Forecast

Issue Notes - Issued Jul 17

ENSO status: La Nina Watch IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral to positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific have continued to exhibit some cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1 in June. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -9.6 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will continue across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds during spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 55:50 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Three of the six international models indicate a negative IOD becomingestablished during the Austral winter or early spring, with the remaining three indicating a neutral phase. Of the three neutral models, two are trending slightly negative within the neutral zone by early spring, while one model (BoM’s outlook) is trending positive. The BoM model does trend to neither positive or negative by late spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook continues to favour below average rainfall during July, except for NSW and Qld east of the divide where there are indications of above average rainfall. The below average rainfall forecast for July is driven by the breakdown of what was likely to be a negative IOD until a late season tropical cyclone (Mangga) cooled waters off the northwest coast. The above average rainfall forecast for eastern NSW and Qld is driven by the likelihood of coastal troughs, rainfall in the wake of cold fronts and moist trade winds in the northeast. Models then suggest above average rainfall for most of the easterntwo-thirds of the country, and central western and inland southern WA, for late winter and early spring. Southeast SA, much of Victoria, western and central Tasmania and southwest WA are not showing any signals of above or below average rainfall during this period, most likely due to a trending positive SAM. The SAM has been mainly negative in June and early July. The northern Australian dry season is continuing, with northern WA likely to see less rainfall than northern NT and QLD due to dry winds.