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Forecast

Manildra (33.1866°S, 148.6963°E, 420m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Showers easing 12°
    showers easing
    Chance of rain: 60%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:31am EST 6:57am EST 5:30pm EST 5:56pm EST
    NOW
    11.6° Feels Like: 8.1°
    Relative Humidity: 83%
    Dew: 8.8°
    Wind: W 17km/h
    Gust: 20km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.8mm
    Pressure: 1011.4hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Manildra
    Now
    7.1°c
    Feels Like:
    3.9°
    Wind:
    N 13km/h
    Gusts:
    15km/h
    Humidity:
    99%
    Showers easing
     
    Min
    12°
    Max
    Today in Manildra
    Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers on the S slopes, high chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm on the N slopes in the morning. Winds N/NE 15 to 20 km/h shifting W 20 to 30 km/h before dawn. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 17.
    Tomorrow
    Showers
    Min
    11°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers on the S slopes, slight chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 900 metres. Winds W 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to around 3 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 15.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Very high chance of showers on the S slopes, high chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm on the N slopes in the morning. Winds N/NE 15 to 20 km/h shifting W 20 to 30 km/h before dawn. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 17.

    Forecast for Manildra (33.1866°S, 148.6963°E, 420m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Showers easing Showers Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum
    Maximum 12° 11° 12° 14° 13° 14° 14°
    Chance of rain 60% 50% 30% 30% 20% 5% 30%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Slight Slight Slight Slight Moderate Slight
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 17
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W W W WSW WSW WSW SW SW SSW SW SSW SW SSW WSW
    Relative humidity 97% 66% 94% 75% 99% 77% 96% 69% 92% 68% 87% 62% 84% 56%
    Dew point 9°C 5°C 6°C 6°C 9°C 7°C 9°C 7°C 8°C 6°C 7°C 6°C 7°C 5°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Manildra Rain Forecast


    Manildra 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    HIGH
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 2

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and New Zealand.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 August to 12 August, 13 August to 17 August, and 18 August to 22 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 24 August to 28 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Manildra Rain Forecast


    Manildra 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2021
    2022
    8
    8
    8
    8
    6
    7
    10
    7
    6
    5
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 13

    ENSO status: Neutral, however two models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again from September. IOD status: Neutral, although it was negative for six weeks between mid-May and late-June SAM status: Negative. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, prompting the US Climate Prediction Centre to issue a La Niña Watch this week. Two models forecast temperatures reaching the La Niña threshold during September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although we saw six consecutive weeks below the negative IOD threshold between mid-May and late-June. The IOD index needs to stay below -0.4C for eight consecutive weeks to be officially declared as a negative IOD event. The IOD ducked back into neutral territory thanks to recent warming in the western Indian Ocean. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly values may enhance rainfallacross central and southern Australia. Three of the five models are forecasting the negative IOD to develop in winter, with another one indicating development in early spring. Most of the models suggest that the negative IOD will continue through until mid spring. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and southwestern TAS. The weekly negative IOD values may be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from southwestern TAS and WA. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Manildra Rain Forecast


    Manildra 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    LOW
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    HIGH
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Aug 2

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and New Zealand.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 August to 12 August, 13 August to 17 August, and 18 August to 22 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 24 August to 28 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Manildra Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Jul 29
    0.5 °C 11.7 °C
    2.2 mm
    Friday
    Jul 30
    -2.1 °C 15.4 °C
    0.2 mm
    Saturday
    Jul 31
    4.6 °C 21.6 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Aug 01
    10.5 °C 15.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Aug 02
    -1.0 °C 17.7 °C
    0.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Manildra minimum temp history (33.1866°S, 148.6963°E, 420m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 17.2° 02/08/2021 Coldest this month -1.0° 02/08/2021
    Hottest on record 25.0 30/08/2007 Coldest on record -6.0 03/08/1999
    Hottest this year 38.7° 24/01/2021 Coldest this year -3.6° 29/05/2021
    Long term average 16.0° Long term average 2.2°
    Average this month 16.3° Average this month 4.8°
    Hottest August On Record Avg. max. temp. 18.2° 2002 Coldest August on record Avg. min. temp. 0.6° 2012
    Manildra rainfall history (33.1866°S, 148.6963°E, 420m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.4mm 02/08/2021 Total This Month 0.4mm
    1.0 days
    Long Term Average 43.6mm 10.7 days Wettest August on record 89.2mm 1973
    Driest on record 9.6mm 2006
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Manildra Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Aug 399.6mm 67.0 day(s)
    Total For 2021 473.4mm 63.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 538.8mm 72.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 52.0mm Jan 3
    Lowest Temperature -3.6°C May29
    Highest Temperature 38.7°C Jan24
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Manildra Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 33.8 32.0 28.7 24.2 19.0 15.1 14.4 16.0 20.2 24.4 28.4 31.2 23.9
    Mean Min (°C) 17.8 17.2 14.1 9.5 5.2 3.7 2.3 2.2 4.5 7.8 12.1 14.7 9.2
    Mean Rain (mm) 63.3 58.8 54.8 33.2 45.6 53.2 47.1 43.6 43.0 51.8 58.2 52.3 611.7
    Mean Rain Days 6.5 6.4 5.7 5.0 7.7 12.0 13.0 10.7 7.4 7.9 6.8 6.5 96.4