Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Minor Flood Warning For The Murrumbidgee River
Issued at 11:58 AM EST on Wednesday 04 August 2021
Flood Watch Number: 5
LEVELS NEAR MINOR EXPECTED ALONG PARTS OF THE TUMUT AND MURRUMBIDGEE RIVERS
Releases from Burrinjuck and Blowering Dams combined with local tributary inflows will cause flooding near minor levels along the Tumut and Murrumbidgee Rivers this week.
The Tumut River at Tumut is likely to remain below the minor flood level of 2.0 metres today and for the remainder of the week. Similarly, along the Murrumbidgee River at Gundagai river levels are expected to remain below the minor flood level of 6.10 metres for the rest of the week.
Levels along the Murrumbidgee River at Wagga Wagga are expected to remain below the minor flood level of 7.3 metres. The Murrumbidgee River at Narrandera is expected to exceed the minor flood level (6.7 metres) today. The Murrumbidgee River at Darlington Point is expected to reach the minor flood level later this week. The Murrumbidgee River at Hay may reach the minor flood level (6.5 metres) late next week, a more accurate forecast will be provided once upstream peaks have been observed.
Tumut River:
Levels below the minor flood level expected along the Tumut River.
The Tumut River at Tumut is likely to remain below the minor flood level of 2.00 metres for the rest of the week.
Murrumbidgee River downstream of Burrinjuck to Wagga Wagga:
Levels below the minor flood level are expected along the Murrumbidgee River downstream of Burrinjuck to Wagga Wagga.
The Murrumbidgee River at Gundagai is likely to remain around 5.80 metres during the week, below the minor flood level of 6.10 metres.
The Murrumbidgee River at Wagga Wagga will remain below the minor flood level (7.30 m) during the week.
Murrumbidgee River downstream of Wagga Wagga to Narrandera:
Minor flooding expected along the Murrumbidgee River downstream of Wagga Wagga to Narrandera.
The Murrumbidgee River at Narrandera may reach around 6.70 metres during Wednesday 4 August, with minor flooding.
Murrumbidgee River downstream of Narrandera to Darlington Point:
Minor flooding may occur along the Murrumbidgee River downstream of Narrandera to Darlington Point.
The Murrumbidgee River at Darlington Point may reach around 5.50 metres during Friday 6 August, with minor flooding.
Murrumbidgee River downstream of Darlington Point to Balranald Weir:
Minor flooding may occur along the Murrumbidgee River downstream of Darlington Point to Balranald Weir.
The Murrumbidgee River at Hay Town may reach the minor flood level (6.50 metres) around Friday 13 August 2021.
Flood Safety Advice:
In life threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately. If you require rescue, assistance to evacuate or other emergency help, ring NSW SES on 132 500.
* Avoid drowning. Stay out of rising water, seek refuge in the highest available place.
* Prevent damage to your vehicle. Move it under cover, away from areas likely to flood.
* Avoid being swept away. Stay out of fast-flowing creeks and storm drains.
* Never drive, ride or walk through flood water. Flood water can be deceptive and dangerous.}
For more emergency information, advice, and access to the latest river heights and rainfall observations and forecasts:
* NSW SES: www.ses.nsw.gov.au
* RMS Live Traffic: www.livetraffic.com
* Latest River Heights and Rainfall Observations: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/southwest.shtml
* Latest NSW Warnings: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/
* Rainfall Forecasts: www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
* BOM NSW Twitter: www.twitter.com/BOM_NSW
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 12:00 pm EST on Thursday 05 August 2021.
Latest River Heights:
Tumut River at Tumut,1.79,Falling,11:00 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Gundagai,5.52,Rising,11:30 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Eringoarrah,6.31,Steady,11:00 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Wagga Wagga,6.41,Falling,11:30 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Narrandera,6.68,Rising,11:30 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Gogeldrie Weir,6.08,Rising,10:47 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Darlington Point,5.40,Rising,11:30 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Hay Weir Downstream,6.28,Rising,10:47 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Maude Weir Downstream,6.05,Rising,09:00 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Redbank Weir,5.58,Steady,10:47 AM WED 04/08/21
Murrumbidgee River at Balranald Weir Downstream,5.09,Steady,11:00 AM WED 04/08/21
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts.
Forecast
Molong (33.092°S, 148.8688°E, 530m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY
0° 6° Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:27am EST 6:53am EST 5:26pm EST 5:53pm EST NOW2.8° Feels Like: -6.8° Relative Humidity: 96% Dew: 2.2° Wind: W 41km/h Gust: 44km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.6mm Pressure: 1016.3hPa -
Today Weather
MolongNow8.5°cFeels Like:3.5°Wind:W 20km/hGusts:26km/hHumidity:82%
0°Min6°MaxToday in MolongPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the S, slight chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 900 metres. Winds W/SW 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 11 and 15.Tomorrow
3°Min7°MaxCloudy. Medium chance of showers in the S, near zero chance elsewhere. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h turning SW 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to around 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 13 and 17. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the S, slight chance elsewhere. Snow possible above 900 metres. Winds W/SW 25 to 35 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 11 and 15.
Forecast for Molong (33.092°S, 148.8688°E, 530m AMSL) Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Summary 
Minimum 0° 3° 2° 1° 0° 0° 1° Maximum 6° 7° 9° 10° 11° 12° 14° Chance of rain 70% 60% 20% 20% 20% 40% 40% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - Frost risk High Moderate Moderate High High High High 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 35
(km/h)32
(km/h)26
(km/h)26
(km/h)20
(km/h)23
(km/h)19
(km/h)21
(km/h)15
(km/h)16
(km/h)18
(km/h)18
(km/h)20
(km/h)23
(km/h)Wind direction WSW WSW WSW WSW SW SW SW WSW ESE E ENE NNE N NNW Relative humidity 95% 94% 98% 89% 95% 79% 90% 77% 88% 67% 91% 67% 90% 65% Dew point 1°C 4°C 5°C 4°C 5°C 5°C 5°C 5°C 4°C 4°C 4°C 5°C 6°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Molong Rain Forecast
Molong 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
LOW5
6
7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
15
16
MEDIUM17
LOW18
LOW19
20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
26
HIGH27
LOW28
29
30
LOW31
Sep 1
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 2 September to 6 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 August to 26 August, 3 September to 7 September, and 7 September to 11 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 18 August to 22 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Molong Rain Forecast
Molong 12-month Rainfall ForecastAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun20212022888867107658105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jul 13
ENSO status: Neutral, however two models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again from September. IOD status: Neutral, although it was negative for six weeks between mid-May and late-June SAM status: Negative. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, prompting the US Climate Prediction Centre to issue a La Niña Watch this week. Two models forecast temperatures reaching the La Niña threshold during September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although we saw six consecutive weeks below the negative IOD threshold between mid-May and late-June. The IOD index needs to stay below -0.4C for eight consecutive weeks to be officially declared as a negative IOD event. The IOD ducked back into neutral territory thanks to recent warming in the western Indian Ocean. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly values may enhance rainfallacross central and southern Australia. Three of the five models are forecasting the negative IOD to develop in winter, with another one indicating development in early spring. Most of the models suggest that the negative IOD will continue through until mid spring. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and southwestern TAS. The weekly negative IOD values may be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from southwestern TAS and WA. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Molong Rain Forecast
Molong 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
LOW5
6
7
8
9
10
11
LOW12
LOW13
LOW14
15
16
MEDIUM17
LOW18
LOW19
20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
MEDIUM25
26
HIGH27
LOW28
29
30
LOW31
Sep 1
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Aug 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 2 September to 6 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 August to 26 August, 3 September to 7 September, and 7 September to 11 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 14 August to 18 August, and 18 August to 22 August.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Molong Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Saturday
Jul 311.8 °C 16.0 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Aug 017.1 °C 13.2 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Aug 02-2.5 °C 12.3 °C 2.4 mmTuesday
Aug 035.4 °C 8.2 °C 8.2 mmWednesday
Aug 040.7 °C 3.6 °C 5.2 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Molong minimum temp history (33.092°S, 148.8688°E, 530m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 13.2° 01/08/2021 Coldest this month -2.5° 02/08/2021 Hottest on record 19.5 23/08/2009 Coldest on record -6.2 03/08/1999 Hottest this year 33.0° 24/01/2021 Coldest this year -5.6° 22/07/2021 Long term average 11.2° Long term average 0.8° Average this month 11.2° Average this month 3.5° Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 13.3° 2002 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. -0.9° 2002 Molong rainfall history (33.092°S, 148.8688°E, 530m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 8.2mm 03/08/2021 Total This Month 10.6mm
2.0 daysLong Term Average 82.7mm 15.6 days Wettest August on record 240.8mm 2010 Driest on record 9.4mm 2006 -
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Australia Radars
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Year to Date
Molong Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Aug 542.8mm 98.2 day(s) Total For 2021 830.6mm 95.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 686.6mm 98.0 day(s) Wettest Day 52.6mm Mar14 Lowest Temperature -5.6°C Jul22 Highest Temperature 33.0°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Molong Climatology
Molong Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 27.5 26.0 22.9 18.9 14.0 10.8 9.9 11.2 14.9 18.4 21.9 24.9 18.5 Mean Min (°C) 13.0 12.5 9.9 5.8 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.8 3.2 5.7 8.4 10.6 6.2 Mean Rain (mm) 64.1 76.3 75.5 43.6 49.8 79.3 71.5 82.7 78.0 71.7 80.0 86.3 848.9 Mean Rain Days 8.4 7.9 8.5 7.4 12.7 18.8 18.9 15.6 11.3 9.2 9.7 8.8 137.4
