Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Heavy Rainfall And Damaging Winds
for parts of Central Tablelands, Central West Slopes and Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Lower Western and Upper Western Forecast Districts.
Issued at 8:44 pm Thursday, 28 January 2021.
Weather Situation
A trough of low pressure over inland NSW is bringing unsettled conditions.
HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Central Tablelands, Central West Slopes and Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Lower Western and Upper Western
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Parkes, Young, West Wyalong, Griffith, Cobar and Ivanhoe.
67.2 mm was observed at MURRUMBURRAH in the 3hrs to 28.01.2021 18:00
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* Trees that have been damaged by fire are likely to be more unstable and more likely to fall.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
* If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
* Be aware that run-off from rainfall in fire affected areas may behave differently and be more rapid. It may also contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* After bushfires, heavy rain and the loss of foliage can make the ground soft and heavy, leading to a greater chance of landslides.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 11:45 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Forbes (33.3853°S, 148.0079°E, 233m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW
16° 27° heavy showers Chance of rain: 70% Likely amount: 5-10mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 6:00am EDT 6:27am EDT 8:15pm EDT 8:42pm EDT NOW18.8° Feels Like: 16.8° Relative Humidity: 78% Dew: 14.9° Wind: SE 18km/h Gust: 30km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1016.1hPa -
Today Weather
ForbesNow19.1°cFeels Like:16.2°Wind:E 24km/hGusts:33km/hHumidity:80%
16°Min27°MaxToday in ForbesCloudy. High chance of showers in the S, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible on the plains. Winds E/NE 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 35.Tomorrow
16°Min27°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers in the S, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds NE 15 to 25 km/h tending N 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 17 and 22 with daytime temperatures reaching 30 to 35. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers in the S, slight chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible on the plains. Winds E/NE 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 21 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 35.
Forecast for Forbes (33.3853°S, 148.0079°E, 233m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary 
Minimum 16° 19° 18° 17° 19° 14° 13° Maximum 27° 31° 33° 34° 27° 28° 31° Chance of rain 70% 40% 40% 60% 50% 70% 40% Likely amount 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 14
(km/h)15
(km/h)16
(km/h)16
(km/h)5
(km/h)9
(km/h)14
(km/h)15
(km/h)19
(km/h)23
(km/h)8
(km/h)13
(km/h)8
(km/h)12
(km/h)Wind direction ENE NE NNE NNW ESE SW ENE NNE NNW W SSW SW ESE WNW Relative humidity 85% 60% 78% 52% 72% 44% 66% 42% 71% 51% 64% 43% 64% 37% Dew point 18°C 18°C 20°C 19°C 20°C 18°C 18°C 18°C 18°C 15°C 13°C 13°C 14°C 13°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Forbes Rain Forecast
Forbes 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWFeb 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
10
11
12
13
14
15
LOW16
LOW17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
LOW24
LOW25
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Forbes Rain Forecast
Forbes 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2021987877847556105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Forbes Rain Forecast
Forbes 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
MEDIUM29
LOW30
LOW31
LOWFeb 1
HIGH2
MEDIUM3
LOW4
MEDIUM5
6
LOW7
LOW8
LOW9
10
11
12
13
14
15
LOW16
LOW17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
23
LOW24
LOW25
LOWCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Forbes Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Jan 2419.2 °C 39.7 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2521.6 °C 39.1 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 2620.9 °C 36.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Jan 2721.1 °C 37.0 °C 1.4 mmThursday
Jan 2819.2 °C 29.7 °C 0.8 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Forbes minimum temp history (33.3853°S, 148.0079°E, 233m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 39.7° 24/01/2021 Coldest this month 9.3° 18/01/2021 Hottest on record 45.5 13/01/2017 Coldest on record 7.5 12/01/2012 Hottest this year 39.7° 24/01/2021 Coldest this year 9.3° 18/01/2021 Long term average 34.8° Long term average 18.5° Average this month 32.4° Average this month 15.7° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 37.4° 2006 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 16.1° 2012 Forbes rainfall history (33.3853°S, 148.0079°E, 233m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 37.6mm 03/01/2021 Total This Month 106.4mm
10.0 daysLong Term Average 28.9mm 5.6 days Wettest January on record 81.4mm 2016 Driest on record 0.0mm 2002 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for Australia
Australia Radars
- Adelaide
- Adelaide Airport
- Adelaide Sellicks
- Albany
- Alice Springs
- Bairnsdale
- Bowen
- Brewarrina
- Brisbane
- Brisbane Airport
- Brisbane Marburg
- Broadmeadows
- Broome
- Cairns
- Cairns Airport
- Canberra
- Carnarvon
- Ceduna
- Coffs Harbour
- Dampier
- Darwin
- Darwin Airport
- Emerald
- Esperance
- Eucla
- Geraldton
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Year to Date
Forbes Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 28.9mm 5.6 day(s) Total For 2021 106.4mm 10.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 48.4mm 4.0 day(s) Wettest Day 37.6mm Jan 3 Lowest Temperature 9.3°C Jan18 Highest Temperature 39.7°C Jan24 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Forbes Climatology
Forbes Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 34.8 32.8 29.4 24.7 19.4 15.5 14.7 16.4 20.6 25.1 29.1 31.9 24.5 Mean Min (°C) 18.5 17.6 14.4 9.6 5.5 3.7 2.6 2.7 5.2 8.7 12.7 15.4 9.7 Mean Rain (mm) 28.9 49.4 50.2 28.7 32.4 50.7 39.8 34.9 40.6 43.3 43.9 52.3 489.9 Mean Rain Days 5.6 5.5 5.6 4.6 6.7 12.2 12.2 9.3 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 87.4
