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Forecast

Cessnock West (32.84°S, 151.3411°E, 87m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 22°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:20am EST 6:46am EST 5:16pm EST 5:42pm EST
    NOW
    4.6° Feels Like: 3.4°
    Relative Humidity: 99%
    Dew: 4.5°
    Wind: N 0km/h
    Gust: 0km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1016.3hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Cessnock West
    Now
    5.2°c
    Feels Like:
    3.8°
    Wind:
    N 0km/h
    Gusts:
    0km/h
    Humidity:
    90%
    Mostly sunny
     
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Today in Cessnock West
    Mostly sunny. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 23.
    Tomorrow
    Late shower
    11°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Mostly sunny day. Medium chance of showers in the late afternoon and evening. Winds NW 20 to 30 km/h turning W/SW in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 22 to 27.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Cessnock West

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Mostly sunny. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 23.

    Forecast for Cessnock West (32.84°S, 151.3411°E, 87m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Mostly sunny Late shower Showers Mostly sunny Sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 11° 10° 11°
    Maximum 22° 26° 19° 20° 17° 19° 19°
    Chance of rain 5% 50% 60% 10% 5% 5% 5%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Slight Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Slight
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 6
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    15
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    23
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    11
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NNW N NNW W SSW E NW WNW WNW W NW W WNW WNW
    Relative humidity 91% 47% 69% 42% 76% 58% 85% 33% 65% 35% 74% 36% 76% 39%
    Dew point 4°C 8°C 14°C 12°C 12°C 10°C 14°C 3°C 5°C 1°C 7°C 3°C 7°C 4°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Cessnock West Rain Forecast


    Cessnock West 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    Aug 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    HIGH
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Cessnock West Rain Forecast


    Cessnock West 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2021
    2022
    7
    7
    6
    7
    7
    6
    6
    10
    6
    7
    6
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 13

    ENSO status: Neutral, however two models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again from September. IOD status: Neutral, although it was negative for six weeks between mid-May and late-June SAM status: Negative. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, prompting the US Climate Prediction Centre to issue a La Niña Watch this week. Two models forecast temperatures reaching the La Niña threshold during September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although we saw six consecutive weeks below the negative IOD threshold between mid-May and late-June. The IOD index needs to stay below -0.4C for eight consecutive weeks to be officially declared as a negative IOD event. The IOD ducked back into neutral territory thanks to recent warming in the western Indian Ocean. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly values may enhance rainfallacross central and southern Australia. Three of the five models are forecasting the negative IOD to develop in winter, with another one indicating development in early spring. Most of the models suggest that the negative IOD will continue through until mid spring. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and southwestern TAS. The weekly negative IOD values may be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from southwestern TAS and WA. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Cessnock West Rain Forecast


    Cessnock West 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    Aug 1
    MEDIUM
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    HIGH
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    LOW
    21
    LOW
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Cessnock West Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Monday
    Jul 26
    8.1 °C 19.4 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Jul 27
    9.7 °C 20.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Wednesday
    Jul 28
    1.6 °C 24.0 °C
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jul 29
    6.9 °C 18.1 °C
    3.2 mm
    Friday
    Jul 30
    -0.9 °C 19.3 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Cessnock West minimum temp history (32.84°S, 151.3411°E, 87m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 24.0° 28/07/2021 Coldest this month -1.7° 06/07/2021
    Hottest on record 24.9 22/07/2016 Coldest on record -6.7 09/07/1971
    Hottest this year 38.1° 26/01/2021 Coldest this year -1.7° 06/07/2021
    Long term average 17.6° Long term average 4.2°
    Average this month 17.4° Average this month 4.6°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 18.8° 2013 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. 1.2° 2002
    Cessnock West rainfall history (32.84°S, 151.3411°E, 87m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 3.8mm 02/07/2021 Total This Month 19.4mm
    13.0 days
    Long Term Average 29.8mm 8.2 days Wettest July on record 124.8mm 1999
    Driest on record 0.0mm 1970
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Cessnock West Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 442.3mm 68.8 day(s)
    Total For 2021 541.6mm 88.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 568.6mm 80.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 86.8mm Mar20
    Lowest Temperature -1.7°C Jul 6
    Highest Temperature 38.1°C Jan26
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Cessnock West Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 30.5 29.4 27.4 24.3 20.8 17.9 17.6 19.5 22.6 25.4 27.2 29.2 24.3
    Mean Min (°C) 17.1 16.9 15.1 10.6 7.4 5.7 4.2 4.4 7.1 9.9 13.2 15.4 10.6
    Mean Rain (mm) 73.9 101.2 85.9 55.2 38.9 57.4 29.8 34.1 45.3 54.7 73.6 79.8 720.1
    Mean Rain Days 9.8 11.0 10.7 9.8 9.3 10.0 8.2 7.5 8.0 9.7 9.6 10.7 113.3