Forecast
Fernleigh (28.7603°S, 153.4977°E, 87m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW21° 28° Chance of rain: 40% Likely amount: 1-5mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:48am EDT 6:14am EDT 7:45pm EDT 8:10pm EDT NOW25.1° Feels Like: 25.4° Relative Humidity: 75% Dew: 20.4° Wind: SE 18km/h Gust: 22km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1013.8hPa -
Today Weather
FernleighNow24.2°cFeels Like:25.5°Wind:S 11km/hGusts:13km/hHumidity:75%21°Min28°MaxToday in FernleighPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds becoming E 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 20 with daytime temperatures reaching the high 20s.Tomorrow21°Min28°MaxPartly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the S in the morning and afternoon. Light winds becoming E 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 19 with daytime temperatures reaching around 30. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
There are no current warnings for Fernleigh
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7 day forecast
Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and early afternoon. Light winds becoming E 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to around 20 with daytime temperatures reaching the high 20s.
Forecast for Fernleigh (28.7603°S, 153.4977°E, 87m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 21° 20° 21° 20° 20° 21° 20° Maximum 28° 29° 28° 27° 28° 29° 29° Chance of rain 40% 70% 80% 50% 70% 80% 90% Likely amount 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 13
(km/h)16
(km/h)6
(km/h)14
(km/h)6
(km/h)15
(km/h)10
(km/h)15
(km/h)6
(km/h)14
(km/h)6
(km/h)14
(km/h)5
(km/h)12
(km/h)Wind direction ESE ESE E E ENE E ESE ESE NE ENE NE ENE E SE Relative humidity 79% 64% 82% 64% 83% 66% 73% 60% 78% 63% 76% 65% 79% 68% Dew point 21°C 21°C 21°C 21°C 22°C 21°C 19°C 19°C 21°C 21°C 21°C 22°C 21°C 23°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Fernleigh Rain Forecast
Fernleigh 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
MEDIUM29
MEDIUM30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMFeb 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
HIGH4
LOW5
LOW6
MEDIUM7
HIGH8
HIGH9
HIGH10
HIGH11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
LOW15
LOW16
17
18
19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Fernleigh Rain Forecast
Fernleigh 12-month Rainfall ForecastJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2021877887866755105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Jan 7
ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is likely at its peak which has brought long periods of cloud and rain to eastern and northern Australia.The majority of models predict that La Niña will continue through February, with 3 of 8 predicting to March and most of the models indicating a return to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April. Neutral conditions are predicted to continue into the Australian winter. La Nina typically brings above normal rainfall across much of Australia. While La Niña is expected to weaken, above normal rainfall and typical La Niña impacts are still expected. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal, however normal rainfall is expected for western TAS. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brought anearly start to the wet season. During Autumn, many parts of Australia are likely to be wetter than normal, due to warmer waters off the northeast coast of Australia. Southern parts of SA, VIC and most of TAS are likely to observe normal precipitation for the time of year.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Fernleigh Rain Forecast
Fernleigh 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT28
MEDIUM29
MEDIUM30
MEDIUM31
MEDIUMFeb 1
MEDIUM2
MEDIUM3
HIGH4
LOW5
LOW6
MEDIUM7
HIGH8
HIGH9
HIGH10
HIGH11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
LOW14
LOW15
LOW16
17
18
19
LOW20
LOW21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
LOW25
MEDIUMCHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Jan28Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 February to 6 February, 17 February to 21 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 February to 6 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 3 March to 7 March. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 February to 13 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 17 February to 21 February.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Fernleigh Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Sunday
Jan 2416.3 °C 28.0 °C 0.0 mmMonday
Jan 2518.4 °C 28.2 °C 0.0 mmTuesday
Jan 2616.8 °C 28.5 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Jan 2719.4 °C 29.4 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Jan 2822.8 °C 28.6 °C 1.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Fernleigh minimum temp history (28.7603°S, 153.4977°E, 87m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 31.0° 15/01/2021 Coldest this month 16.3° 12/01/2021 Hottest on record 42.0 12/01/2002 Coldest on record 12.2 15/01/1997 Hottest this year 31.0° 15/01/2021 Coldest this year 16.3° 12/01/2021 Long term average 28.4° Long term average 19.7° Average this month 27.9° Average this month 19.3° Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.4° 2010 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 18.2° 1997 Fernleigh rainfall history (28.7603°S, 153.4977°E, 87m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 28.6mm 08/01/2021 Total This Month 117.8mm
14.0 daysLong Term Average 163.0mm 13.8 days Wettest January on record 362.2mm 2008 Driest on record 2.4mm 2019 -
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Year to Date
Fernleigh Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Jan 163.0mm 13.8 day(s) Total For 2021 117.8mm 14.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2020 170.0mm 11.0 day(s) Wettest Day 28.6mm Jan 8 Lowest Temperature 16.3°C Jan12 Highest Temperature 31.0°C Jan15 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Fernleigh Climatology
Fernleigh Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 28.4 28.1 27.2 25.1 22.5 20.3 20.1 21.4 23.6 24.9 26.3 27.6 24.6 Mean Min (°C) 19.7 19.7 18.4 15.4 12.1 10.2 8.7 8.8 11.5 14.1 16.5 18.4 14.4 Mean Rain (mm) 163.0 202.1 213.3 187.8 159.6 205.7 110.8 91.1 64.3 98.8 122.7 145.6 1746.9 Mean Rain Days 13.8 15.4 18.1 15.4 14.7 14.0 11.3 8.9 8.9 11.5 12.0 13.0 155.1