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Forecast

Marlo Merrican (31.2158°S, 152.6696°E, 54m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Sunny 25°
    Chance of rain: 70%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:14am EST 6:39am EST 5:11pm EST 5:37pm EST
    NOW
    17.4° Feels Like: 16.4°
    Relative Humidity: 68%
    Dew: 11.4°
    Wind: SE 7km/h
    Gust: 7km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1006.7hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Marlo Merrican
    Now
    19.2°c
    Feels Like:
    18.2°
    Wind:
    N 11km/h
    Gusts:
    15km/h
    Humidity:
    71%
    Sunny
     
    Min
    25°
    Max
    Today in Marlo Merrican
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers about higher ground, slight chance elsewhere. Winds NW 20 to 30 km/h.
    Tomorrow
    Clearing shower
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Slight chance of a shower in the early morning. Mostly sunny day. Winds W/NW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/SW before dawn then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 13 and 21.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers about higher ground, slight chance elsewhere. Winds NW 20 to 30 km/h.

    Forecast for Marlo Merrican (31.2158°S, 152.6696°E, 54m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Sunny Clearing shower Sunny Sunny Sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny
    Minimum 10°
    Maximum 25° 21° 20° 23° 29° 24° 23°
    Chance of rain 70% 5% 5% 5% 70% 70% 20%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Slight Nil Moderate Moderate Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 9
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNE N WSW SW WNW ENE N NE NNW NW WNW NE WNW W
    Relative humidity 54% 44% 60% 29% 50% 43% 54% 46% 57% 47% 81% 73% 66% 46%
    Dew point 5°C 12°C 7°C 1°C 2°C 7°C 4°C 10°C 12°C 16°C 13°C 19°C 11°C 11°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Marlo Merrican Rain Forecast


    Marlo Merrican 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    30
    31
    Aug 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    HIGH
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    HIGH
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul28

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 August to 21 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 August to 7 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 15 August to 19 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Marlo Merrican Rain Forecast


    Marlo Merrican 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2021
    2022
    8
    7
    7
    8
    6
    7
    6
    10
    6
    7
    7
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 13

    ENSO status: Neutral, however two models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again from September. IOD status: Neutral, although it was negative for six weeks between mid-May and late-June SAM status: Negative. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, prompting the US Climate Prediction Centre to issue a La Niña Watch this week. Two models forecast temperatures reaching the La Niña threshold during September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although we saw six consecutive weeks below the negative IOD threshold between mid-May and late-June. The IOD index needs to stay below -0.4C for eight consecutive weeks to be officially declared as a negative IOD event. The IOD ducked back into neutral territory thanks to recent warming in the western Indian Ocean. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly values may enhance rainfallacross central and southern Australia. Three of the five models are forecasting the negative IOD to develop in winter, with another one indicating development in early spring. Most of the models suggest that the negative IOD will continue through until mid spring. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and southwestern TAS. The weekly negative IOD values may be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from southwestern TAS and WA. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Marlo Merrican Rain Forecast


    Marlo Merrican 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    30
    31
    Aug 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    HIGH
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    HIGH
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul28

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 26 August to 30 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 August to 21 August, and 28 August to 1 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 August to 7 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 15 August to 19 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Marlo Merrican Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Jul 24
    3.3 °C 21.6 °C
    0.6 mm
    Sunday
    Jul 25
    4.4 °C 18.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jul 26
    5.1 °C 21.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jul 27
    2.6 °C 21.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 28
    0.8 °C 26.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Marlo Merrican minimum temp history (31.2158°S, 152.6696°E, 54m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 26.6° 28/07/2021 Coldest this month 0.2° 20/07/2021
    Hottest on record 27.8 22/07/2016 Coldest on record -3.6 19/07/2007
    Hottest this year 34.0° 15/01/2021 Coldest this year 0.2° 20/07/2021
    Long term average 20.1° Long term average 5.0°
    Average this month 19.5° Average this month 5.7°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 21.0° 2014 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 1.8° 2002
    Marlo Merrican rainfall history (31.2158°S, 152.6696°E, 54m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 10.2mm 16/07/2021 Total This Month 29.4mm
    9.0 days
    Long Term Average 32.2mm 9.6 days Wettest July on record 54.0mm 2006
    Driest on record 0.0mm 2002
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Marlo Merrican Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 759.4mm 91.9 day(s)
    Total For 2021 1379.4mm 101.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 881.2mm 89.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 225.8mm Mar19
    Lowest Temperature 0.2°C Jul20
    Highest Temperature 34.0°C Jan15
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Marlo Merrican Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.6 28.8 27.4 25.4 22.5 20.1 20.1 21.7 24.5 25.8 27.0 28.4 25.1
    Mean Min (°C) 17.9 18.0 16.5 13.0 8.7 6.9 5.0 5.1 8.1 11.1 14.3 16.3 11.7
    Mean Rain (mm) 112.0 162.3 199.5 69.0 62.3 122.1 32.2 49.8 39.7 82.4 101.4 112.4 1099.8
    Mean Rain Days 13.3 14.8 16.0 13.4 11.4 13.4 9.6 7.4 8.7 10.9 12.8 14.1 144.0