gusts:
    24km/h
    Humidity:
    81%
    Hazy
     
    19°
    Min
    37°
    Max
    Today in Obx Creek
    Hot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the south in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm inland in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching 33 to 38.
    Tomorrow
    Hazy
    18°
    Min
    31°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke haze. Slight chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds NW/NE 15 to 20 km/h tending NE/SE 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then tending N/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching 30 to 35.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Hot and mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the south in the late afternoon and evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Areas of smoke haze. The chance of a thunderstorm inland in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching 33 to 38.

    Forecast for Obx Creek (29.8°S, 152.7333°E, 98m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Hazy Hazy Late shower Possible shower Possible thunderstorm Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 19° 18° 18° 18° 17° 17° 17°
    Maximum 37° 31° 35° 28° 30° 32° 30°
    Chance of rain 50% 60% 60% 90% 80% 10% 60%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 11
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N ENE SE ESE E E S SE SW E NNW E SW ESE
    Relative humidity 80% 40% 81% 57% 84% 57% 92% 72% 90% 62% 82% 43% 76% 45%
    Dew point 23°C 21°C 22°C 20°C 23°C 23°C 22°C 21°C 21°C 21°C 21°C 18°C 20°C 16°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Obx Creek Rain Forecast


    Obx Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    LOW
    19
    HIGH
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    MEDIUM
    Jan 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    HIGH
    4
    HIGH
    5
    HIGH
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec 9

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Obx Creek Rain Forecast


    Obx Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    2019
    2020
    4
    5
    6
    5
    7
    7
    6
    3
    6
    6
    7
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Obx Creek Rain Forecast


    Obx Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    HIGH
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    LOW
    19
    HIGH
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    MEDIUM
    Jan 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    HIGH
    4
    HIGH
    5
    HIGH
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec 9

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 27 December to 31 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 December to 31 December, 31 December to 4 January, and 9 January to 13 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 6 January to 10 January, and 12 January to 16 January.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Obx Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Dec 05
    11.8 °C 33.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Dec 06
    11.9 °C 39.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Dec 07
    14.4 °C 30.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Dec 08
    13.9 °C 29.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Dec 09
    17.7 °C 29 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Obx Creek minimum temp history (29.8°S, 152.7333°E, 98m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 39.5° 06/12/2019 Coldest this month 11.8° 05/12/2019
    Hottest on record 41.3 31/12/2016 Coldest on record 8.6 07/12/2013
    Hottest this year 41.3° 13/02/2019 Coldest this year -1.5° 31/05/2019
    Long term average 28.9° Long term average 17.5°
    Average this month 31.8° Average this month 14.7°
    Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 32.1° 2016 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 15.6° 2006
    Obx Creek rainfall history (29.8°S, 152.7333°E, 98m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 3.2mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 3.4mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 114.1mm 13.6 days Wettest December on record 295.0mm 2016
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Obx Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Dec 1161.9mm 141.9 day(s)
    Total For 2019 342.0mm 123.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 699.8mm 146.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 26.0mm Mar23
    Lowest Temperature -1.5°C May31
    Highest Temperature 41.3°C Feb13
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Obx Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 30.0 29.7 28.1 25.7 23.2 20.5 20.4 22.3 24.7 26.8 28.5 28.9 25.7
    Mean Min (°C) 19.0 18.8 17.5 13.7 9.1 7.1 5.3 6.1 9.8 12.5 16.1 17.5 12.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 131.1 155.1 178.9 86.6 78.8 88.6 33.2 65.7 48.7 64.0 117.1 114.1 1175.8
    Mean Rain Days 13.2 13.2 15.6 12.5 12.7 12.9 10.1 7.9 9.4 8.4 12.4 13.6 116.2