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Forecast

Kilaben Bay (33.0245°S, 151.5873°E, 32m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 14° 27°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 20%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:15am EDT 5:42am EDT 7:34pm EDT 8:02pm EDT
    NOW
    21.7° Feels Like: 21.1°
    Relative Humidity: 60%
    Dew: 13.6°
    Wind: NNE 9km/h
    Gust: 11km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Kilaben Bay
    Now
    21.3°c
    Feels Like:
    20.5°
    Wind:
    ENE 11km/h
    Gusts:
    13km/h
    Humidity:
    64%
    Mostly sunny
     
    14°
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Today in Kilaben Bay
    Cloud clearing and becoming a sunny day. NW/SW winds 10 to 20 km/h, tending NE 20 to 30 km/h about the coast in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 32.
    Tomorrow
    Sunny
    15°
    Min
    33°
    Max
    Hot and sunny. Light winds becoming W/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then turning S/SE 15 to 25 km/h during the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 12 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching 33 to 38.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Kilaben Bay

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloud clearing and becoming a sunny day. NW/SW winds 10 to 20 km/h, tending NE 20 to 30 km/h about the coast in the late afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures 27 to 32.

    Forecast for Kilaben Bay (33.0245°S, 151.5873°E, 32m AMSL)
      Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
    Summary Mostly sunny Sunny Cloudy Increasing sunshine Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Possible shower
    Minimum 14° 15° 17° 17° 18° 18° 17°
    Maximum 27° 33° 25° 32° 27° 32° 23°
    Chance of rain 20% 30% 30% 20% 40% 90% 90%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm
    UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Very High Extreme - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 11
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    35
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    31
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NE E NW E SSW SE NE ENE W SE SW ESE S S
    Relative humidity 67% 65% 44% 43% 80% 81% 78% 68% 67% 75% 78% 74% 82% 83%
    Dew point 14°C 20°C 12°C 17°C 19°C 20°C 20°C 25°C 18°C 19°C 20°C 26°C 18°C 18°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Kilaben Bay Rain Forecast


    Kilaben Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    HIGH
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 November to 3 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 10 December to 14 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Kilaben Bay Rain Forecast


    Kilaben Bay 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2019
    2020
    3
    4
    5
    6
    5
    7
    6
    8
    7
    5
    6
    2
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 8

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Kilaben Bay Rain Forecast


    Kilaben Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    LOW
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    HIGH
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    HIGH
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    MEDIUM
    28
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Nov17

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 November to 3 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 November to 28 November, 10 December to 14 December, and 18 December to 22 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Kilaben Bay Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Thursday
    Nov 14
    6.0 °C 25.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Friday
    Nov 15
    8.8 °C 33.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Nov 16
    14.1 °C 23.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Nov 17
    15.4 °C 25 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Nov 18
    14 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Kilaben Bay minimum temp history (33.0245°S, 151.5873°E, 32m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 37.4° 08/11/2019 Coldest this month 9.2° 06/11/2019
    Hottest on record 42.0 20/11/2009 Coldest on record 4.7 05/11/2013
    Hottest this year 40.6° 05/01/2019 Coldest this year 2.2° 14/08/2019
    Long term average 26.0° Long term average 15.9°
    Average this month 28.8° Average this month 14.0°
    Hottest November On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.8° 2009 Coldest November on record Avg. min. temp. 14.0° 2013
    Kilaben Bay rainfall history (33.0245°S, 151.5873°E, 32m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 16.2mm 04/11/2019 Total This Month 16.2mm
    1.0 days
    Long Term Average 113.5mm 11.8 days Wettest November on record 279.5mm 2009
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Kilaben Bay Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Nov 1059.6mm 119.0 day(s)
    Total For 2019 623.3mm 67.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 803.5mm 93.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 72.5mm Aug31
    Lowest Temperature 2.2°C Aug14
    Highest Temperature 40.6°C Jan 5
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Kilaben Bay Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.2 28.3 26.7 23.9 21.1 18.4 17.8 19.7 22.6 24.8 26.0 27.8 23.9
    Mean Min (°C) 19.4 19.4 17.4 13.9 10.5 8.7 7.5 8.0 10.8 13.3 15.9 17.8 13.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 89.6 137.0 123.2 135.5 90.3 123.7 60.1 59.2 69.1 58.4 113.5 68.6 1128.7
    Mean Rain Days 10.6 12.2 11.8 11.3 11.2 12.6 11.2 9.2 8.3 8.8 11.8 10.4 117.7