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Forecast

Lower Pappinbarra (31.4182°S, 152.5876°E, 53m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Sunny 16° 31°
    Chance of rain: 40%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:43am EDT 6:08am EDT 7:01pm EDT 7:25pm EDT
    NOW
    29.3° Feels Like: 31.5°
    Relative Humidity: 52%
    Dew: 18.4°
    Wind: WNW 4km/h
    Gust: 9km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1005.5hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Lower Pappinbarra
    Now
    31.1°c
    Feels Like:
    31.8°
    Wind:
    N 9km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    44%
    Sunny
     
    16°
    Min
    31°
    Max
    Today in Lower Pappinbarra
    Partly cloudy. Areas of fog near the coast early this morning. Slight chance of a shower this afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon. Winds NW 25 to 40 km/h turning W 30 to 45 km/h in the early afternoon then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 33.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    11°
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Sunny. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 23 to 28.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog near the coast early this morning. Slight chance of a shower this afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon. Winds NW 25 to 40 km/h turning W 30 to 45 km/h in the early afternoon then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 33.

    Forecast for Lower Pappinbarra (31.4182°S, 152.5876°E, 53m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Sunny Sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 16° 11° 12° 10°
    Maximum 31° 23° 28° 22° 23° 24° 25°
    Chance of rain 40% 5% 5% 10% 5% 10% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 15
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N WNW WSW SE NNW ENE SW S SW SE WSW ESE NNE ENE
    Relative humidity 75% 41% 36% 36% 52% 36% 54% 52% 65% 55% 69% 60% 73% 55%
    Dew point 19°C 16°C 3°C 6°C 8°C 12°C 8°C 10°C 12°C 12°C 13°C 15°C 14°C 15°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Lower Pappinbarra Rain Forecast


    Lower Pappinbarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    13
    14
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Lower Pappinbarra Rain Forecast


    Lower Pappinbarra 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    6
    4
    4
    4
    6
    5
    7
    7
    6
    6
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Lower Pappinbarra Rain Forecast


    Lower Pappinbarra 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    LOW
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    MEDIUM
    12
    13
    14
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Lower Pappinbarra Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Oct 13
    12.2 °C 20.5 °C
    11.6 mm
    Monday
    Oct 14
    7.0 °C 22.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 15
    11.6 °C 25.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 16
    15.3 °C 28 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Oct 17
    18 °C -
    2.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Lower Pappinbarra minimum temp history (31.4182°S, 152.5876°E, 53m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 34.5° 07/10/2019 Coldest this month 5.9° 03/10/2019
    Hottest on record 39.4 20/10/2012 Coldest on record 2.0 17/10/2010
    Hottest this year 39.7° 12/02/2019 Coldest this year -3.5° 31/05/2019
    Long term average 24.1° Long term average 11.9°
    Average this month 23.3° Average this month 11.8°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.8° 2013 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 10.3° 2001
    Lower Pappinbarra rainfall history (31.4182°S, 152.5876°E, 53m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 15.8mm 01/10/2019 Total This Month 45.4mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 74.6mm 10.2 days Wettest October on record 275.1mm 2013
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Lower Pappinbarra Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 1197.9mm 117.3 day(s)
    Total For 2019 466.0mm 96.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 935.2mm 112.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 32.0mm Mar10
    Lowest Temperature -3.5°C May31
    Highest Temperature 39.7°C Feb12
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Lower Pappinbarra Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 27.7 27.6 26.4 24.3 21.6 19.5 18.8 20.2 22.6 24.1 25.2 26.7 23.7
    Mean Min (°C) 18.4 18.4 17.0 13.9 10.4 8.2 6.6 6.8 9.4 11.9 15.2 16.9 12.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 159.3 187.6 177.0 141.5 115.6 139.3 67.2 71.1 64.7 74.6 157.2 110.1 1468.6
    Mean Rain Days 12.2 13.4 15.3 13.5 13.0 11.4 10.5 8.5 9.3 10.2 13.9 12.5 137.0