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Forecast

Manly (33.7971°S, 151.288°E, 0m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Windy with showers 15° 19°
    windy with showers
    Chance of rain: 90%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:44am EDT 6:10am EDT 7:11pm EDT 7:37pm EDT
    NOW
    16.2° Feels Like: 8.8°
    Relative Humidity: 75%
    Dew: 11.8°
    Wind: S 41km/h
    Gust: 52km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1015.5hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Manly
    Now
    15.4°c
    Feels Like:
    6.7°
    Wind:
    S 48km/h
    Gusts:
    56km/h
    Humidity:
    81%
    Windy with showers
     
    15°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Today in Manly
    Mostly sunny morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Very high chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, mainly in the W this afternoon. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h tending S/SE 30 to 50 km/h in the middle of the day then turning SW 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    12°
    Min
    19°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. Winds SW 20 to 30 km/h turning S 25 to 35 km/h in the morning then tending S/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Very high chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, mainly in the W this afternoon. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h tending S/SE 30 to 50 km/h in the middle of the day then turning SW 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening.

    Forecast for Manly (33.7971°S, 151.288°E, 0m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Windy with showers Showers Showers Possible shower Late shower Showers easing Showers
    Minimum 15° 12° 16° 15° 15° 16° 14°
    Maximum 19° 19° 20° 21° 23° 18° 18°
    Chance of rain 90% 90% 90% 30% 90% 90% 90%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm < 1mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index High High Very High High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 12
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WSW S WSW S ESE SE SW E N ENE SSW S SSW S
    Relative humidity 68% 80% 76% 73% 79% 75% 77% 72% 83% 76% 71% 65% 71% 62%
    Dew point 12°C 14°C 11°C 14°C 15°C 16°C 14°C 16°C 15°C 19°C 12°C 11°C 10°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Manly Rain Forecast


    Manly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    28
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    MEDIUM
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    HIGH
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    HIGH
    10
    HIGH
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 8 November to 12 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 8 November to 12 November, and 14 November to 18 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 November to 5 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 20 November to 24 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Manly Rain Forecast


    Manly 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2021
    2022
    6
    8
    8
    6
    8
    6
    8
    6
    7
    6
    5
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 13

    ENSO status: Neutral, however six of seven models suggest La Niña thresholds will be met again between November and January. IOD status: Negative, neutral levels predicted from late spring. SAM status: Near neutral, forecast to be mostly positive from October to December. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, Over the past few months, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have been getting abnormally cool. This oceanic cooling has also been accompanied by a response in the atmosphere, which has included trade winds strengthening over the central and western Pacific Ocean in the last few weeks. Both the atmosphere and the ocean are now showing clear signs of being in a La Niña-like pattern and a number of forecast models suggest that this trend will continue in the months ahead. All seven climate models predict La Nina Thresholds to be met in November, while six of the seven suggest it will last through to January and four toFebruary. La Niña typically brings above average rainfall in northern and eastern Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently weakly negative, however climate models predict the return to neutral phase by late spring. A negative IOD generates above average rain to southern and eastern Australia. As such, average to above average rainfall is predicted across much of the country this winter and the remainder of spring.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Past 5 Days

    Manly Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Oct 15
    13.1 °C 22.1 °C
    10.0 mm
    Saturday
    Oct 16
    12.6 °C 23.3 °C
    0.8 mm
    Sunday
    Oct 17
    12.5 °C 23.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Oct 18
    12.3 °C 25.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 19
    14.3 °C 24.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  13. Long range rainfall forecast

    Manly Rain Forecast


    Manly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    HIGH
    20
    HIGH
    21
    HIGH
    22
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    28
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    MEDIUM
    31
    MEDIUM
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    HIGH
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    MEDIUM
    8
    LOW
    9
    HIGH
    10
    HIGH
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    HIGH
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 8 November to 12 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 8 November to 12 November, and 14 November to 18 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 November to 5 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 20 November to 24 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Manly minimum temp history (33.7971°S, 151.288°E, 0m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 31.0° 07/10/2021 Coldest this month 10.3° 11/10/2021
    Hottest on record 38.2 13/10/2004 Coldest on record 5.7 06/10/1927
    Hottest this year 37.1° 26/01/2021 Coldest this year 5.2° 22/07/2021
    Long term average 22.2° Long term average 13.6°
    Average this month 23.7° Average this month 13.2°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 26.2° 1988 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 10.4° 1905
    Manly rainfall history (33.7971°S, 151.288°E, 0m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 14.4mm 11/10/2021 Total This Month 48.8mm
    8.0 days
    Long Term Average 76.8mm 11.6 days Wettest October on record 284.9mm 1987
    Driest on record 0.6mm 1988
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Manly Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 1051.4mm 120.7 day(s)
    Total For 2021 1014.6mm 116.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 1264.2mm 123.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 110.4mm Mar21
    Lowest Temperature 5.2°C Jul22
    Highest Temperature 37.1°C Jan26
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Manly Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.0 25.8 24.8 22.5 19.5 17.0 16.4 17.9 20.1 22.2 23.7 25.3 21.7
    Mean Min (°C) 18.8 18.9 17.6 14.7 11.6 9.3 8.1 9.0 11.2 13.6 15.7 17.6 13.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 101.3 119.4 133.5 125.9 117.2 133.1 96.1 80.2 67.9 76.8 83.8 77.4 1213.7
    Mean Rain Days 12.2 12.5 13.8 12.8 13.0 12.8 11.1 10.3 10.6 11.6 11.6 11.5 143.8