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Forecast

Erskineville (33.8997°S, 151.1841°E, 19m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Windy with showers 21° 27°
    windy with showers
    Chance of rain: 80%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:34am EDT 6:59am EDT 7:06pm EDT 7:31pm EDT
    NOW
    24.7° Feels Like: 23.5°
    Relative Humidity: 77%
    Dew: 20.4°
    Wind: NE 26km/h
    Gust: 28km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure: 1014.0hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Erskineville
    Now
    23.3°c
    Feels Like:
    23.3°
    Wind:
    NE 20km/h
    Gusts:
    32km/h
    Humidity:
    85%
    Windy with showers
     
    21°
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Today in Erskineville
    Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h shifting SW 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then tending S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon. Wind reaching 40 to 55 km/h near the coast from late afternoon.
    Tomorrow
    Windy with showers
    21°
    Min
    27°
    Max
    Cloudy. Winds S 25 to 35 km/h decreasing to 15 to 25 km/h before dawn then turning SE 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N 15 to 20 km/h shifting SW 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then tending S 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon. Wind reaching 40 to 55 km/h near the coast from late afternoon.

    Forecast for Erskineville (33.8997°S, 151.1841°E, 19m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Windy with showers Mostly sunny Clearing shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Late shower
    Minimum 21° 17° 17° 16° 17° 17° 18°
    Maximum 27° 23° 25° 25° 27° 28° 27°
    Chance of rain 80% 20% 40% 20% 20% 20% 90%
    Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High High High High High
    Fire Danger Rating Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 15
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNW SSW S SSE NNE ENE W SSE WSW ENE WNW NE SW SE
    Relative humidity 81% 78% 58% 50% 69% 56% 77% 64% 79% 54% 70% 48% 67% 62%
    Dew point 21°C 21°C 11°C 11°C 14°C 15°C 16°C 17°C 17°C 16°C 15°C 15°C 16°C 18°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Erskineville Rain Forecast


    Erskineville 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Erskineville Rain Forecast


    Erskineville 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    2024
    2025
    5
    8
    6
    6
    8
    8
    7
    5
    5
    6
    4
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Mar 5

    ENSO status: El Niño, breaking down. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Neutral, trending slightly positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in an El Niño and is starting to break down. All international models indicate neutral conditions should return by late April or early May. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is back below the threshold of -7, but is varying significantly with tropical activity over Australia and the Pacific. Waters in the Coral Sea are far warmer than normal, especially for an El Niño, and are offsetting the effects of this event. El Niño only has a small effect during autumn, typically increasing rainfall over the Nullarbor and SA, but having little effect elsewhere. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase. Ocean temperatures are high across most of the Indian Ocean, with only cooler waters near the WA coast. The IOD has little to no effect during autumn. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is neutral and will slightly favour a positive phase during March and April and return closer to true neutral in May. A positive SAM increases easterly winds, increasing rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the east. As we go closer to winter, a positive SAM also reduces cold fronts and rainfall over southern Australia. Rainfall outlooks are predicting average rainfall for the vast majority of Australia throughout autumn. There are some weak signals that southwest WA could be slightly drier than normal in April, and southeast Qld and NSW could be slightly wetter during May, but otherwise near average.

  11. Popup - Daily historical

  12. Long range rainfall forecast

    Erskineville Rain Forecast


    Erskineville 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    19
    20
    21
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Mar19

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-04-05. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2024-03-18, 2024-03-23 and 2024-03-28. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2024-03-18 and 2024-03-23.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  13. Past 5 Days

    Erskineville Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Mar 15
    18.6 °C 25.5 °C
    2.8 mm
    Saturday
    Mar 16
    17.1 °C 25.5 °C
    0.6 mm
    Sunday
    Mar 17
    17.6 °C 22.2 °C
    35.8 mm
    Monday
    Mar 18
    18.1 °C 26.2 °C
    0.2 mm
    Tuesday
    Mar 19
    19.5 °C 28.6 °C
    6.6 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Erskineville minimum temp history (33.8997°S, 151.1841°E, 19m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 33.8° 12/03/2024 Coldest this month 17.1° 16/03/2024
    Hottest on record 41.2 09/03/1983 Coldest on record 7.4 24/03/1967
    Hottest this year 40.6° 26/01/2024 Coldest this year 15.7° 25/02/2024
    Long term average 25.4° Long term average 17.7°
    Average this month 28.1° Average this month 19.8°
    Hottest March On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.4° 1940 Coldest March on record Avg. min. temp. 15.1° 1944
    Erskineville rainfall history (33.8997°S, 151.1841°E, 19m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 35.8mm 17/03/2024 Total This Month 46.6mm
    6.0 days
    Long Term Average 123.7mm 12.8 days Wettest March on record 393.0mm 1975
    Driest on record 6.4mm 1965
  15. Year to Date

    Erskineville Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Mar 335.8mm 35.7 day(s)
    Total For 2024 257.6mm 29.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2023 342.0mm 34.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 39.0mm Feb20
    Lowest Temperature 15.7°C Feb25
    Highest Temperature 40.6°C Jan26
  16. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Erskineville Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.7 26.5 25.4 23.0 20.2 17.7 17.2 18.5 20.8 22.8 24.2 25.9 22.4
    Mean Min (°C) 19.0 19.2 17.7 14.4 11.1 8.8 7.4 8.3 10.7 13.4 15.6 17.6 13.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 94.1 118.0 123.7 106.7 95.9 123.2 72.2 75.3 59.5 71.6 81.0 73.4 1091.8
    Mean Rain Days 11.3 11.6 12.8 11.2 10.9 11.4 9.3 9.0 9.3 10.7 11.4 10.6 129.4