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Forecast

Careel Bay (33.6232°S, 151.3223°E, 53m AMSL) set as my default location ›

  1. My MLA

  2. Current condition

    TODAY
    Possible thunderstorm 20° 26°
    possible thunderstorm
    Chance of rain: 20%
    Likely amount: < 1mm
    First
    light
    Sunrise Sunset Last light
    Sunrise Sunset
    5:09am EDT 5:37am EDT 7:51pm EDT 8:19pm EDT
    NOW
    24.4° Feels Like: 25.8°
    Relative Humidity: 68%
    Dew: 18.1°
    Wind: NE 7km/h
    Gust: 9km/h
    Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm
    Pressure: &nbsp;
  3. Today Weather

    Careel Bay
    Now
    27.1°c
    Feels Like:
    27.1°
    Wind:
    E 18km/h
    Gusts:
    22km/h
    Humidity:
    64%
    Possible thunderstorm
     
    20°
    Min
    26°
    Max
    Today in Careel Bay
    Hot. Cloud clearing to a mostly sunny day. Slight chance of a gusty shower or thunderstorm later this afternoon or evening. Light winds becoming N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day, and reaching 30 to 50 km/h near the coast during the afternoon. Winds becoming light in the late evening.
    Tomorrow
    Mostly sunny
    21°
    Min
    22°
    Max
    Partly cloudy. Winds S/SW 25 to 35 km/h turning SE 15 to 25 km/h during the morning and early afternoon.
  4. Radar

  5. Popup Radar

  6. Warnings

  7. Next 48 Hours


    Next 48 Hours


  8. 7 day forecast

    Today: Hot. Cloud clearing to a mostly sunny day. Slight chance of a gusty shower or thunderstorm later this afternoon or evening. Light winds becoming N/NE 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day, and reaching 30 to 50 km/h near the coast during the afternoon. Winds becoming light in the late evening.

    Forecast for Careel Bay (33.6232°S, 151.3223°E, 53m AMSL)
      Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
    Summary Possible thunderstorm Mostly sunny Cloudy Mostly sunny Possible shower Mostly sunny Mostly sunny
    Minimum 20° 21° 18° 18° 20° 21° 18°
    Maximum 26° 22° 21° 24° 25° 25° 24°
    Chance of rain 20% 10% 20% 5% 40% 30% 20%
    Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 0-1mm 0-0.4mm < 1mm
    UV index - - - - - - -
    Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
      9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm
    Wind speed 22
    (km/h)
    30
    (km/h)
    26
    (km/h)
    24
    (km/h)
    16
    (km/h)
    18
    (km/h)
    5
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    21
    (km/h)
    14
    (km/h)
    10
    (km/h)
    7
    (km/h)
    9
    (km/h)
    Wind direction NE NE SSW SSE ENE ENE WSW E ENE NE W W NW ENE
    Relative humidity 76% 67% 71% 64% 72% 69% 76% 63% 77% 76% 61% 44% 55% 42%
    Dew point 18°C 20°C 16°C 14°C 14°C 15°C 17°C 17°C 19°C 20°C 15°C 12°C 12°C 11°C
  9. 28 Day Rainfall forecast

    Careel Bay Rain Forecast


    Careel Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    HIGH
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    HIGH
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec 1

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 December to 10 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 December to 11 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 19 December to 23 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 December to 10 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 20 December to 24 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  10. 12 Month Rainfall Forecast

    Careel Bay Rain Forecast


    Careel Bay 12-month Rainfall Forecast
    Dec
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    2020
    2021
    8
    7
    8
    8
    8
    6
    7
    6
    5
    6
    3
    10
    5
    0
    1
    2 - 3
    4 - 7
    8 - 9
    10
    Well below normal
    Below normal
    Near normal
    Above normal
    Well above normal

    Issue Notes - Issued Nov 11

    ENSO status: La Niña IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Positive La Niña is well underway in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters, with significant cooling observed during the last few months. The atmospheric and ocean conditions have both exceeded La Niña thresholds, increasing the confidence of La Niña influencing the outlook until at least the remainder of summer. The majority of models predict that La Niña will peak in December or January, with all models predicting the event will last until January, 6 of 8 models to February and 5 of 8 to March. Given we have observed both the atmosphere and the oceans responding to La Nina, the models have strengthened the event, with around half of the models predicting a strong event. The 2010-2012 La Niña event is different to this year, due to the influence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in 2010-2012, which enhanced the rainfall across Australia. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, which is likely tocontinue through to at least autumn. Two of six international models indicate a negative IOD during November, before becoming neutral in December. La Niña typically favours periods of positive SAM, which can increase the amount of precipitation along the eastern half of the country, due to prevailing onshore winds. La Niña increases the likelihood of above normal precipitation in spring and summer across much of Australia. The remainder of spring looks wetter than normal for much of Australia, except for parts of western WA and western TAS, where normal precipitation is expected. During summer, much of the country is likely to remain wetter than normal including western WA during these months. Western TAS precipitation outlook continues to be normal through summer. La Niña typically increases the number of cyclones and brings an early start to the northern wet season.

  11. Long range rainfall forecast

    Careel Bay Rain Forecast


    Careel Bay 28-day Rainfall Forecast
    SUN
    MON
    TUE
    WED
    THU
    FRI
    SAT
    Dec 1
    LOW
    2
    MEDIUM
    3
    4
    5
    MEDIUM
    6
    LOW
    7
    LOW
    8
    9
    10
    MEDIUM
    11
    LOW
    12
    LOW
    13
    LOW
    14
    LOW
    15
    MEDIUM
    16
    LOW
    17
    HIGH
    18
    MEDIUM
    19
    MEDIUM
    20
    HIGH
    21
    MEDIUM
    22
    MEDIUM
    23
    LOW
    24
    MEDIUM
    25
    HIGH
    26
    LOW
    27
    28
    29
    LOW
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT
    NIL < 25%
    LOW 25% to 50%
    MEDIUM 50% to 75%
    HIGH ≥ 75%
    Issued Dec 1

    Issue Notes

    The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    Summary:

    Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 December to 10 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 December to 11 December, 11 December to 15 December, and 19 December to 23 December. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 December to 10 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 20 December to 24 December.

    Forecast Explanation

    This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

    In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

  12. Popup - Daily historical

  13. Past 5 Days

    Careel Bay Past 5 Days

    This Month
    Minimum Maximum Rainfall
    Friday
    Nov 27
    17.1 °C 29.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Saturday
    Nov 28
    18.8 °C 39.8 °C
    0.0 mm
    Sunday
    Nov 29
    25.5 °C 39.9 °C
    0.0 mm
    Monday
    Nov 30
    16.8 °C 23.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Tuesday
    Dec 01
    17.5 °C 25.1 °C
    0.0 mm
    Legend
  14. Almanac

    Almanac


    Careel Bay minimum temp history (33.6232°S, 151.3223°E, 53m AMSL)
    MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
    Hottest this month 30.1° 12/11/2020 Coldest this month 11.0° 06/11/2020
    Hottest on record 40.4 01/12/2004 Coldest on record 9.3 06/12/2013
    Hottest this year 44.5° 04/01/2020 Coldest this year 3.0° 06/08/2020
    Long term average 24.1° Long term average 15.4°
    Average this month 25.0° Average this month 15.3°
    Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 28.4° 2005 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 14.7° 2011
    Careel Bay rainfall history (33.6232°S, 151.3223°E, 53m AMSL)
    RAINFALL
    Wettest This Month 17.4mm 06/11/2020 Total This Month 54.6mm
    11.0 days
    Long Term Average 106.2mm 12.9 days Wettest December on record 167.0mm 2014
    Driest on record 19.6mm 2015
  15. Popup - Radar

    Weather Radar for Australia

  16. Year to Date

    Careel Bay Year To Date

    Average Rainfall To Dec 1085.7mm 130.5 day(s)
    Total For 2020 1057.8mm 161.0 day(s)
    Total To This Day 2019 910.8mm 117.0 day(s)
    Wettest Day 82.2mm Oct26
    Lowest Temperature 3.0°C Aug 6
    Highest Temperature 44.5°C Jan 4
  17. Popup - Monthly historical

  18. Climatology

    Climate History

    Careel Bay Climatology

    Long-Term Averages
    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
    Mean Max (°C) 26.7 26.0 24.7 22.0 19.5 16.5 16.0 17.8 20.6 22.8 24.1 25.3 21.9
    Mean Min (°C) 18.4 18.2 16.9 13.8 10.7 8.9 7.6 8.4 11.1 13.1 15.4 16.6 13.3
    Mean Rain (mm) 100.4 138.5 136.4 124.1 60.4 154.9 67.7 58.6 67.2 71.3 106.2 85.7 1170.4
    Mean Rain Days 13.8 14.0 14.1 13.1 8.5 13.8 10.9 9.1 9.5 10.8 12.9 11.8 129.7