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Forecast

Michelago (35.7094°S, 149.1653°E, 685m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Showers easing 12°
    showers easing
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 5-10mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:36am EST 7:03am EST 5:18pm EST 5:45pm EST
    NOW
    6.8° Feels Like: -0.3°
    Relative Humidity: 83%
    Dew: 4.2°
    Wind: NW 30km/h
    Gust: 37km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 1.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Michelago
    Now
    9.0°c
    Feels Like:
    6.2°
    Wind:
    N 13km/h
    Gusts:
    17km/h
    Humidity:
    99%
    Showers easing
     
    Min
    12°
    Max
    Today in Michelago
    Partly cloudy. Very high chance of rain about the ranges, slight chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Deep snow accumulation possible. The chance of a thunderstorm in the W later this evening. Possible hail about the ranges later this evening. Winds NW 30 to 45 km/h turning W 25 to 40 km/h in the evening.
    Tomorrow
    Frost then sunny
    Min
    13°
    Max
    Mostly sunny. Areas of morning frost. Medium chance of snow showers about the ranges, most likely in the early morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Snow possible above 800 metres. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon then turning NW 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of rain about the ranges, slight chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1000 metres. Deep snow accumulation possible. The chance of a thunderstorm in the W later this evening. Possible hail about the ranges later this evening. Winds NW 30 to 45 km/h turning W 25 to 40 km/h in the evening.

    Forecast for Michelago (35.7094°S, 149.1653°E, 685m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Showers easing Frost then sunny Frost then sunny Possible shower Showers easing Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum -3°
    Maximum 12° 13° 13° 16° 15° 14° 12°
    Chance of rain 90% 5% 40% 70% 40% 70% 10%
    Likely amount 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Slight High Severe Moderate Nil Moderate Moderate
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 17
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    1
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNW NNW WNW WNW NNE N NNW NW WNW WNW NNW NNW NW WNW
    Relative humidity 59% 96% 70% 43% 83% 44% 71% 54% 86% 55% 87% 56% 82% 52%
    Dew point 4°C 9°C 1°C 0°C 0°C 0°C 4°C 6°C 9°C 5°C 5°C 5°C 4°C 2°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Michelago Rain Forecast


    Michelago 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    HIGH
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul28

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 August to 21 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 August to 7 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 15 August to 19 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Michelago Rain Forecast


    Michelago 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2021
    2022
    7
    6
    6
    7
    7
    6
    7
    10
    6
    4
    5
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 13

    ENSO status: Neutral, however two models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again from September. IOD status: Neutral, although it was negative for six weeks between mid-May and late-June SAM status: Negative. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, prompting the US Climate Prediction Centre to issue a La Niña Watch this week. Two models forecast temperatures reaching the La Niña threshold during September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although we saw six consecutive weeks below the negative IOD threshold between mid-May and late-June. The IOD index needs to stay below -0.4C for eight consecutive weeks to be officially declared as a negative IOD event. The IOD ducked back into neutral territory thanks to recent warming in the western Indian Ocean. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly values may enhance rainfallacross central and southern Australia. Three of the five models are forecasting the negative IOD to develop in winter, with another one indicating development in early spring. Most of the models suggest that the negative IOD will continue through until mid spring. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and southwestern TAS. The weekly negative IOD values may be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from southwestern TAS and WA. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Michelago Rain Forecast


    Michelago 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    HIGH
    Aug 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul28

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 August to 21 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 August to 7 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 15 August to 19 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Michelago Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Jul 24
    3.8 °C 11.2 °C
    5.2 mm
    Sunday
    Jul 25
    2.5 °C 9.0 °C
    9.6 mm
    Monday
    Jul 26
    3.4 °C 12.2 °C
    1.6 mm
    Tuesday
    Jul 27
    7.8 °C 15.0 °C
    0.4 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 28
    4.4 °C 13.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Michelago minimum temp history (35.7094°S, 149.1653°E, 685m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 15.3° 09/07/2021 Coldest this month -5.5° 22/07/2021
    Hottest on record 18.7 19/07/2016 Coldest on record -8.2 29/07/2011
    Hottest this year 37.0° 25/01/2021 Coldest this year -5.5° 22/07/2021
    Long term average 12.4° Long term average 0.0°
    Average this month 11.7° Average this month 1.3°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 13.3° 1999 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. -1.6° 1997
    Michelago rainfall history (35.7094°S, 149.1653°E, 685m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 15.2mm 17/07/2021 Total This Month 53.0mm
    14.0 days
    Long Term Average 38.6mm 10.7 days Wettest July on record 101.8mm 2005
    Driest on record 6.0mm 2018
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Michelago Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 347.5mm 55.6 day(s)
    Total For 2021 546.6mm 62.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 458.2mm 62.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 58.4mm Mar23
    Lowest Temperature -5.5°C Jul22
    Highest Temperature 37.0°C Jan25
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Michelago Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.7 28.0 25.2 21.0 16.6 13.1 12.4 14.0 17.6 21.0 24.4 27.3 20.9
    Mean Min (°C) 14.4 14.2 11.3 6.9 2.8 1.2 0.0 0.9 3.7 6.5 9.9 12.4 7.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 55.1 79.4 58.3 34.5 26.6 55.0 38.6 48.2 57.3 53.9 75.1 66.8 637.2
    Mean Rain Days 7.8 7.3 7.3 6.0 6.3 10.2 10.7 9.2 8.2 9.0 9.3 8.2 99.1