Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Fire Weather Warning
for Far North Coast, North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 04:47 AM EDT on Friday 06 December 2019
Weather Situation
Warm and dry westerly winds will result in elevated fire dangers across the northern and eastern parts of New South Wales.
For the rest of Friday 06 December:
Severe Fire Danger for the following areas:
Far North Coast, North Coast, Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Central Ranges, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western
Very High Fire Danger for the following areas:
Southern Ranges
The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.rfs.nsw.gov.au.
No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Forecast
Bugaldie (31.1222°S, 149.11°E, 382m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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My MLA
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Current condition
TODAY19° 33° mostly sunny Chance of rain: 5% Likely amount: < 1mm First
lightLast light Sunrise Sunset 5:25am EDT 5:53am EDT 7:56pm EDT 8:24pm EDT NOW31.4° Feels Like: 22.2° Relative Humidity: 11% Dew: -2.6° Wind: WSW 35km/h Gust: 50km/h Rainfall since 9am: 0.0mm Pressure: 1011.0hPa -
Today Weather
BugaldieNow34.9°cFeels Like:28.0°Wind:WSW 26km/hGusts:39km/hHumidity:12%19°Min33°MaxToday in BugaldieHot and sunny. Possible smoke haze on the eastern slopes. Light winds becoming W 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day then tending SW 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 34 to 39.Tomorrow16°Min32°MaxSunny. Light winds becoming SW 15 to 25 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 15 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 33 to 38. -
Radar
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Popup Radar
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Warnings
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7 day forecast
Today: Hot and sunny. Possible smoke haze on the eastern slopes. Light winds becoming W 20 to 30 km/h in the middle of the day then tending SW 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Daytime maximum temperatures 34 to 39.
Forecast for Bugaldie (31.1222°S, 149.11°E, 382m AMSL) Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Summary Minimum 19° 16° 17° 18° 23° 23° 21° Maximum 33° 32° 34° 36° 38° 37° 34° Chance of rain 5% 5% 5% 5% 10% 70% 40% Likely amount < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 1-5mm 1-5mm UV index - - - - - - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 3
(km/h)23
(km/h)10
(km/h)17
(km/h)9
(km/h)10
(km/h)16
(km/h)10
(km/h)17
(km/h)11
(km/h)14
(km/h)14
(km/h)13
(km/h)18
(km/h)Wind direction WNW WSW S SW ESE WSW ENE N NNE NW NE WNW NNW W Relative humidity 21% 11% 19% 9% 29% 10% 47% 18% 46% 15% 32% 13% 37% 19% Dew point 4°C -1°C -1°C -4°C 6°C -1°C 13°C 8°C 16°C 7°C 11°C 5°C 12°C 7°C -
28 Day Rainfall forecast
Bugaldie Rain Forecast
Bugaldie 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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12 Month Rainfall Forecast
Bugaldie Rain Forecast
Bugaldie 12-month Rainfall ForecastDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov20192020246775765637105012 - 34 - 78 - 910Well below normalBelow normalNear normalAbove normalWell above normalIssue Notes - Issued Nov 8
ENSO status: Neutral IOD status: Positive Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific warmed up slightly over the past few weeks. As a reflection, the Nino3.4 index lingered between 0.5 and 0.7 throughout the month of October. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -5.6 during the past month. The current outlook consensus suggests warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the coming months, but remaining within neutral values. Five out of eight international models maintain a warmer than average Pacific Ocean through the end of 2019 and first quarter of 2020, however, none of these reaching El Nino thresholds. The IRI ENSO forecast continues to suggest less than 40% of another El Nino developing over the next 12 months, with a neutral ENSO the most likely outcome. To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains strongly positive, with the highest positive value since the early 2000s. All six international models maintain a strong positive event until December. In terms of rainfall, there is little variation to the outlook issued last month. The climate outlook for October continues to favour below average rainfall for most of Australia, in particular the eastern half of the continent. During Positive IODs, central and southeastern Australia tend to see a reduction in rainfall during spring, due to a reduction of moisture streaming from the northwest. For northern Australia, the current outlook is for a late onset of the wet season across the Northern Territory and Queensland. Thus far, Darwin and South Eastern Qld have seen the onset of the wet season this year though a week later than usual. Further south, a negative trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will continue to enhance frontal activity over the far south during October and early. This is likely to offset the Positive IOD in far southern Victoria and western Tasmania, which could see average-to-above average rainfall during October and early December. Looking further ahead, with no significant signature from ENSO, there are no significant climate drivers tilting the balance towards a drier or wetter summer. The current outlook suggest neutral odds.
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Long range rainfall forecast
Bugaldie Rain Forecast
Bugaldie 28-day Rainfall ForecastSUNMONTUEWEDTHUFRISAT6
7
8
9
10
LOW11
MEDIUM12
MEDIUM13
14
LOW15
16
17
18
19
20
21
LOW22
LOW23
LOW24
25
26
27
28
LOW29
30
31
Jan 1
2
3
CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICTNIL < 25%LOW 25% to 50%MEDIUM 50% to 75%HIGH ≥ 75%Issued Dec 6Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 14 December to 18 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 5 January to 9 January. Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 December to 17 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January.
Forecast ExplanationThis forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Popup - Daily historical
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Past 5 Days
Bugaldie Past 5 Days
This MonthMinimum Maximum Rainfall Monday
Dec 0212.0 °C 20.2 °C 0.6 mmTuesday
Dec 035.0 °C 26.0 °C 0.0 mmWednesday
Dec 0410.4 °C 29.0 °C 0.0 mmThursday
Dec 059.0 °C 32 °C 0.0 mmFriday
Dec 0611 °C - 0.0 mmLegend -
Almanac
Almanac
Bugaldie minimum temp history (31.1222°S, 149.11°E, 382m AMSL) MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE Hottest this month 32.0° 05/12/2019 Coldest this month 5.0° 03/12/2019 Hottest on record 40.5 17/12/1982 Coldest on record 2.7 13/12/1995 Hottest this year 42.0° 16/01/2019 Coldest this year -6.0° 22/06/2019 Long term average 30.2° Long term average 13.6° Average this month 26.8° Average this month 10.4° Hottest December On Record Avg. max. temp. 34.7° 1979 Coldest December on record Avg. min. temp. 11.5° 1964 Bugaldie rainfall history (31.1222°S, 149.11°E, 382m AMSL) RAINFALL Wettest This Month 0.6mm 02/12/2019 Total This Month 0.6mm
1.0 daysLong Term Average 70.4mm 7.3 days Wettest December on record 293.6mm 1979 -
Popup - Radar
Weather Radar for NSW/ACT
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Year to Date
Bugaldie Year To Date
Average Rainfall To Dec 750.4mm 81.9 day(s) Total For 2019 294.5mm 55.0 day(s) Total To This Day 2018 268.0mm 59.0 day(s) Wettest Day 57.8mm Mar30 Lowest Temperature -6.0°C Jun22 Highest Temperature 42.0°C Jan16 -
Popup - Monthly historical
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Climatology
Bugaldie Climatology
Bugaldie Long-Term Averages
Long-Term Averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann Mean Max (°C) 31.4 30.7 28.1 24.1 19.5 16.0 15.1 17.0 20.4 24.2 27.5 30.2 23.7 Mean Min (°C) 15.6 15.2 12.1 7.5 3.8 1.6 0.4 1.1 3.9 7.5 10.9 13.6 7.8 Mean Rain (mm) 89.7 81.0 63.5 52.0 53.5 57.5 55.2 52.5 51.3 59.4 64.4 70.4 750.1 Mean Rain Days 7.2 6.3 5.8 5.1 6.2 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.3 80.9