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Forecast

Carnsdale (35.8666°S, 146.5167°E, 144m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Fog then sunny -2° 11°
    fog then sunny
    Chance of rain: 10%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    6:51am EST 7:19am EST 5:07pm EST 5:36pm EST
    NOW
    -1.7° Feels Like: -3.9°
    Relative Humidity: 99%
    Dew: -1.8°
    Wind: N 0km/h
    Gust: 0km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.2mm
    Pressure:  
  3. Today Weather

    Carnsdale
    Now
    1.7°c
    Feels Like:
    0.0°
    Wind:
    N 0km/h
    Gusts:
    0km/h
    Humidity:
    100%
    Fog then sunny
     
    -2°
    Min
    11°
    Max
    Today in Carnsdale
    Partly cloudy. Areas of fog and frost in the morning. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to around minus 1 with daytime temperatures reaching between 13 and 16.
    Tomorrow
    Frost then sunny
    -1°
    Min
    13°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming S 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the middle of the day. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 1 and 3 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching around 13.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

    There are no current warnings for Carnsdale

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog and frost in the morning. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to around minus 1 with daytime temperatures reaching between 13 and 16.

    Forecast for Carnsdale (35.8666°S, 146.5167°E, 144m AMSL)
      Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
    Summary Fog then sunny Frost then sunny Fog then sunny Fog then sunny Fog then sunny Fog then sunny Mostly cloudy
    Minimum -2° -1° -4° -3°
    Maximum 11° 13° 14° 15° 15° 16° 16°
    Chance of rain 10% 5% 5% 5% 10% 5% 50%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm
    UV index Low Low Low Low Low - -
    Frost risk Severe High Severe Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 3
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    4
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    8
    (km/h)
    Wind direction E WSW SE SSW SE SW E ENE E NE ESE S E ENE
    Relative humidity 93% 72% 92% 67% 84% 64% 84% 69% 84% 71% 88% 69% 80% 71%
    Dew point 2°C 6°C 3°C 7°C 0°C 8°C 1°C 10°C 4°C 10°C 5°C 10°C 4°C 10°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Carnsdale Rain Forecast


    Carnsdale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    30
    MEDIUM
    Jul 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun 5

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 June to 28 June, 28 June to 2 July, and 8 July to 12 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 June to 21 June, and 6 July to 10 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 June to 17 June, 24 June to 28 June, and 8 July to 12 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Carnsdale Rain Forecast


    Carnsdale 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    2020
    2021
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    8
    7
    6
    8
    7
    6
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued May 13

    ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout April with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.5. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -0.5 during the same month. The current outlook suggests slightly warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the end of autumn and early winter, potentially cooling by the second half of the austral winter. Eight out of eight international models continue to suggest a cooling trend of the NINO3.4 region throughout the Austral winter, with all models on the cooler side of neutral by September. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggests a 40:35 chance for neutral:La Nina conditions by the Austral spring. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. All six main international models, however, continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing from mid-to-late winter. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current medium term outlook continues to favour above average rainfall for most of the country. This outlook is mainly driven by warmer SSTs across northwestern Australia, enhanced soil moisture across some parts of the continent and early indications of a cool phase in the Pacific Ocean, which increases the moisture content across the northern tropics. Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania the outlook is for average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their ‘drier’ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tasmania) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This doesn’t include any severe weather events like east coast lows.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Carnsdale Rain Forecast


    Carnsdale 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    6
    LOW
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    LOW
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    LOW
    22
    LOW
    23
    24
    25
    26
    LOW
    27
    LOW
    28
    29
    30
    MEDIUM
    Jul 1
    2
    LOW
    3
    MEDIUM
    4
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Jun 5

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 June to 28 June, 28 June to 2 July, and 8 July to 12 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 June to 21 June, and 6 July to 10 July. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 June to 17 June, 24 June to 28 June, and 8 July to 12 July.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Carnsdale Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Sunday
    May 31
    4.0 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Jun 01
    8.4 °C -
    5.4 mm
    Tuesday
    Jun 02
    3.7 °C -
    5.6 mm
    Wednesday
    Jun 03
    3.7 °C -
    0.0 mm
    Thursday
    Jun 04
    - -
    -
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Carnsdale minimum temp history (35.8666°S, 146.5167°E, 144m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month - Coldest this month 3.7° 02/06/2020
    Hottest on record 23.0 02/06/1994 Coldest on record -5.0 14/06/2006
    Hottest this year 46.0° 04/01/2020 Coldest this year -1.9° 05/05/2020
    Long term average 14.2° Long term average 3.8°
    Average this month - Average this month 5.3°
    Hottest June On Record Avg. max. temp. 16.8° 2005 Coldest June on record Avg. min. temp. 1.2° 2006
    Carnsdale rainfall history (35.8666°S, 146.5167°E, 144m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 5.6mm 02/06/2020 Total This Month 11.0mm
    2.0 days
    Long Term Average 56.3mm 10.6 days Wettest June on record 166.2mm 1931
    Driest on record 6.6mm 1975
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for NSW/ACT

  16. Year to Date

    Carnsdale Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Jun 252.1mm 37.3 day(s)
    Total For 2020 280.1mm 34.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 158.6mm 38.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 85.0mm Mar 7
    Lowest Temperature -1.9°C May 5
    Highest Temperature 46.0°C Jan 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Carnsdale Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 32.0 31.5 28.0 22.8 18.1 14.2 13.1 15.0 17.9 22.0 26.3 29.5 22.5
    Mean Min (°C) 15.9 16.0 12.9 8.9 6.0 3.8 3.1 3.9 5.6 7.9 11.0 13.4 9.0
    Mean Rain (mm) 36.5 37.2 37.9 37.3 46.9 56.3 55.1 53.2 48.5 51.5 42.0 40.7 543.0
    Mean Rain Days 4.3 3.9 4.6 5.8 8.1 10.6 11.9 11.4 9.0 8.3 6.2 5.3 88.2