Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Damaging Winds
for parts of Riverina Forecast District.
Issued at 4:31 pm Tuesday, 19 March 2024.
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts continue through the Riverina.
Weather Situation
Severe thunderstorms have developed in an unstable airmass ahead of a trough. The trough will move east through the Riverina during the afternoon and early evening. Severe thunderstorms are fast moving to the east and southeast and are likely to persist into the evening.
DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Riverina
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Albury, Hay, Finley, Holbrook, Lockhart and Jerilderie.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* Trees that have been damaged by fire are likely to be more unstable and more likely to fall.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 7:35 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Jagungal Wilderness (36.1617°S, 148.314°E, 1377m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY10° 21° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 90% Likely amount: 10-20mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 6:43am EDT 7:09am EDT 7:19pm EDT 7:45pm EDT NOW19.6° Feels Like: 15.4° Relative Humidity: 55% Dew: 10.3° Wind: NW 22km/h Gust: 30km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: -
Today Weather
Jagungal WildernessNow17.2°cFeels Like:15.4°Wind:N 7km/hGusts:20km/hHumidity:57%10°Min21°MaxToday in Jagungal WildernessPartly cloudy. High chance of showers about the alpine peaks, medium chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h.Tomorrow9°Min14°MaxCloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Winds NW 25 to 35 km/h shifting S/SW 20 to 30 km/h during the morning. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers about the alpine peaks, medium chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h.
Forecast for Jagungal Wilderness (36.1617°S, 148.314°E, 1377m AMSL) Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Summary Minimum 10° 9° 2° 5° 6° 7° 7° Maximum 21° 14° 16° 16° 16° 17° 16° Chance of rain 90% 20% 5% 5% 10% 5% 10% Likely amount 10-20mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High High High High Fire Danger Rating Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate - - Frost risk Nil Nil Moderate Slight Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 15
(km/h)19
(km/h)20
(km/h)22
(km/h)17
(km/h)12
(km/h)12
(km/h)17
(km/h)13
(km/h)16
(km/h)16
(km/h)22
(km/h)16
(km/h)24
(km/h)Wind direction ENE NNW WNW W ESE NNW NE W E WNW WNW W WNW WNW Relative humidity 72% 56% 91% 54% 55% 40% 65% 47% 74% 50% 70% 44% 61% 47% Dew point 10°C 11°C 9°C 3°C -3°C 1°C 2°C 4°C 4°C 4°C 5°C 3°C 2°C 4°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Jagungal Wilderness Rain Forecast
Jagungal Wilderness 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Jagungal Wilderness Rain Forecast
Jagungal Wilderness 12-month Rainfall ForecastMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20242025576766535859105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 5
ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Long range rainfall forecast
Jagungal Wilderness Rain Forecast
Jagungal Wilderness 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT19
20
21
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Mar19Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Past 5 Days
Jagungal Wilderness Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Friday
Mar 157.3 °C 15.6 °C 8.6 mmSaturday
Mar 165.3 °C 18.7 °C 0.0 mmSunday
Mar 178.2 °C 15.4 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Mar 189.4 °C 19.0 °C 3.6 mmTuesday
Mar 1911.2 °C 21.9 °C 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Jagungal Wilderness minimum temp history (36.1617°S, 148.314°E, 1377m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 25.9° 07/03/2024 Coldest this month 5.3° 16/03/2024 Hottest on record 28.4 08/03/2016 Coldest on record -0.8 06/03/2005 Hottest this year 26.1° 04/02/2024 Coldest this year 5.3° 16/03/2024 Long term average 17.5° Long term average 8.9° Average this month 21.5° Average this month 12.3° Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 20.4° 2006 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 7.3° 2005 Jagungal Wilderness rainfall history (36.1617°S, 148.314°E, 1377m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 8.6mm 15/03/2024 Total This Month 13.6mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 84.0mm 8.3 days Wettest March on record 261.6mm 2012 Driest on record 5.6mm 2004 -
Year to Date
Jagungal Wilderness Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Mar 240.3mm 24.2 day(s) Total For 2024 192.6mm 22.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2023 193.4mm 20.0 day(s) Wettest Day 51.0mm Jan 8 Lowest Temperature 5.3°C Mar16 Highest Temperature 26.1°C Feb 4 -
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Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Jagungal Wilderness Climatology
Jagungal Wilderness Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 21.4 20.5 17.5 12.9 8.4 5.3 3.9 5.0 8.8 12.3 15.7 18.5 12.4 Mean Min (°C) 11.6 11.0 8.9 5.8 2.7 0.5 -0.7 -0.4 1.8 4.2 7.0 9.1 5.1 Mean Rain (mm) 78.3 78.0 84.0 80.0 94.2 124.5 116.4 125.7 120.0 109.4 122.9 97.4 1211.0 Mean Rain Days 8.3 7.6 8.3 8.1 10.6 13.3 15.0 14.6 12.4 11.2 11.0 9.4 127.6