Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Minor Flood Warning For The Castlereagh River
Issued at 04:36 PM EDT on Saturday 04 April 2020
Flood Watch Number: 4
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT MENDOORAN
Heavy rainfall on Friday evening has caused river level rises along the upper Castlereagh River. This has resulted in minor flooding at Mendooran which peaked at 4.20 metres on Saturday morning.
Castlereagh River:
Minor flooding is occurring along the Castlereagh River.
The Castlereagh River at Mendooran peaked at 4.20 metres around 11:00 am Saturday with minor flooding and is currently at 3.62 metres and falling.
Flood Safety Advice:
In life threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately. If you require rescue, assistance to evacuate or other emergency help, ring NSW SES on 132 500.
* Avoid drowning. Stay out of rising water, seek refuge in the highest available place.
* Prevent damage to your vehicle. Move it under cover, away from areas likely to flood.
* Avoid being swept away. Stay out of fast-flowing creeks and storm drains.
* Never drive, ride or walk through flood water. Flood water can be deceptive and dangerous.}
For more emergency information, advice, and access to the latest river heights and rainfall observations and forecasts:
* NSW SES: www.ses.nsw.gov.au
* RMS Live Traffic: www.livetraffic.com
* Latest River Heights and Rainfall Observations: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/northwest.shtml
* Latest NSW Warnings: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/
* Rainfall Forecasts: www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
* BOM NSW Twitter: www.twitter.com/BOM_NSW
Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 10:00 am EST on Sunday 05 April 2020.
Latest River Heights:
Castlereagh River at Mendooran,3.62,Falling,04:00 PM SAT 04/04/20
Castlereagh River at Lucas Bridge,3.78,Rising,04:00 PM SAT 04/04/20
This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts.
Forecast
Bugaldie (31.1222°S, 149.11°E, 382m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TOMORROW
9° 18° Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
light
Last light Sunrise Sunset 5:53am EST 6:17am EST 5:55pm EST 6:19pm EST NOW12.6° Feels Like: 11.0° Relative Humidity: 79% Dew: 9.1° Wind: NW 7km/h Gust: 15km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1014.8hPa -
Today Weather
BugaldieNow14.6°cFeels Like:13.8°Wind:WSW 7km/hGusts:9km/hHumidity:83%
9°Min18°MaxToday in BugaldieSunny. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 25.Tomorrow
9°Min18°MaxSunny. Light winds becoming S/SW 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 12 with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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Next 48 Hours
Next 48 Hours
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7 day forecast
Today: Sunny. Winds S/SW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 8 and 13 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 25.
Forecast for Bugaldie (31.1222°S, 149.11°E, 382m AMSL) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Summary 
Minimum 9° 9° 10° 11° 11° 11° 12° Maximum 18° 19° 20° 20° 21° 21° 20° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 40% 20% 20% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm UV index - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 5
(km/h)14
(km/h)5
(km/h)14
(km/h)14
(km/h)8
(km/h)12
(km/h)9
(km/h)18
(km/h)12
(km/h)9
(km/h)8
(km/h)8
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction WSW WSW SSW SW SE ESE E E ESE ESE ENE W WSW WSW Relative humidity 65% 47% 61% 47% 66% 49% 68% 54% 67% 48% 69% 54% 68% 52% Dew point 8°C 7°C 7°C 7°C 9°C 9°C 10°C 10°C 9°C 10°C 11°C 11°C 12°C 10°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bugaldie Rain Forecast
Bugaldie 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
6
7
8
LOW9
10
11
LOW12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
LOW17
18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
25
LOW26
27
LOW28
MEDIUM29
30
May 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Apr 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 April to 14 April, 16 April to 20 April, and 5 May to 9 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 April to 20 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 April to 15 April, 17 April to 21 April, and 5 May to 9 May.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bugaldie Rain Forecast
Bugaldie 12-month Rainfall ForecastAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb20202021767766510657105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Mar 9
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Neutral SAM status: Trending neutral Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout February with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.3. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -2.2 in February. The current outlook suggests slightly warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the austral autumn, potentially cooling further by the austral winter. Four out of seven international models maintain a slightly warmer than average equatorial Pacific Ocean through the first half of winter. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. All six international models maintain neutral IOD values through to the austral winter. In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current outlook favours below average rainfall for western, central and southeastern parts of the country. Across NSW and Qld, the outlook is for average-to-above average, mainly across the Qld coasts. This excludes any extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones or East Coast Lows. Across the north, the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) has been quiet for most of the wet season, with the current prognosis suggesting below average rainfall for March but above average in April. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter end of autumn/winter. The current consensus, however, suggests that average to above average rainfall is a possibility across northern, western and parts of the inland south east.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bugaldie Rain Forecast
Bugaldie 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT4
HIGH5
6
7
8
LOW9
10
11
LOW12
LOW13
14
LOW15
16
LOW17
18
LOW19
MEDIUM20
LOW21
LOW22
23
24
25
LOW26
27
LOW28
MEDIUM29
30
May 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Apr 4Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 April to 14 April, 16 April to 20 April, and 5 May to 9 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 April to 20 April. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 April to 15 April, 17 April to 21 April, and 5 May to 9 May.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bugaldie Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Tuesday
Mar 3113.2 °C 25.8 °C 24.6 mmWednesday
Apr 0110.1 °C 27.5 °C 0.3 mmThursday
Apr 0213.0 °C 21.0 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Apr 0316.5 °C 20.0 °C 10.4 mmSaturday
Apr 0417.0 °C - 32.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bugaldie minimum temp history (31.1222°S, 149.11°E, 382m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 27.5° 01/04/2020 Coldest this month 10.1° 01/04/2020 Hottest on record 35.0 04/04/1986 Coldest on record -3.6 29/04/1978 Hottest this year 42.4° 05/01/2020 Coldest this year 8.5° 19/03/2020 Long term average 24.1° Long term average 7.5° Average this month 22.8° Average this month 14.2° Hottest April On Record Avg. max. temp. 27.6° 2005 Coldest April on record Avg. min. temp. 3.9° 1997 Bugaldie rainfall history (31.1222°S, 149.11°E, 382m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 32.0mm 04/04/2020 Total This Month 42.7mm
3.0 daysLong Term Average 52.0mm 5.1 days Wettest April on record 342.6mm 1950 Driest on record 0.0mm 1897 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Bugaldie Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Apr 286.2mm 24.4 day(s) Total For 2020 443.1mm 37.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2019 172.4mm 21.0 day(s) Wettest Day 62.5mm Feb19 Lowest Temperature 8.5°C Mar19 Highest Temperature 42.4°C Jan 5 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Climate History
Bugaldie Climatology
Bugaldie Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.4 30.7 28.1 24.1 19.5 16.0 15.1 17.0 20.4 24.2 27.5 30.2 23.7 Mean Min (°C) 15.6 15.2 12.1 7.5 3.8 1.6 0.4 1.1 3.9 7.5 10.9 13.6 7.8 Mean Rain (mm) 89.7 81.0 63.5 52.0 53.5 57.5 55.2 52.5 51.3 59.4 64.4 70.4 750.1 Mean Rain Days 7.2 6.3 5.8 5.1 6.2 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.3 80.9
