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Forecast

Mount Keira (34.4081°S, 150.8491°E, 194m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Showers 11° 17°
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 10-20mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:17am EST 6:43am EST 5:21pm EST 5:47pm EST
    NOW
    15.4° Feels Like: 14.1°
    Relative Humidity: 77%
    Dew: 11.4°
    Wind: NW 9km/h
    Gust: 11km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 9.4mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Mount Keira
    Now
    15.8°c
    Feels Like:
    15.8°
    Wind:
    SE 7km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    90%
    Showers
     
    11°
    Min
    17°
    Max
    Today in Mount Keira
    Cloudy. Patchy morning fog. Very high chance of showers, tending to rain in the south. Possible heavy falls in the south. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E 25 to 40 km/h shifting W/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 14 and 17.
    Tomorrow
    Rain
    12°
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers, most likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm along the coastal fringe at night. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 4 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 10 and 16.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. Patchy morning fog. Very high chance of showers, tending to rain in the south. Possible heavy falls in the south. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds E 25 to 40 km/h shifting W/SW 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures between 14 and 17.

    Forecast for Mount Keira (34.4081°S, 150.8491°E, 194m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Showers Rain Windy with showers Mostly sunny Cloudy Mostly sunny Possible shower
    Minimum 11° 12° 12° 11° 11° 12° 12°
    Maximum 17° 16° 15° 17° 19° 21° 19°
    Chance of rain 80% 90% 80% 10% 50% 20% 90%
    Likely amount 10-20mm 40-80mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm
    UV index Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 15
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    39
    (km/h)
    40
    (km/h)
    40
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    Wind direction S SE SSE S S SSW SSW E N NNE NW N WNW NE
    Relative humidity 95% 77% 75% 82% 66% 71% 65% 62% 68% 64% 67% 59% 66% 67%
    Dew point 12°C 12°C 11°C 11°C 8°C 9°C 8°C 9°C 9°C 12°C 11°C 12°C 10°C 12°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Mount Keira Rain Forecast


    Mount Keira 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    HIGH
    15
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 August to 26 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 5 September to 9 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Mount Keira Rain Forecast


    Mount Keira 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    9
    7
    8
    7
    8
    6
    10
    4
    6
    7
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Aug 5

    ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific show a slight decrease in the intensity of cooling compared to June, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.0 in July. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 4.2 in the same month, a swing into positive values compared to June. The current outlook suggests that cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial pacific through the end of winter and potentially reach La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring, with four of these indicating La Nina by Spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 54:41 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Two of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becoming established during the Austral spring, with the remaining four indicating a neutral phase. Of the four neutral models, including the BOM, three are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, with only the Canadian model trending positive. In terms of precipitation over Australia, the current short-term outlook favours above average rainfall across most of Australia over the next fortnight, with the exception of western TAS, far southern VIC, and northern QLD and the NT. These expected wetter than average conditions will likely be due to the passage of moisture troughs inland and fronts, in part driven by the positive SAM. Models are then indicating a continued trend to above average rainfall for inland SA, all but the far north of the NT, western, central and southern QLD, northern and western NSW and parts of southern WA. Parts of WA’s Pilbara and Kimberley however are showing signs of below average rainfall into early spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Mount Keira Rain Forecast


    Mount Keira 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    HIGH
    15
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    LOW
    18
    LOW
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    30
    31
    Sep 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 8

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 August to 31 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 22 August to 26 August, 1 September to 5 September, and 5 September to 9 September.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Mount Keira Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Tuesday
    Aug 04
    10.2 °C 21.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Aug 05
    7.2 °C 15.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Aug 06
    8.1 °C 14.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Aug 07
    9.5 °C 14.1 °C
    1.0 mm
    Saturday
    Aug 08
    10.7 °C 16.3 °C
    72.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Mount Keira minimum temp history (34.4081°S, 150.8491°E, 194m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 21.8° 03/08/2020 Coldest this month 7.2° 05/08/2020
    Hottest on record 26.7 23/08/2012 Coldest on record 5.7 19/08/2008
    Hottest this year 39.6° 23/01/2020 Coldest this year 7.2° 05/08/2020
    Long term average 18.0° Long term average 10.6°
    Average this month 17.4° Average this month 9.2°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.9° 2009 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 8.8° 2008
    Mount Keira rainfall history (34.4081°S, 150.8491°E, 194m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 72.2mm 08/08/2020 Total This Month 73.2mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 98.3mm 8.3 days Wettest August on record 682.0mm 1998
    Driest on record 2.4mm 2005
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Mount Keira Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 869.8mm 86.8 day(s)
    Total For 2020 1063.6mm 85.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 558.4mm 68.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 137.4mm Feb10
    Lowest Temperature 7.2°C Aug 5
    Highest Temperature 39.6°C Jan23
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Mount Keira Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 24.9 24.8 24.0 22.1 19.8 17.7 16.9 18.0 20.1 21.7 22.3 24.0 21.3
    Mean Min (°C) 19.1 19.2 18.2 15.6 13.1 11.2 10.1 10.6 12.5 14.0 15.8 17.5 14.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 83.2 140.0 133.0 118.7 85.6 129.7 81.3 98.3 57.3 75.9 102.8 76.5 1178.0
    Mean Rain Days 12.1 13.3 13.8 11.1 8.9 10.2 9.1 8.3 9.2 10.9 12.9 11.9 125.6