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Forecast

Lavender Bay (33.8431°S, 151.208°E, 28m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Clearing shower 16°
    clearing shower
    Chance of rain: 70%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:33am EST 7:01am EST 4:59pm EST 5:26pm EST
    NOW
    9.9° Feels Like: 4.8°
    Relative Humidity: 70%
    Dew: 4.7°
    Wind: W 20km/h
    Gust: 20km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 1.0mm
    Pressure: 1019.3hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Lavender Bay
    Now
    9.2°c
    Feels Like:
    4.9°
    Wind:
    SW 17km/h
    Gusts:
    20km/h
    Humidity:
    78%
    Clearing shower
     
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Today in Lavender Bay
    Medium chance of showers, clearing later this morning. Sunny afternoon. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h turning SW 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning then tending W 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    Min
    18°
    Max
    Sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h turning SW during the morning.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Medium chance of showers, clearing later this morning. Sunny afternoon. Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h turning SW 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning then tending W 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

    Forecast for Lavender Bay (33.8431°S, 151.208°E, 28m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Clearing shower Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 10°
    Maximum 16° 18° 17° 17° 17° 18° 19°
    Chance of rain 70% 5% 5% 70% 40% 30% 50%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low Low - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 19
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WSW SW WSW SW WSW SSW WSW SSW SW SSE WNW NE WNW ENE
    Relative humidity 69% 38% 66% 42% 70% 50% 73% 50% 80% 61% 84% 58% 75% 52%
    Dew point 5°C 1°C 4°C 4°C 5°C 5°C 5°C 6°C 8°C 8°C 8°C 9°C 7°C 8°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Lavender Bay Rain Forecast


    Lavender Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    HIGH
    28
    HIGH
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Aug 1
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 30 July to 3 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 July to 17 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 6 August to 10 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 31 July to 4 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Lavender Bay Rain Forecast


    Lavender Bay 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    2020
    2021
    7
    8
    9
    7
    7
    9
    10
    8
    5
    7
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Lavender Bay Rain Forecast


    Lavender Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    MEDIUM
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    18
    LOW
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    HIGH
    28
    HIGH
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Aug 1
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul 3

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 July to 13 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 30 July to 3 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 July to 17 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 6 August to 10 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 31 July to 4 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Lavender Bay Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jun 29
    9.4 °C 16.5 °C
    6.8 mm
    Tuesday
    Jun 30
    8.5 °C 17.7 °C
    1.2 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 01
    8.3 °C 22.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 02
    11.1 °C 23.0 °C
    0.2 mm
    Friday
    Jul 03
    11.0 °C 18.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Lavender Bay minimum temp history (33.8431°S, 151.208°E, 28m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 23.0° 02/07/2020 Coldest this month 8.3° 01/07/2020
    Hottest on record 25.9 24/07/1990 Coldest on record 2.2 08/07/1861
    Hottest this year 41.3° 23/01/2020 Coldest this year 7.2° 05/06/2020
    Long term average 16.4° Long term average 8.1°
    Average this month 20.0° Average this month 10.1°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 19.5° 2013 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 5.5° 1895
    Lavender Bay rainfall history (33.8431°S, 151.208°E, 28m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.2mm 02/07/2020 Total This Month 0.2mm
    1.0 days
    Long Term Average 97.1mm 11.3 days Wettest July on record 336.1mm 1950
    Driest on record 1.8mm 1970
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Lavender Bay Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 827.9mm 88.4 day(s)
    Total For 2020 889.2mm 94.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 560.6mm 63.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 176.0mm Feb10
    Lowest Temperature 7.2°C Jun 5
    Highest Temperature 41.3°C Jan23
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Lavender Bay Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.0 25.8 24.8 22.5 19.5 17.0 16.4 17.9 20.1 22.2 23.7 25.2 21.7
    Mean Min (°C) 18.7 18.8 17.6 14.7 11.6 9.3 8.1 9.0 11.1 13.6 15.7 17.5 13.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 102.2 117.6 130.9 128.5 118.6 133.0 97.1 81.1 68.4 76.4 83.8 77.6 1215.0
    Mean Rain Days 12.2 12.5 13.7 12.9 13.1 12.7 11.3 10.4 10.6 11.6 11.7 11.5 143.1