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Forecast

Caroona (31.407°S, 150.4262°E, 303m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Mostly sunny 21°
    mostly sunny
    Chance of rain: 5%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:21am EST 6:47am EST 5:21pm EST 5:47pm EST
    NOW
    7.0° Feels Like: 2.9°
    Relative Humidity: 72%
    Dew: 2.3°
    Wind: SE 13km/h
    Gust: 17km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: 1019.3hPa
  3. Today Weather

    Caroona
    Now
    6.9°c
    Feels Like:
    4.8°
    Wind:
    SE 4km/h
    Gusts:
    9km/h
    Humidity:
    80%
    Mostly sunny
     
    Min
    21°
    Max
    Today in Caroona
    Sunny. Patchy fog on the N slopes early this morning. Winds N/NE 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 25.
    Tomorrow
    Late shower
    10°
    Min
    25°
    Max
    Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower on the S slopes in the evening. Winds N/NW 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 9 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching 22 to 29.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Sunny. Patchy fog on the N slopes early this morning. Winds N/NE 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 25.

    Forecast for Caroona (31.407°S, 150.4262°E, 303m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Mostly sunny Late shower Showers Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 10° 10° 10°
    Maximum 21° 25° 21° 18° 15° 16° 17°
    Chance of rain 5% 50% 90% 60% 10% 10% 20%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate - -
    Frost risk Slight Nil Nil Nil Moderate Slight Moderate
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 10
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    12
    (km/h)
    17
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    20
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    19
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    13
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    6
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NE N NNE NW SE NW NW WNW WNW W WNW W WNW NW
    Relative humidity 66% 57% 78% 61% 84% 60% 90% 54% 74% 56% 80% 58% 77% 60%
    Dew point 7°C 12°C 13°C 17°C 12°C 13°C 13°C 8°C 4°C 6°C 6°C 8°C 6°C 9°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Caroona Rain Forecast


    Caroona 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    Aug 1
    2
    HIGH
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Caroona Rain Forecast


    Caroona 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    2021
    2022
    9
    7
    7
    7
    7
    7
    5
    10
    5
    7
    6
    8
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Jul 13

    ENSO status: Neutral, however two models suggest La Niña thresholds may be met again from September. IOD status: Neutral, although it was negative for six weeks between mid-May and late-June SAM status: Negative. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, there are growing signs that La Niña could redevelop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, prompting the US Climate Prediction Centre to issue a La Niña Watch this week. Two models forecast temperatures reaching the La Niña threshold during September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although we saw six consecutive weeks below the negative IOD threshold between mid-May and late-June. The IOD index needs to stay below -0.4C for eight consecutive weeks to be officially declared as a negative IOD event. The IOD ducked back into neutral territory thanks to recent warming in the western Indian Ocean. While a negative IOD has not been officially declared, the negative weekly values may enhance rainfallacross central and southern Australia. Three of the five models are forecasting the negative IOD to develop in winter, with another one indicating development in early spring. Most of the models suggest that the negative IOD will continue through until mid spring. During winter, much of the Australia is likely to be wetter than normal, apart from far southern WA and SA, southern VIC and southwestern TAS. The weekly negative IOD values may be influencing this outlook, potentially feeding moisture into cold fronts sweeping across central and southern Australia. Therefore a normal to above normal snow season is forecast. Springs rainfall at this stage is forecast to be above normal for much of the Australia, apart from southwestern TAS and WA. Again, the negative IOD values may be playing a role in this outlook.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Caroona Rain Forecast


    Caroona 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    31
    Aug 1
    2
    HIGH
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    LOW
    12
    MEDIUM
    13
    14
    15
    16
    LOW
    17
    LOW
    18
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    MEDIUM
    21
    22
    23
    MEDIUM
    24
    LOW
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jul31

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 1 September to 5 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August, 21 August to 25 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 22 August to 26 August.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Caroona Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    Jul 25
    - -
    -
    Monday
    Jul 26
    - -
    -
    Tuesday
    Jul 27
    - -
    -
    Wednesday
    Jul 28
    - -
    -
    Thursday
    Jul 29
    - -
    -
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Caroona minimum temp history (31.407°S, 150.4262°E, 303m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 15.0° 06/07/2021 Coldest this month -4.2° 07/07/2021
    Hottest on record 24.0 24/07/1990 Coldest on record -6.7 29/07/1965
    Hottest this year 37.4° 26/01/2021 Coldest this year -4.2° 07/07/2021
    Long term average 16.3° Long term average 2.0°
    Average this month 15.0° Average this month -4.2°
    Hottest July On Record Avg. max. temp. 18.3° 2013 Coldest July on record Avg. min. temp. -1.0° 1972
    Caroona rainfall history (31.407°S, 150.4262°E, 303m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 0.0mm 07/07/2021 Total This Month 0.0mm
    0.0 days
    Long Term Average 47.7mm 7.3 days Wettest July on record 187.2mm 1998
    Driest on record 0.8mm 1970
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Caroona Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jul 381.0mm 42.9 day(s)
    Total For 2021 383.6mm 31.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2020 546.6mm 63.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 54.6mm Jan 5
    Lowest Temperature -4.2°C Jul 7
    Highest Temperature 37.4°C Jan26
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Caroona Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 32.6 31.4 29.3 25.3 20.7 16.9 16.3 18.3 21.7 25.5 28.4 31.0 24.7
    Mean Min (°C) 17.2 16.6 14.0 9.5 5.8 3.2 2.0 2.8 5.6 9.3 12.6 15.1 9.4
    Mean Rain (mm) 79.4 65.5 54.0 39.8 43.2 51.4 47.7 44.2 46.1 58.7 66.1 80.6 676.9
    Mean Rain Days 7.0 5.8 5.2 4.7 5.5 7.4 7.3 6.8 6.2 7.1 7.3 7.3 77.7