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Forecast

Firefly (32.0826°S, 152.2449°E, 56m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Mostly sunny 17° 28°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 20%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:44am EDT 6:09am EDT 7:03pm EDT 7:28pm EDT
    NOW
    19.4° Feels Like: 18.2°
    Relative Humidity: 96%
    Dew: 18.7°
    Wind: WSW 22km/h
    Gust: 26km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.4mm
    Pressure: 1014.1hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Firefly
    Now
    18.6°c
    Feels Like:
    18.9°
    Wind:
    SSE 9km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    86%
    Mostly sunny
     
    17°
    Min
    28°
    Max
    Today in Firefly
    Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon. Winds NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h tending W 25 to 40 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 27 to 33.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    17°
    Min
    28°
    Max
    Sunny. Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 23 to 28.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon. Winds NW/NE 20 to 30 km/h tending W 25 to 40 km/h in the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 14 and 18 with daytime temperatures reaching 27 to 33.

    Forecast for Firefly (32.0826°S, 152.2449°E, 56m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Mostly sunny Sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 17° 13° 12° 14° 11° 12° 13°
    Maximum 28° 23° 27° 21° 22° 22° 23°
    Chance of rain 20% 5% 20% 5% 10% 5% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 10
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    Wind direction W WSW WSW SE NNW NE SW S WSW SE S ESE NNE ENE
    Relative humidity 78% 58% 41% 42% 48% 42% 57% 55% 65% 59% 67% 63% 62% 60%
    Dew point 19°C 18°C 4°C 9°C 8°C 13°C 8°C 12°C 11°C 14°C 12°C 15°C 12°C 15°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Firefly Rain Forecast


    Firefly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    Nov 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Firefly Rain Forecast


    Firefly 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    6
    4
    4
    4
    6
    5
    7
    7
    6
    6
    6
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Firefly Rain Forecast


    Firefly 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    MEDIUM
    30
    LOW
    31
    Nov 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    MEDIUM
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Firefly Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Oct 12
    13.6 °C 17.4 °C
    13.4 mm
    Sunday
    Oct 13
    12.5 °C 19.0 °C
    16.0 mm
    Monday
    Oct 14
    10.5 °C 20.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 15
    14.3 °C 22.5 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 16
    18.5 °C -
    0.2 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Firefly minimum temp history (32.0826°S, 152.2449°E, 56m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 28.8° 08/10/2019 Coldest this month 10.5° 14/10/2019
    Hottest on record 37.0 20/10/2012 Coldest on record 5.6 08/10/2008
    Hottest this year 36.0° 12/02/2019 Coldest this year 1.0° 29/05/2019
    Long term average 22.8° Long term average 13.8°
    Average this month 21.6° Average this month 13.7°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 25.3° 2007 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 11.3° 2008
    Firefly rainfall history (32.0826°S, 152.2449°E, 56m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 34.0mm 11/10/2019 Total This Month 72.1mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 72.5mm 7.8 days Wettest October on record 393.0mm 2007
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Firefly Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 985.4mm 81.1 day(s)
    Total For 2019 633.6mm 101.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 1275.0mm 110.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 59.0mm Feb 2
    Lowest Temperature 1.0°C May29
    Highest Temperature 36.0°C Feb12
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Firefly Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.5 26.4 25.6 23.8 21.2 18.9 18.2 19.4 21.6 22.8 23.8 25.5 22.8
    Mean Min (°C) 19.5 19.5 17.9 15.2 12.0 9.9 8.8 9.2 11.8 13.8 16.4 18.0 14.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 104.2 111.5 137.3 118.1 110.8 112.7 84.5 68.3 65.5 72.5 82.4 89.4 1156.8
    Mean Rain Days 8.1 8.4 9.7 8.6 8.6 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.9 7.8 8.3 7.6 95.8