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Forecast

Cottage Point (33.6196°S, 151.2038°E, 53m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Possible shower 10° 16°
    possible shower
    Chance of rain: 70%
    Likely amount: 1-3mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:30am EST 6:57am EST 5:05pm EST 5:32pm EST
    NOW
    10.3° Feels Like: 7.1°
    Relative Humidity: 91%
    Dew: 8.9°
    Wind: SW 15km/h
    Gust: 19km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 11.2mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Cottage Point
    Now
    12.7°c
    Feels Like:
    10.1°
    Wind:
    SW 13km/h
    Gusts:
    20km/h
    Humidity:
    82%
    Possible shower
     
    10°
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Today in Cottage Point
    Partly cloudy. High chance of showers along the coastal fringe, medium chance elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h, reaching up to 50 km/h along parts of the coastal fringe.
    Tomorrow
    Possible shower
    10°
    Min
    16°
    Max
    Cloudy. Medium chance of showers along the coastal fringe, slight chance elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. High chance of showers along the coastal fringe, medium chance elsewhere. Winds SW 25 to 40 km/h, reaching up to 50 km/h along parts of the coastal fringe.

    Forecast for Cottage Point (33.6196°S, 151.2038°E, 53m AMSL)
      Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
    Summary Possible shower Possible shower Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 10° 10° 13° 12° 10° 12° 10°
    Maximum 16° 16° 17° 17° 19° 18° 16°
    Chance of rain 70% 50% 50% 20% 5% 10% 30%
    Likely amount 1-3mm 0-1mm 0-2mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 0-2mm
    UV index - - - - - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 32
    (km/h)
    35
    (km/h)
    29
    (km/h)
    32
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    Wind direction SW SW SW SW SW SSW WSW NE NW NW WNW WSW WSW SSW
    Relative humidity 76% 67% 72% 73% 78% 75% 79% 69% 73% 55% 64% 50% 68% 63%
    Dew point 8°C 10°C 7°C 11°C 11°C 13°C 10°C 11°C 8°C 10°C 8°C 8°C 7°C 9°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Cottage Point Rain Forecast


    Cottage Point 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    14
    HIGH
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    Aug 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul14

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 July to 31 July, 4 August to 8 August, and 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 July to 31 July, 1 August to 5 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Cottage Point Rain Forecast


    Cottage Point 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2020
    2021
    8
    8
    7
    8
    7
    8
    6
    10
    5
    7
    6
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jun 15

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific exhibited significant cooling over the past month, with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of -0.1in May. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of 2.8 during the same month. The current outlook suggests cooler than average SSTs will take hold across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during winter, potentially reaching La Nina thresholds by mid-spring. All eight international models continue to suggest a cooler side of neutral for the region throughout the remainder of the Austral winter and through spring. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) outlook suggests a 45:40 chance for La Nina:Neutral conditions by the end of the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. However, out of season Tropical CycloneMangga brought some significant cooling to the sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia late in May. This disrupted the warming trend in the region that would have led to a negative IOD by mid-winter. Nonetheless, all but one of the six main international models (BoMs outlook), continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing later in winter/first half of spring. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current short-term outlook now favours below average rainfall for most of the country for the remainder of June and early July. This outlook is mainly driven by cooler SSTs across northwestern Australia, reducing the amount of available moisture in the atmosphere. As discussed earlier, tropical cyclone Mangga was a key player in the cooling of the SSTs off the northwest coast. Most models, however, are indicating a positive IOD is still on the cards later in winter and through spring, bringing a wetter outlook for most of the southern half of the country from mid-to-lateJuly. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania, the outlook continues to favour average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tas) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Cottage Point Rain Forecast


    Cottage Point 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    14
    HIGH
    15
    LOW
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    LOW
    31
    Aug 1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    LOW
    8
    MEDIUM
    9
    HIGH
    10
    LOW
    11
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul14

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 July to 31 July, 4 August to 8 August, and 10 August to 14 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 July to 1 August. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 July to 31 July, 1 August to 5 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Cottage Point Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Jul 10
    9.8 °C 15.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Jul 11
    10.1 °C 14.8 °C
    4.4 mm
    Sunday
    Jul 12
    6.5 °C 17.0 °C
    2.2 mm
    Monday
    Jul 13
    6.8 °C 14.8 °C
    4.4 mm
    Tuesday
    Jul 14
    8.8 °C 14.2 °C
    18.4 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Cottage Point minimum temp history (33.6196°S, 151.2038°E, 53m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 21.8° 02/07/2020 Coldest this month 5.8° 06/07/2020
    Hottest on record 23.8 22/07/2016 Coldest on record 0.2 17/07/2007
    Hottest this year 44.5° 04/01/2020 Coldest this year 4.8° 03/06/2020
    Long term average 16.0° Long term average 7.6°
    Average this month 16.2° Average this month 8.4°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 16.9° 2014 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 6.5° 2015
    Cottage Point rainfall history (33.6196°S, 151.2038°E, 53m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 18.4mm 14/07/2020 Total This Month 37.2mm
    10.0 days
    Long Term Average 67.7mm 10.9 days Wettest July on record 210.6mm 2011
    Driest on record 13.6mm 2014
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Cottage Point Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 782.4mm 88.2 day(s)
    Total For 2020 643.8mm 107.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 584.4mm 77.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 61.6mm Mar 6
    Lowest Temperature 4.8°C Jun 3
    Highest Temperature 44.5°C Jan 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Cottage Point Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.7 26.0 24.7 22.0 19.5 16.5 16.0 17.8 20.6 22.8 24.1 25.3 21.9
    Mean Min (°C) 18.4 18.2 16.9 13.8 10.7 8.9 7.6 8.4 11.1 13.1 15.4 16.6 13.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 100.4 138.5 136.4 124.1 60.4 154.9 67.7 58.6 67.2 71.3 106.2 85.7 1170.4
    Mean Rain Days 13.8 14.0 14.1 13.1 8.5 13.8 10.9 9.1 9.5 10.8 12.9 11.8 129.7