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Forecast

Long Reef (33.7357°S, 151.2962°E, 37m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Windy 16° 26°
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: 0-1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:47am EDT 6:12am EDT 7:09pm EDT 7:35pm EDT
    NOW
    25.0° Feels Like: 23.4°
    Relative Humidity: 44%
    Dew: 12.2°
    Wind: W 11km/h
    Gust: 13km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Long Reef
    Now
    27.9°c
    Feels Like:
    23.8°
    Wind:
    W 22km/h
    Gusts:
    28km/h
    Humidity:
    34%
    Windy
     
    16°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Today in Long Reef
    Mostly sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    12°
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Sunny. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h before dawn then shifting N/NE 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

    Forecast for Long Reef (33.7357°S, 151.2962°E, 37m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Windy Sunny Sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 16° 12° 14° 12° 11° 13° 13°
    Maximum 26° 23° 27° 20° 22° 23° 25°
    Chance of rain 30% 0% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
    Likely amount 0-1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index - - - - - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 9
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W W WSW ENE NW WNW SW SE W ESE WNW E NNE ENE
    Relative humidity 84% 34% 46% 40% 42% 34% 50% 47% 63% 58% 72% 63% 64% 58%
    Dew point 17°C 9°C 5°C 9°C 7°C 10°C 5°C 8°C 10°C 13°C 13°C 16°C 13°C 16°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Long Reef Rain Forecast


    Long Reef 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    31
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 October to 29 October, 29 October to 2 November, and 7 November to 11 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 October to 19 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 October to 29 October, 30 October to 3 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Long Reef Rain Forecast


    Long Reef 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    6
    4
    6
    4
    6
    6
    7
    6
    7
    6
    5
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Long Reef Rain Forecast


    Long Reef 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    31
    Nov 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    HIGH
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    MEDIUM
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 October to 29 October, 29 October to 2 November, and 7 November to 11 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 October to 19 October. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 October to 29 October, 30 October to 3 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Long Reef Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Oct 13
    9.5 °C 18.1 °C
    1.2 mm
    Monday
    Oct 14
    11.2 °C 21.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 15
    13.7 °C 24.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 16
    15.0 °C 24 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Oct 17
    15 °C -
    0.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Long Reef minimum temp history (33.7357°S, 151.2962°E, 37m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 32.1° 04/10/2019 Coldest this month 9.3° 09/10/2019
    Hottest on record 36.3 13/10/2004 Coldest on record 6.0 17/10/2010
    Hottest this year 37.3° 31/01/2019 Coldest this year 2.8° 19/07/2019
    Long term average 22.8° Long term average 13.1°
    Average this month 21.3° Average this month 12.5°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.0° 2007 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 12.1° 2012
    Long Reef rainfall history (33.7357°S, 151.2962°E, 37m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 31.0mm 12/10/2019 Total This Month 52.4mm
    8.0 days
    Long Term Average 71.3mm 10.8 days Wettest October on record 284.8mm 2007
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Long Reef Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 979.5mm 117.6 day(s)
    Total For 2019 897.0mm 111.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 728.6mm 111.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 85.0mm Sep18
    Lowest Temperature 2.8°C Jul19
    Highest Temperature 37.3°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Long Reef Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.7 26.0 24.7 22.0 19.5 16.5 16.0 17.8 20.6 22.8 24.1 25.3 21.9
    Mean Min (°C) 18.4 18.2 16.9 13.8 10.7 8.9 7.6 8.4 11.1 13.1 15.4 16.6 13.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 100.4 138.5 136.4 124.1 60.4 154.9 67.7 58.6 67.2 71.3 106.2 85.7 1170.4
    Mean Rain Days 13.8 14.0 14.1 13.1 8.5 13.8 10.9 9.1 9.5 10.8 12.9 11.8 129.7