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Forecast

Fernbrook (30.3654°S, 152.5902°E, 979m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly cloudy 15°
    mostly cloudy
    Chance of rain: 30%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:20am EST 6:46am EST 4:57pm EST 5:24pm EST
    NOW
    17.9° Feels Like: 14.3°
    Relative Humidity: 70%
    Dew: 12.4°
    Wind: NE 22km/h
    Gust: 26km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1020.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Fernbrook
    Now
    11.8°c
    Feels Like:
    7.4°
    Wind:
    NW 22km/h
    Gusts:
    24km/h
    Humidity:
    85%
    Mostly cloudy
     
    Min
    15°
    Max
    Today in Fernbrook
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of rain in the S, slight chance elsewhere. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 15 and 21.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    11°
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the N in the late afternoon and evening. Winds N/NW 15 to 25 km/h tending W/NW 15 to 20 km/h during the morning and early afternoon. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching between 16 and 22.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of rain in the S, slight chance elsewhere. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 15 and 21.

    Forecast for Fernbrook (30.3654°S, 152.5902°E, 979m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Mostly cloudy Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Frost then sunny Mostly sunny Possible shower Possible shower
    Minimum 11°
    Maximum 15° 16° 14° 14° 13° 12° 13°
    Chance of rain 30% 70% 20% 5% 90% 90% 90%
    Likely amount < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm 1-5mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Low - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Slight Moderate Moderate Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 13
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    3
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N N NNW NW W SW WSW SSE SW S SSW SSE S ESE
    Relative humidity 74% 71% 83% 81% 73% 52% 63% 54% 71% 71% 90% 90% 90% 85%
    Dew point 8°C 10°C 12°C 12°C 5°C 4°C 3°C 4°C 4°C 7°C 9°C 10°C 9°C 11°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Fernbrook Rain Forecast


    Fernbrook 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    HIGH
    Jul 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun24

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 June to 4 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 25 July to 29 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 June to 26 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 June to 3 July, 3 July to 7 July, and 21 July to 25 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Fernbrook Rain Forecast


    Fernbrook 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    2021
    2022
    5
    7
    7
    6
    7
    7
    6
    8
    8
    6
    7
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral. IOD status: Neutral, although during the past three weeks it has been negative. SAM status: Positive. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, which is predicted to continue until at least October. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. although the last 3 weekly values have been negative.The negative value would need to continue for another 5 weeks for a negative IOD to be declared. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly value may enhance rainfall across central and southern Australia. A negative IOD is forecast during winter or early spring by 3 out of 5 climate models. However, the confidence in the IOD forecast at this time of the year is low, specifically because the models are showing a range of outcomes from mid winter onwards. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and much of TAS. The weekly negative IOD valuesmay be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from western TAS. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Fernbrook Rain Forecast


    Fernbrook 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    24
    LOW
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    27
    28
    HIGH
    29
    HIGH
    30
    HIGH
    Jul 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    4
    LOW
    5
    LOW
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    LOW
    9
    LOW
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    14
    LOW
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun24

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 June to 4 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 25 July to 29 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 June to 26 June. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 June to 3 July, 3 July to 7 July, and 21 July to 25 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Fernbrook Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Jun 20
    9.1 °C 13.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jun 21
    8.0 °C 13.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jun 22
    8.0 °C 14.0 °C
    10.6 mm
    Wednesday
    Jun 23
    7.0 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jun 24
    - -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Fernbrook minimum temp history (30.3654°S, 152.5902°E, 979m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 19.0° 16/06/2021 Coldest this month 0.0° 12/06/2021
    Hottest on record 25.0 09/06/2016 Coldest on record -3.5 25/06/1998
    Hottest this year 29.0° 15/01/2021 Coldest this year 0.0° 17/05/2021
    Long term average 14.9° Long term average 5.5°
    Average this month 15.1° Average this month 4.8°
    Hottest June On Record Avg. max. temp. 16.2° 2014 Coldest June on record Avg. min. temp. 3.6° 2004
    Fernbrook rainfall history (30.3654°S, 152.5902°E, 979m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 10.6mm 22/06/2021 Total This Month 24.6mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 133.2mm 10.5 days Wettest June on record 565.2mm 2011
    Driest on record 8.8mm 2004
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Fernbrook Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jun 1265.5mm 85.5 day(s)
    Total For 2021 1357.4mm 84.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 1363.6mm 86.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 91.4mm Feb19
    Lowest Temperature 0.0°C May17
    Highest Temperature 29.0°C Jan15
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Fernbrook Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 24.6 23.8 22.4 19.9 17.1 14.9 14.7 16.2 19.3 21.3 22.5 24.0 20.1
    Mean Min (°C) 15.2 15.1 13.7 10.7 7.4 5.5 4.5 4.7 7.6 9.9 12.1 14.0 10.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 276.0 297.1 310.2 130.4 118.6 133.2 56.1 93.2 78.0 133.1 165.9 200.4 1973.0
    Mean Rain Days 15.3 16.6 18.3 13.8 11.0 10.5 8.8 7.1 8.8 12.6 15.0 16.3 153.4