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Forecast

Chilcotts Creek (31.6657°S, 150.8288°E, 583m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TOMORROW
    Windy 22° 32°
    Chance of rain: 50%
    Likely amount: 1-5mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:46am EDT 6:13am EDT 8:03pm EDT 8:30pm EDT
    NOW
    30.1° Feels Like: 24.1°
    Relative Humidity: 12%
    Dew: -2.4°
    Wind: NNW 19km/h
    Gust: 20km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1010.4hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Chilcotts Creek
    Now
    25.4°c
    Feels Like:
    24.0°
    Wind:
    NW 4km/h
    Gusts:
    6km/h
    Humidity:
    32%
    Windy
     
    22°
    Min
    32°
    Max
    Today in Chilcotts Creek
    Hot. Partly cloudy. Areas of raised dust in the afternoon. Medium chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe, with gusty winds on the S plains in the afternoon and evening. Winds NE 15 to 25 km/h turning N/NW 25 to 40 km/h during the morning then becoming N 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to 22 to 28 with daytime temperatures reaching 33 to 40.
    Tomorrow
    Windy
    22°
    Min
    32°
    Max
    Hot. Partly cloudy. High chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds N 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching 31 to 37.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Hot. Partly cloudy. Areas of raised dust in the afternoon. Medium chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe, with gusty winds on the S plains in the afternoon and evening. Winds NE 15 to 25 km/h turning N/NW 25 to 40 km/h during the morning then becoming N 15 to 25 km/h in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to 22 to 28 with daytime temperatures reaching 33 to 40.

    Forecast for Chilcotts Creek (31.6657°S, 150.8288°E, 583m AMSL)
      Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
    Summary Windy Thunderstorms Showers easing Showers Thunderstorms Thunderstorms Possible shower
    Minimum 22° 21° 19° 20° 20° 19° 19°
    Maximum 32° 29° 30° 28° 28° 30° 29°
    Chance of rain 50% 60% 40% 60% 90% 90% 70%
    Likely amount 1-5mm 5-10mm 1-5mm 5-10mm 5-10mm 5-10mm 1-5mm
    UV index Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 39
    (km/h)
    37
    (km/h)
    36
    (km/h)
    28
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    27
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    22
    (km/h)
    Wind direction N NNW N NW SSE S N N NNW NNW NNW WNW S S
    Relative humidity 66% 41% 77% 58% 87% 55% 82% 60% 85% 64% 80% 49% 83% 48%
    Dew point 19°C 17°C 18°C 20°C 19°C 20°C 19°C 19°C 19°C 20°C 18°C 17°C 18°C 17°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Chilcotts Creek Rain Forecast


    Chilcotts Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    HIGH
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 January to 3 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Chilcotts Creek Rain Forecast


    Chilcotts Creek 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    2020
    5
    6
    5
    7
    7
    8
    7
    4
    6
    5
    5
    7
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jan 14

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout December with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.4 throughout the month. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.5 in December. The current outlook suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Six out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first two quarters of 2020, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has now returned to neutral, as waters off Western Australia have warmed up considerably. All six international models maintain neutral values until the austral winter with indications we could see another positive event later this year. In terms of rainfall across Australia, the current outlook favours a clearer below average rainfall signal for Western Australia and the Northern Territory through the remainder of January. This however, excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. For the eastern states, there is a wetter than average signal for the coming weeks. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter February. The current outlook suggests average-to-below average odds for February and March across the eastern states. The northern and western half of the country, however, could see a wet end to summer/start to autumn.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Chilcotts Creek Rain Forecast


    Chilcotts Creek 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    MEDIUM
    26
    MEDIUM
    27
    HIGH
    28
    MEDIUM
    29
    LOW
    30
    31
    Feb 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    LOW
    4
    LOW
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jan22

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 January to 3 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 January to 3 February. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 January to 2 February, 13 February to 17 February, and 21 February to 25 February.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Chilcotts Creek Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Saturday
    Jan 18
    15.8 °C 18.2 °C
    0.4 mm
    Sunday
    Jan 19
    16.0 °C 24.6 °C
    15.2 mm
    Monday
    Jan 20
    16.7 °C 32.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jan 21
    18.2 °C 29.7 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jan 22
    16.5 °C 32 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Chilcotts Creek minimum temp history (31.6657°S, 150.8288°E, 583m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 38.7° 04/01/2020 Coldest this month 13.8° 13/01/2020
    Hottest on record 38.3 12/01/2013 Coldest on record 8.7 13/01/2012
    Hottest this year 38.7° 04/01/2020 Coldest this year 13.8° 13/01/2020
    Long term average 28.1° Long term average 16.4°
    Average this month 30.4° Average this month 17.2°
    Hottest January On Record Avg. max. temp. 30.3° 2014 Coldest January on record Avg. min. temp. 14.7° 2012
    Chilcotts Creek rainfall history (31.6657°S, 150.8288°E, 583m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 35.6mm 08/01/2020 Total This Month 73.6mm
    4.0 days
    Long Term Average 70.2mm 8.9 days Wettest January on record 163.8mm 2014
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Chilcotts Creek Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jan 70.2mm 8.9 day(s)
    Total For 2020 73.6mm 4.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 27.0mm 5.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 35.6mm Jan 8
    Lowest Temperature 13.8°C Jan13
    Highest Temperature 38.7°C Jan 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Chilcotts Creek Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 28.1 27.3 24.4 20.8 16.8 12.9 12.2 14.4 18.1 21.5 24.5 26.2 20.6
    Mean Min (°C) 16.4 15.8 14.1 11.1 8.2 5.9 4.8 5.8 8.5 10.9 13.3 14.6 10.8
    Mean Rain (mm) 70.2 73.6 74.8 35.2 36.3 80.0 52.6 43.1 50.0 49.3 88.6 93.7 745.9
    Mean Rain Days 8.9 8.2 9.4 8.9 8.5 13.9 12.1 9.1 7.2 8.5 10.1 11.1 108.3