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Forecast

Elermore Vale (32.9163°S, 151.6755°E, 37m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Windy 16° 28°
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:46am EDT 6:11am EDT 7:06pm EDT 7:32pm EDT
    NOW
    18.7° Feels Like: 20.0°
    Relative Humidity: 94%
    Dew: 17.7°
    Wind: SE 7km/h
    Gust: 9km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Elermore Vale
    Now
    18.4°c
    Feels Like:
    19.0°
    Wind:
    SSE 9km/h
    Gusts:
    11km/h
    Humidity:
    92%
    Windy
     
    16°
    Min
    28°
    Max
    Today in Elermore Vale
    Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the early morning. Winds W 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 13 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 30.
    Tomorrow
    Windy
    16°
    Min
    28°
    Max
    Sunny. Winds W 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 20s.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the early morning. Winds W 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 13 and 16 with daytime temperatures reaching 25 to 30.

    Forecast for Elermore Vale (32.9163°S, 151.6755°E, 37m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Windy Sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 16° 11° 12° 11° 10° 11° 11°
    Maximum 28° 24° 29° 21° 23° 24° 26°
    Chance of rain 5% 5% 20% 10% 10% 10% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Very High Very High Very High Very High - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 14
    (km/h)
    33
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    25
    (km/h)
    Wind direction WNW W W E NW WNW SW S W SE S E NE E
    Relative humidity 87% 43% 48% 49% 47% 40% 54% 59% 67% 66% 73% 70% 73% 64%
    Dew point 18°C 14°C 4°C 12°C 8°C 14°C 6°C 12°C 11°C 15°C 12°C 18°C 13°C 19°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Elermore Vale Rain Forecast


    Elermore Vale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Elermore Vale Rain Forecast


    Elermore Vale 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    2019
    2020
    4
    4
    5
    4
    6
    6
    6
    6
    8
    6
    5
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Oct 7

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remain within neutral values. The Nino3.4 index lingered between -0.2 and 0.2 through the month of September. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -12.4 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral spring, but well within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a slightly warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds during the 2019/2020 summer. The IRI ENSO forecast suggests less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for spring continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. A negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the other hand, is likely to enhance frontal activity over the far south during spring. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during the remainder of spring.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Elermore Vale Rain Forecast


    Elermore Vale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    16
    MEDIUM
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    LOW
    26
    27
    LOW
    28
    LOW
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    LOW
    Nov 1
    2
    3
    LOW
    4
    5
    LOW
    6
    MEDIUM
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Oct16

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 October to 31 October, 6 November to 10 November, and 13 November to 17 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 October to 3 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 18 November to 22 November. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 1 November to 5 November, and 7 November to 11 November.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Elermore Vale Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Oct 12
    12.8 °C 16.5 °C
    13.0 mm
    Sunday
    Oct 13
    12.6 °C 19.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Oct 14
    - 23.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Oct 15
    13.2 °C 26.2 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Oct 16
    14.5 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Elermore Vale minimum temp history (32.9163°S, 151.6755°E, 37m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 34.2° 04/10/2019 Coldest this month 9.1° 02/10/2019
    Hottest on record 37.9 19/10/2002 Coldest on record 5.4 28/10/1998
    Hottest this year 40.6° 05/01/2019 Coldest this year 2.2° 14/08/2019
    Long term average 24.8° Long term average 13.3°
    Average this month 23.0° Average this month 12.6°
    Hottest October On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.5° 2002 Coldest October on record Avg. min. temp. 11.8° 2012
    Elermore Vale rainfall history (32.9163°S, 151.6755°E, 37m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 13.0mm 12/10/2019 Total This Month 32.2mm
    7.0 days
    Long Term Average 58.4mm 8.8 days Wettest October on record 170.2mm 2002
  15. Popup - Radar

  16. Year to Date

    Elermore Vale Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Oct 946.1mm 107.2 day(s)
    Total For 2019 620.1mm 68.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2018 762.5mm 85.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 72.5mm Aug31
    Lowest Temperature 2.2°C Aug14
    Highest Temperature 40.6°C Jan 5
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Elermore Vale Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 29.2 28.3 26.7 23.9 21.1 18.4 17.8 19.7 22.6 24.8 26.0 27.8 23.9
    Mean Min (°C) 19.4 19.4 17.4 13.9 10.5 8.7 7.5 8.0 10.8 13.3 15.9 17.8 13.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 89.6 137.0 123.2 135.5 90.3 123.7 60.1 59.2 69.1 58.4 113.5 68.6 1128.7
    Mean Rain Days 10.6 12.2 11.8 11.3 11.2 12.6 11.2 9.2 8.3 8.8 11.8 10.4 117.7