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Forecast

Kogarah Bay (33.9791°S, 151.1233°E, 32m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible shower 17° 23°
    possible shower
    Chance of rain: 70%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:15am EDT 5:43am EDT 7:38pm EDT 8:06pm EDT
    NOW
    19.6° Feels Like: 13.9°
    Relative Humidity: 69%
    Dew: 13.8°
    Wind: SE 35km/h
    Gust: 41km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1016.1hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Kogarah Bay
    Now
    19.7°c
    Feels Like:
    14.7°
    Wind:
    SSE 30km/h
    Gusts:
    39km/h
    Humidity:
    65%
    Possible shower
     
    17°
    Min
    23°
    Max
    Today in Kogarah Bay
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, becoming less likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h turning SE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    15°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Sunny. Light winds becoming N/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then tending N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, becoming less likely in the late afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon. Winds S 15 to 25 km/h turning SE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

    Forecast for Kogarah Bay (33.9791°S, 151.1233°E, 32m AMSL)
      Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    Summary Possible shower Sunny Sunny Cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 17° 15° 17° 17° 19° 18° 18°
    Maximum 23° 26° 31° 25° 29° 25° 28°
    Chance of rain 70% 5% 10% 20% 20% 60% 80%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm
    UV index Very High Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 17
    (km/h)
    41
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    Wind direction S SSE NNW ENE NW NE SSE ESE NNE ENE SSW SE ENE ENE
    Relative humidity 68% 61% 55% 44% 36% 25% 61% 54% 68% 53% 64% 60% 64% 50%
    Dew point 17°C 14°C 10°C 13°C 9°C 9°C 13°C 15°C 18°C 19°C 15°C 17°C 16°C 17°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Kogarah Bay Rain Forecast


    Kogarah Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 November to 3 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 10 December to 14 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Kogarah Bay Rain Forecast


    Kogarah Bay 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    3
    4
    5
    5
    5
    8
    7
    7
    6
    5
    6
    2
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Kogarah Bay Rain Forecast


    Kogarah Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    17
    MEDIUM
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    MEDIUM
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    MEDIUM
    14
    15
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 November to 3 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 10 December to 14 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Kogarah Bay Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Wednesday
    Nov 13
    13.7 °C 22.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Nov 14
    15.8 °C 26.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Nov 15
    16.5 °C 33.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Nov 16
    17.2 °C 22.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Nov 17
    17.2 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Kogarah Bay minimum temp history (33.9791°S, 151.1233°E, 32m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 37.9° 12/11/2019 Coldest this month 11.9° 09/11/2019
    Hottest on record 43.4 25/11/1982 Coldest on record 5.9 15/11/1949
    Hottest this year 40.6° 31/01/2019 Coldest this year 5.9° 20/06/2019
    Long term average 24.1° Long term average 15.5°
    Average this month 27.5° Average this month 15.9°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.2° 2009 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 13.3° 1943
    Kogarah Bay rainfall history (33.9791°S, 151.1233°E, 32m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 14.0mm 04/11/2019 Total This Month 14.2mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 81.7mm 11.4 days Wettest November on record 396.1mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Kogarah Bay Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 1014.7mm 118.9 day(s)
    Total For 2019 687.0mm 103.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 668.8mm 106.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 60.8mm Mar18
    Lowest Temperature 5.9°C Jun20
    Highest Temperature 40.6°C Jan31
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Kogarah Bay Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.6 26.4 25.3 22.9 20.1 17.6 17.1 18.4 20.6 22.7 24.1 25.8 22.3
    Mean Min (°C) 18.9 19.1 17.6 14.3 11.0 8.7 7.2 8.2 10.5 13.3 15.5 17.6 13.5
    Mean Rain (mm) 94.9 111.6 117.1 108.8 96.9 125.4 70.7 77.4 60.4 69.8 81.7 73.8 1088.5
    Mean Rain Days 11.2 11.5 12.5 11.2 11.1 11.4 9.4 9.2 9.4 10.6 11.4 10.6 127.3